There may be a “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality at play with Apple Watch product marketing. Apple’s current Apple Watch strategy involving health (and fitness) seems to be connecting with customers as seen by Apple Watch unit sales (the following are my estimates):
2018: 22 million units
2019: 26 million
2020: 31 million
Accordingly, Apple may be bypassing certain features for watchOS that would fundamentally move the Apple Watch away from being an intelligent health companion device.
2) Apple is close to announcing its entry into face wearables. Apple may not want to spend years positioning Apple Watch as a certain kind of device only to have it be surpassed by a pair of lightweight smart glasses (AR / mixed reality). Instead, Apple is focused on pushing Apple Watch in a direction that it is confident will complement a pair of smart glasses. This results in Apple making a notable push on the health front from both a hardware (sensors) and software perspective while other functionality is kept on the back burner with the intention of having it show up in face wearables.
A Different Approach
Just as it’s easy to say that Apple is doing something wrong, the claim is worthless if counter suggestions aren’t given. If Apple needs to make a change with Apple Watch, what should that change be?
One issue that is starting to become noticeable is Apple not expanding Apple Watch’s functionality fast enough. Using health to anchor Apple Watch marketing may indeed be a good way for Apple to grab new Apple Watch users. For some, the Apple Watch makes for a great health / fitness companion and nothing more. Those users should be able to continue using Apple Watch for health monitoring without needing to mess or deal with extraneous software or features.
However, Apple is not pushing Apple Watch enough from the perspective of being an iPhone alternative. The Siri watch face is a bridge to the future and yet all signs point to few people using the face. The lack of updates certainly hasn't helped in improving adoption. There are signs of deeper issues at play. According to Apple, Photos is the most popular watch face. That may seem innocent enough. However, Apple Watch watch faces were once positioned as apps. This turned to watch face complications. Why then are Apple Watch wearers using the most simplistic and data-free watch faces such as Photos? This may be a sign that Apple needs to reexamine the concept of watch faces as apps. Users likely don’t want to interact with various complications or even watch faces. This doesn’t mean that users do not want additional functionality from Apple Watch. A more likely answer is that users like the ease and simplicity found with the Photos watch face. (With this, they are still able to receive all of their notifications, messages, and alerts).
Instead of pushing increasingly complicated Watch faces, legacy watch faces, or bringing a version of multitasking to Apple Watch, the additional functionality given to Apple Watch would materialize in the form of machine learning pushing more information and context to the wearer throughout the day. The only information one would need to see on their wrist would be based on one’s:
Daily habit (provide the upcoming weather each morning at the same time given prior habits, give driving time information to the local coffee shop frequented each morning).
Current activity (push news alerts while seated at the coffee shop).
Location (suggest items that may be of importance to the wearer’s current location).
Schedule ( provide information that is relevant to an upcoming meeting, reminder, or event).
Notice how all of those items involve action verbs - provide, give, push, and suggest. That is Apple Watch’s future - an intelligent assistant that helps people get through their day.
With an Apple Watch installed base quickly approaching 125 million people, even if only a portion of Apple Watch users are interested in this additional functionality, we are still looking at tens of millions of people, and that number will prove to be conservative over time. It’s not enough to anchor watchOS releases around new health features, a new portrait photos watch face, and GIF support in messages.
The Apple Watch already has the pieces required for handling additional functionality:
An always-on screen with superb line of sight for the wearer.
A smart digital assistant that increasingly knows more about the wearer’s past, current, and future activity. (This is where having an ecosystem of devices that is also home to the digital assistant will help.)
A developer base that is increasingly embracing Apple Watch and watchOS.
As for the idea that an eventual Apple Glasses launch should dictate how Apple positions the Apple Watch in 2021, a pair of lightweight glasses from Apple is likely still a few years away. It’s odd for Apple to put the Apple Watch on the proverbial ice when it comes to non-health initiatives in response to a product that is still years away. Even in a world with Apple Glasses, it is not a given that Apple Watch will even be a competitor. Glasses may not be the best form factor to push information to the wearer throughout the day, even if it’s through peripheral vision. Instead, Apple Glasses would be aimed at helping the wearer navigate the world while the Apple Watch would be more of a digital assistant / monitor focused on providing granular information throughout the day. Also, the Apple Watch is well-positioned to help power a pair of Apple Glasses given the amount of real estate available on the wrist for storing technology and sensors.
Giving the Siri watch face a much-needed reboot in watchOS 9 would be a great start at unleashing a new layer of Apple Watch functionality. Such a reboot can be wrapped around a series of new Watch faces that amount to pushing different kinds of information to the user throughout the day while retaining much of the simplicity found with the Photos face. Apple can increase the number of available cards in the Siri watch face and push card development as a key priority for watch developers interested in getting in front of users. In addition, a more concentrated focus on selling Siri on your wrist and enhanced notifications control will go a long way. This could set Apple up for eventually including a front-facing camera on Apple Watch for FaceTime calls (with software that auto-centers the subject so that one can’t tell you are using an Apple Watch to make calls).
One lesson from this year’s WWDC is that Apple isn’t just pushing individual product categories forward but rather using devices and services to push an ecosystem forward. For a product like Apple Watch, Apple’s goal should be positioning the device as both taking advantage of its unique design attributes while also helping to add value to other Apple devices. The Apple Watch is the most popular watch in the world. It’s time for Apple to begin unleashing more of Apple Watch’s potential.
Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.
Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
For additional discussion on this topic, check out the Above Avalon daily update from June 24th.
