Hello everyone. It's good to be back after a long weekend. We will kick off this holiday-shortened week with two news stories that appeared on Neil’s radar. The update begins with Neil’s thoughts on the latest news from the Apple Vision Pro supply chain. Odds are increasing that we won’t know Vision Pro demand for quite some time after launch. The discussion then turns to Goldman Sachs reportedly looking to get out of its Apple partnership which raised various implications for Apple.

More Smoke for Apple Vision Pro Production Issues

Here’s The Financial Times:

“Apple has been forced to make drastic cuts to production forecasts for the mixed-reality Vision Pro headset, unveiled last month after seven years in development and hailed as its most significant product launch since the iPhone.

The complexity of the headset design and difficulties in production are behind the scaling back of targets, while plans for a more affordable version of the device have had to be pushed back, according to multiple people with direct knowledge of the manufacturing process...

Two people close to Apple and Luxshare, the Chinese contract manufacturer that will initially assemble the device, said it was preparing to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024. Multiple industry sources said Luxshare was currently Apple’s only assembler of the device. Separately, two China-based sole suppliers of certain components for the Vision Pro said Apple was only asking them for enough for 130,000 to 150,000 units in the first year.”

The FT’s report adds credibility to TheElec’s report from last month which said Sony will be able to produce enough OLEDoS (OLED on Silicon) for about 450,000 headsets. Each headset contains two postage stamp-sized OLEDoS displays (one for each eye).

The ~450,000 headsets per year figure didn’t appear to include any impact from yield issues or other manufacturing difficulties. With those issues in mind, a more realistic supply figure would be

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Hello everyone.

Apple reports earnings next Thursday (Feb 2nd). We will go over my expectations early next week.

For today's update, we kick things off with Tesla and then switch to Apple Card.

Tesla Earnings

Heading into Tesla’s earnings, there was an increase in anxiety regarding demand for Tesla vehicles. While it was too early to say Tesla faced a demand “problem,” cracks were starting to form in the company's growth story.

Here’s Tesla kicking off its 4Q22 update:

“Q4-2022 was another record-breaking quarter and 2022 was another record-breaking year. In the last quarter, we achieved the highest-ever quarterly revenue, operating income and net income in our history. In 2022, total revenue grew 51% YoY to $81.5B and net income (GAAP) more than doubled YoY to $12.6B.

As we progress into 2023, we know that there are questions about the near-term impact of an uncertain macroeconomic environment, and in particular, with rising interest rates. The Tesla team is used to challenges, given the culture required to get the company to where it is today. In the near term we are accelerating our cost reduction roadmap and driving towards higher production rates, while staying focused on executing against the next phase of our roadmap.”

Thanks to 4Q22 price cuts, some weakness in deliveries, and inflation, core gross margins – excluding ZEV credits and FSD recognition – declined to 22% from 27% the previous year. The concern some have is that

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More Smoke for Apple Vision Pro Production Issues, Goldman Sachs Looking For Way out of Apple Partnership

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Tesla Earnings, Goldman Sachs Pulls Back on Consumer Business, Apple Card’s Future (Daily Update)

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