The Secret to Apple's Ecosystem

Apple’s ecosystem remains misunderstood. While consensus has come around to accepting the sheer size of Apple’s ecosystem (a billion users and nearly 1.6 billion devices), there is still much unknown as to what makes the ecosystem tick. From what does Apple’s ecosystem derive its power? Why do loyalty and satisfaction rates increase as customers move deeper into the ecosystem? Apple’s ecosystem ends up being about more than just a collection of devices or services. Apple has been quietly building something much larger, and it’s still flying under the radar.

Products

No company is able to match Apple in offering a cohesive and strategically forward-looking product line. Computers small and light enough to be worn on the body are sold next to computers so large that built-in handles are required. More impressively, all of these products are designed to work seamlessly together.

The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products outlines how each of Apple’s major product categories is designed to help make technology more personal - to reduce the barriers that exist between technology and the user.

 
 

Products are designed to handle tasks once handled by more powerful siblings. New form factors are then able to handle new tasks in unique and different ways. It is the pursuit of making technology more personal that ends up being responsible for devices like Apple Watch and AirPods. The same dynamic is also paving the way for Apple to eventually sell wearables for the face in the form of smart glasses. (More on The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products is found in the Above Avalon Report, “Product Vision: How Apple Thinks About the World,” available here for Above Avalon members.)

With 1.6 billion devices in use, it may be natural to conclude that devices are the source of Apple’s ecosystem power. This has led some to position the iPhone as the sun in Apple’s ecosystem with other products being the planets revolving around the sun. However, this is a misread of the role Apple devices are actually playing in the ecosystem. Just because the iPhone is used by more people than any other Apple device, it is incorrect to assume that will always be the case, or more importantly, that other devices are in some way inferior to the iPhone when it comes to handling workflows. There is something much larger at play here than just a billion users enjoying Apple hardware.

Services

With a $55 billion revenue annual run rate and 518 million paid subscriptions across its platforms, there is no longer a debate as to Apple’s ability to succeed with services. However, there is still a lack of consensus as to what role services play in Apple’s ecosystem. Decisions like bringing Apple Music to third-party speakers and the Apple TV app to third-party TV sets have confused many with some going so far as to conclude that Apple’s future is one of a services company.

In such a world, Apple devices lose much of their value to cheap third-party hardware. This school of thought is responsible for claims that Apple gave up selling accessories like the Apple TV box and HomePod because customers can access Apple content distribution services on cheaper non-Apple hardware. It’s difficult to think of a bigger misread of how Apple thinks and operates as a company than to claim that Apple’s future is one of a services company.

There are now others who look at Apple’s financial success with services as a negative - a sign of Apple milking existing users of as much profit as possible. This school of thought positions paid services as a long-term liability to the Apple ecosystem.

A Toolmaker

While consensus credits products (hardware) as the source of Apple’s ecosystem power, services are increasingly viewed as a hidden risk factor that can crack holes in the ecosystem. Neither are true. Nearly a billion people are not using iPhones simply because they enjoy the hardware. Vice-versa, having 518 million paid subscriptions is not a sign of Apple users needing to pay some kind of tax or bounty to remain in Apple’s ecosystem.

From where then does Apple’s ecosystem derive its power? What makes a customer want to move deeper into the Apple ecosystem?

To answer these questions, we need to step back from any one product or service and instead look at Apple as a company. It is still common for people to call Apple by whatever is its best-selling or most popular product at any one time. This also applies to whatever product is responsible for revenue growth. As a result, we hear all too often phrases like Apple is an iPhone company, a services company, or even a wearables company. The problem is that Apple shouldn’t be defined by any one product, but rather the process that led to Apple having an ecosystem of products and services.

Apple is a design company selling tools that can improve people’s lives. These aren’t just any tools either. Instead, Apple is very selective in selling tools that are able to foster experiences that people are willing to pay for - something that has become increasingly rare in the consumer tech space. By having a design-led culture, Apple is able to put the user experience front-and-center during product development.

This experiences mandate ends up being responsible for Apple’s high loyalty and satisfaction rates. The 975 million people with an iPhone aren’t likely to remain iPhone users because of stellar hardware or compelling software powering that hardware. Instead, loyalty is driven by the experiences associated with using an iPhone.

An Experiences Ecosystem

The secret to Apple’s ecosystem is that instead of selling products or services, Apple ends up selling experiences made possible by controlling hardware, software, and services.

Instead of thinking of Apple’s ecosystem in terms of the number of people or devices, a different approach is to consider the number of experiences Apple is offering. This is where Apple’s true ambitions become visible. By using an iPhone, a customer doesn’t just receive one experience per day. Instead, nearly everything that is consumed on the device has the potential of leading to a good (or bad) experience. This is why Apple’s control of hardware, software, and services plays such a crucial role. Apple’s ecosystem likely consists of tens, if not hundreds of billions, of experiences in a single day.

Having an ecosystem of experiences ultimately represents the biggest challenge to Apple competitors. Coming up with an iPhone alternative isn’t good enough for enticing users to jump from the Apple ship. Instead, competitors need to come up with even better experiences than those found in the Apple ecosystem. As a user moves deeper into the Apple ecosystem - in pursuit of additional premium experiences - competitors need to figure out a way of recreating that growing list of experiences. Can it even be done? When looking at the wearables industry, the answer as of today is “no.”

Non-Apple Hardware

One of the most intriguing aspects of Apple’s ecosystem is how nearly half of Apple users still only use just one Apple device: an iPhone. The idea that every Apple user owns a multitude of Apple devices and services is wrong. The implication is that Apple’s billion users own (and use) quite a bit of non-Apple hardware. Today, non-Apple hardware used by iPhone owners include TV sets, cheap stationary speakers, and CarPlay-equipped automobiles.

Since Apple’s product strategy and organizational structure rewards saying “no” more than “yes,” there will likely always be opportunities for other companies selling hardware to participate in the Apple ecosystem. This ends up being a Trojan Horse for Apple.

Instead of needing to have a new customer jump with both feet into the Apple ecosystem from Day 1, something that isn’t likely especially as the next marginal customer will be coming from the middle tier of the market, Apple merely needs this customer to buy or use one Apple tool.

Management is confident that one tool will eventually turn into two tools and then three since humans gravitate toward premium experiences. As one’s Apple tool collection grows, the number of experiences made possible by those tools increases. This has the impact of increasing customer satisfaction and loyalty. And the flywheel continues to turn. In order to get this flywheel moving in the first place, Apple must build bridges allowing new customers to move deeper into the ecosystem. Decisions like making Apple Music available on non-Apple hardware and bringing the Apple TV app to Samsung TVs are examples of such bridges.

Evolution

When thinking about how Apple’s ecosystem will evolve, the focus shouldn’t be on which new devices or services Apple can come up with, but rather on how Apple can offer new experiences to its customers. The blueprint for creating such experiences is already known: leveraging control over hardware, software, and services.

Technology’s battle lines are currently being redrawn with the goal being to capture the most valuable real estate in our lives: our health, homes, and transportation. Bets on software that completely reimagines the way we approach these verticals will likely prove to be good bets. Timing remains the big unknown.

This raises a question: How will Apple approach new verticals and industries? Would Apple attempt to recreate entirely new device lineups for each industry? Will The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products be torn apart?

Instead of selling a $80,000 electric car or moving head-first into selling a range of first-party smart home hardware, Apple’s current ecosystem provides clues as to how the company can approach these new industries.

  • The point of Apple entering transportation wouldn’t be to sell cars, mopeds, or bicycles. Instead, it would be to sell experiences that Apple customers can consume on the road.

  • The point of Apple moving deeper into smart homes wouldn’t be to sell a plethora of small home gadgets and trinkets, some of which may require an electrician to install. Instead, it would be to sell experiences that Apple customers can consume in the home.

Apple developing an autonomous car remains difficult for many to wrap their minds around. The idea of Apple one day getting into housing is still considered a fantasy by most. However, such ideas make a lot of sense when thinking about how we consume experiences during the day.

An autonomous car is nothing more than a room on wheels. A house is a series of rooms connected to each other. With each, Apple would be looking to create environments that can support new experiences.

This brings us back to Apple’s current suite of products and services. It is incorrect to assume that Apple entering new industries would result in the company throwing its current products out the window. Instead, those tools stand to play major roles in delivering experiences in new industries.

Apple’s interest with Project Titan isn’t to beat or copy Tesla, but rather to figure out a way to have personal gadgets provide compelling experiences on the road. Such experiences could include Apple Glasses being used to find the right autonomous Apple Car to enter while Apple Watches can be used as identification for entry. Once inside the vehicle, the digital assistant found on the wrist or in front of our eyes could then be used to convert the car’s hardware to suit our needs. A similar dynamic would be found with smart homes - relying on personal gadgets, especially wearables, to come up with premium experiences in the home. We are seeing the early stages of this with products like HomePod and the way the device can be seamlessly used with Apple Watch.

The idea that Apple would enter the transportation and housing industries simply to come up with more areas for its users to engage with wearables may seem preposterous today. However, the idea that a single company would be able to deliver hundreds of billions of experiences per day by selling tools consisting of hardware, software, and services was similarly once a fantasy.

Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.

Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.

For additional discussion on this topic, check out the Above Avalon daily update from July 23rd.

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 162: The Apple Question

At the start of a new year, there is less value found in coming up with predictions than there is in looking at questions facing the company. In episode 162, Neil goes over his list of questions for Apple in 2020, and the discussion culminates with one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity. Additional topics include why predictions contain so little value, the number of Apple users, and Apple in emerging markets.

To listen to episode 162, go here. 

The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here. 

The Big Question Now Facing Apple

Predictions are nothing more than attempts at manufacturing clarity for what is inherently a sea of unknown. With New Year predictions, two things need to happen. The person issuing the prediction needs to come up with what may happen, and the predicted event has to occur within an arbitrary time period. The probability of finding value in such an exercise is low.

Instead of coming up with predictions for Apple at the start of a new year, there is value found in embracing the unknown and looking at questions facing the company. This has led to my annual tradition of coming up with a set of questions facing Apple at the start of a new year. The irony found with questions is that asking the right ones is equivalent to coming up with a surf board for successfully catching waves in the sea of unknown.

Previous year’s questions are found below:

Questions for Apple in 2020

The topics that serve as source material for Apple questions in 2020 can be grouped into two buckets: growth initiatives and asset base optimization.

Growth Initiatives

  • iPhone Business. The narrative facing the iPhone business has been off the mark for years. Skepticism and cynicism has continued to mask what has been a resilient business. There is now too much talk of 5G kicking off some kind of mega upgrade iPhone cycle. Such a focus ignores what is ultimately taking place with the iPhone: The business is maturing. This presents a set of challenges that will require a fine-tuning of strategy. This involves changes to the device lineup, release schedule, pricing, and feature set.

  • Paid Content Distribution. Following a very busy 2019 for Apple’s content distribution arm, all eyes are on whether or not Apple will bundle its new paid content services. Ultimately, bundling is a tool that Apple has at its disposal to support a weaker service while increasing the stickiness found with its services.

  • Wearables. Apple’s wearables business is a runaway train with the company selling approximately 65M wearable devices in FY2019. Based on my Apple Watch installed base estimate (available here), just 7% of iPhone users own an Apple Watch. Similar ownership percentages are found with AirPods despite the product having been in the market for less time. The question isn’t if Apple wearables momentum will continue but instead how fast will adoption grow.

  • Margins. Apple follows a “revenue and gross margin optimization” pricing strategy. This has led to Apple’s products gross margin percentage declining by 10% over the past two years while products gross margin dollars have declined by only 2%. Apple is willing to let products gross margin percentages decline (via lower product prices and higher cost of goods sold relative to revenue) if it results in stronger customer demand for those products. Attention will be placed at determining the level at which Apple product pricing is too low in order to maximize gross profit dollars.

  • R&D. There have been two general themes found with Project Titan and Apple’s efforts related to developing a pair of AR glasses: 1) Continued progress and 2) Extended timelines.

Asset Base Optimization

  • Leadership. With Jeff Williams officially serving as the link between Apple’s design team and the rest of Tim Cook’s inner circle, it will be interesting to see if Apple makes any refinements to its leadership structure.

  • China. The boogeyman known as U.S. / China trade has been put to bed, for now. With rhetoric having been dialed back in a very big way, attention will shift to the various decisions Apple still has to make regarding its long-term approach to China. The company can continue to rely heavily on China for its supply chain and manufacturing apparatus, accelerate a diversification strategy away from the country, or follow more of a status quo approach that recognizes the benefits (and weaknesses) of being so dependent on one country.

  • Capex. In FY2019, Apple reported just $7.6 billion of capital expenditures (capex). This was a significant drop from the $16.7 billion of capex in 2018. The most likely reason for the decline in capex was a decline in tooling and manufacturing machinery. The company also slowed spending on corporate facilities. By not providing capex guidance for FY2020, the variable is accompanied by a greater level of intrigue as to what it means about Apple’s near-term product pipeline.

The Big Question

Taking a closer look at the preceding list of unknowns facing Apple, the product categories that have served as the primary engines for Apple’s new user growth are quickly maturing while new product categories have been more ARPU (average revenue per user) drivers. There are more than 500 million people who own just one Apple product: an iPhone. This group represents a prime target market for Apple when selling additional tools. Apple is ending one growth phase and is about to enter into a new one.

Exhibit 1 shows the growth trajectory for the number of Apple users, also referred to as Apple’s installed base, over the past 10 years. Based on my estimates, the Apple installed base grew from approximately 90 million people at the end of 2009 to a little more than a billion people at the end of 2019. Apple’s new user growth has slowed dramatically. Thanks primarily to the iPhone, Apple saw spectacular new user growth in the range of 25% to 60% in the early to mid-2010s. More recently, new user growth has been trending in the mid single-digit range.

Exhibit 1: Apple Installed Base (Number of Users)

The methodology and math used to reach my estimate for the number of Apple users is available for Above Avalon members here.

Reaching a billion users is quite the accomplishment for Apple considering how the company doesn’t give away its products for free. It’s one thing to reach a billion users with a “free” service. However, to get a billion people to pay directly for a service or tool is an entirely different thing.

When thinking about Apple’s future, the big question facing the company isn’t about how it will sell additional tools to its existing user base. Instead, the major unknown facing Apple is found with management’s ability to continue expanding its installed base. This raises one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity:

How will Apple find its next billion users?

It may be tempting to classify Apple’s first billion users as the “easy” growth or low-hanging fruit. In reality, those billion users primarily came from the premium segments of the various industries that Apple competes in. This means that to find the next billion users, Apple will inevitably need some strategy adjustments.

The Strategy for the Next Billion

The major building blocks for Apple’s plan to find its next billion users are already in place. Apple will come up with tools capable of making technology more personal. This pursuit will involve new user interfaces and inputs that allow people to get more out of technology without having technology take over people’s lives.

Taking a look at the geographical makeup of Apple’s current installed base, developed markets still contain plenty of new users for Apple to target. However, the potential found with emerging markets is a completely different story. Indonesia, Brazil, the Philippines, and Vietnam have a total population that is twice that of the U.S. Meanwhile, there are more people in China and India (2.6 billion) than the next 20 most populated countries combined.

It may be easy to think that Apple can just cut product pricing in order to grab its next billion users. However, the situation ends up being more complicated. Socio-economic trends will contribute to tens of millions of people moving into Apple’s addressable market each year. In addition, relying on the gray market for allowing gently-used Apple products to flow to lower price segments is a more effective strategy for Apple. Not only does the gray market reduce the need for Apple to come up with low priced products lacking in features, but Apple can also benefit from continued product focus in terms of its supply chain and manufacturing apparatus.

As for some of the granular initiatives that stand to promote continued growth in Apple’s installed base:

  • A truly independent Apple Watch. Advancements such as a truly independent Apple Watch that doesn’t require another Apple device to activate and use will expand the device’s addressable market by nearly four times overnight.

  • Continuing to run forward with wearables. New product categories that allow Apple to break down the barriers between users and technology will allow the company to target a wider audience. New form factors such as glasses will be designed to make technology even more personal than what is possible with Apple Watch and AirPods.

  • Longer device longevity. By giving Apple devices longer lifespans via more durable hardware and additional years of software updates, devices will be able to have more owners over time. This will have a direct benefit on the gray market for Apple devices as more devices are recirculated and eventually able to reach customers in lower price segments.

  • Expanding device repair and support networks. Apple’s current retail store footprint is not capable of handing the additional product servicing and support associated with having another billion users in its ecosystem. This is especially true in developing markets. By building out a device repair and support network to include authorized third-parties, Apple will go a long way in ensuring the next billion users have access to many of the same experiences that are valued by Apple’s current users.

The path to two billion users won’t be easy for Apple. The trajectory may very well end up looking quite different than the path to a billion users. However, there is nothing found with Apple’s long-standing mission to create products that can change people’s lives that limits its reach to a billion people.

Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.

Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.