While surfing the web this morning, I could only laugh at the amount of optimism given to Windows 8. Posts on how Windows 8 will truly revolutionize Microsoft (they said the same thing about Windows 7) were the cherry on top. Commenters rushed in with Microsoft support throwing around such figures as 350 million Windows 7 licenses sold to date or some other funny math that supports their claims. If I wanted to live like it was still 2004, I could go along with these individuals and drink the Microsoft kool-aid, but its time to wake up.
People are making a fundamental error. Rather than looking at tech trends, many are looking at snapshots of the current technology landscape and then extrapolating what they see into the future. Snapshots do nothing but reinforce the dying status quo.
June 2011 technology snapshots would show:
1) Nokia is still selling plenty of phones.
2) Microsoft is crushing it with Windows 7 licenses.
3) Research in Motion is still selling a boatload of blackberries.
All snapshots; singular moments in time that won’t show:
1) Mac sales are gaining market share every quarter and will soon surpass 15% of the consumer computer market.
2) iOS is becoming ever-more vibrant as a growing number of developers are now earning a honest living from iOS app revenue.
3) iPad power.
4) Android is largely becoming the non-Apple destination for anything mobile.
While Windows 8 may have its attractive points, interesting features don’t change consumer technology trends. Instead, years of successful product launches and value-added services help turn a loyal consumer base into an army of brand enthusiasts. The tech industry is still in the early stages of working through the death of a monopoly. Industries take years, if not decades, to work though such an industry-changing event. Certain brands are dying a slow death, while at the same time, being replaced by up and coming brands. Taking snapshots will never give the true picture.