Apple's Ecosystem Growth Is Accelerating

The two most recent Above Avalon articles took a look at how and why Apple’s ecosystem is giving the company a major advantage against the competition.

With Apple reporting 3Q20 earnings two weeks ago, there is value in quantifying how much Apple’s ecosystem is growing. The data should startle the competition. Apple is seeing a clear acceleration in its ecosystem growth as hundreds of millions of iPhone-only users move deeper into the Apple fold by subscribing to various services and buying additional products.

Measuring Ecosystem Growth

There are a number of ways one can attempt to track or measure Apple’s ecosystem growth.

In covering Apple’s business from a financial perspective, my modeling work includes keeping up-to-date estimates for most of the preceding data points. However, there is one metric missing from the list that may come as a surprise: overall revenue. Considering Apple provides this data point every three months, such an exclusion may seem peculiar. Wouldn’t Apple revenue shed light on how the Apple ecosystem is performing?

Relying on overall revenue for analyzing Apple’s ecosystem growth will lead to faulty conclusions. In Exhibit 1, Apple’s revenue is graphed on a trailing twelve months (TTM) basis. This is done to smooth out the seasonality found in Apple’s business (i.e. sales are concentrated around the holidays). The takeaway from the exhibit is that higher revenue demonstrates Apple’s ecosystem continues to grow although the rate of growth has slowed dramatically.

There is one problem with such a takeaway: It’s wrong.

Exhibit 1: Apple Revenue (TTM)

Click / tap exhibit to enlarge.

Overall revenue trends are masking what is actually occurring with Apple’s ecosystem. In FY2019, the iPhone was responsible for 55% of Apple’s overall revenue. On its own, that’s not an issue for Apple. The iPhone is part of Apple’s ecosystem after all. However, Apple has become increasingly dependent on existing users upgrading their devices to generate iPhone revenue. This has resulted in Apple’s overall revenue being heavily influenced by iPhone upgrading trends.

During periods of robust iPhone upgrading, Apple’s overall revenue shows stronger growth. When iPhone upgrading slows, overall revenue growth also slows to the point that Apple’s ecosystem may appear to be plateauing or even contracting (as seen in Exhibit 1). This was a major issue at the end of 2018 and early 2019 as slowing iPhone upgrades led many to conclude that Apple was in big trouble in China and other geographies.

Since iPhone upgrading trends have little to no direct impact on Apple ecosystem viability or strength, a better approach to get insights on Apple’s ecosystem growth is to divide Apple’s revenue into two categories:

  • iPhone

  • non-iPhone (Services, Mac, iPad, Wearables, Home, and Accessories)

As seen in Exhibit 2, breaking Apple’s overall revenue into iPhone and non-iPhone revenue leads to a completely different view of Apple’s growth trajectory. Non-iPhone revenue (the red line) continues to demonstrate very strong momentum while iPhone revenue (the blue line) is trending at the same level that it was in 2015.

Exhibit 2: Revenue (iPhone vs. Non-iPhone) - TTM

Click / tap exhibit to enlarge.

A different way of looking at this data is to consider revenue growth rates. Using the revenue figures from Exhibit 2, we are able to create Exhibit 3, which displays year-over-year change in revenue for both iPhone and non-iPhone.

Non-iPhone revenue growth (the red line) has outpaced iPhone revenue growth (the blue line) for the past seven quarters. The higher growth rates for iPhone revenue in 2018 were due to higher iPhone ASPs caused by Apple unveiling the iPhone X. Excluding those quarters, non-iPhone revenue growth has been trending stronger than iPhone growth since 2016. This is a sign that Apple’s underlying ecosystem strength has been gaining momentum for years - it’s just been masked by people holding on to their iPhones for longer before upgrading.

Exhibit 3: Revenue Growth YOY (iPhone vs. Non-iPhone) - TTM

Click / tap exhibit to enlarge.

What is driving the non-iPhone revenue strength shown in Exhibits 2 and 3? The answer is found in the strong iPhone revenue trends from a few years ago. Years of strong new user growth driven by the iPhone is now contributing to hundreds of millions of iPhone-only users moving deeper into the Apple ecosystem. This trend began in earnest around the beginning of 2017.

The Services Myth

Some may look at the preceding exhibits and say that the data is still incomplete. Apple Services include a number of recurring revenue streams such as iCloud, Apple Music, and various paid subscriptions. Given the recurring nature of something like paid iCloud storage, it ends up being easier for Apple to report year-over-year Services growth. Apple’s Services business accounts for 40% of non-iPhone revenue. There is a different dynamic found with hardware revenue. Since hardware isn’t a recurring revenue stream, year-over-year growth ends up being that much harder to achieve as Apple is in effect needing to replace every dollar of revenue with new sales.

(One can argue something like the iPhone Upgrade Program is a recurring revenue stream for hardware. However, that ends up being a stretch. The Upgrade Program is a loan with a built-in upgrade optionality after the 12th payment. That is very different than something like an iCloud or Apple Music subscription.)

To address this issue, non-iPhone revenue can be broken out into Services and Products (excluding iPhone). In what will come as a shock to many people, Exhibits 4 and 5 show how Products revenue excluding iPhone (i.e. iPad, Mac, Wearables, Home, and Accessories) is now growing at nearly the same pace as Services. This represents a major narrative violation as consensus spent years positioning Services as Apple’s growth engine.

Exhibit 4: Revenue (Apple Services vs. Apple Products Excluding iPhone) - TTM

Click / tap exhibit to enlarge.

Exhibit 5: Revenue Growth YOY (Apple Services vs. Apple Products Excluding iPhone) - TTM

Click / tap exhibit to enlarge.

Based on Apple management commentary, we know that upgrading is not impacting the iPad, Mac, and wearables as much as the iPhone. Approximately half of people buying iPads and Macs are new to the product categories. For Apple Watch, the percentage is more than 75%. The new user percentage for iPhone sales is a fraction of those percentages. This tells us that iPad, Mac, and wearables sales are a very good indicator of Apple ecosystem strength.

Tying It All Together

One way of thinking about the Apple ecosystem is to view it as a pie. There are two ways for Apple to expand the pie: Bring in more customers and have existing customers spend more on services and products in the ecosystem (higher ARPU).

  • New users entering the ecosystem - The iPhone SE should not be underestimated as a successful tool for bringing Android users into the Apple fold.

  • Existing users moving deeper into the ecosystem - iPhone users are buying iPads, Macs, and wearables as well as subscribing to various Apple services.

Apple currently finds itself in an ecosystem expansion phase. Hundreds of millions of people with only one Apple device - an iPhone - are embarking on a search for more Apple experiences. We see this with non-iPhone revenue growing by 14% in 3Q20 on a TTM basis, which is higher than growth rates seen in the mid-2010s, as seen in Exhibit 6.

Exhibit 6: Apple Non-iPhone Revenue Growth Projection

Click / tap exhibit to enlarge.

Looking ahead, my estimates have non-iPhone revenue accelerating from 14% growth to 20% growth in the coming quarters. iPad, Mac, and wearables are a major source of that growth acceleration. Considering how Apple is working off of a much larger revenue base, for revenue growth percentages to actually increase this far along in the process is intriguing. The takeaway is that Apple’s ecosystem is gaining momentum at a pace that should frighten the competition.

Hundreds of millions of people will be buying their first Apple wearable device in the coming years. Given the inherent nature of wearable devices - new form factors designed to make technology more personal - it is very likely that one Apple wearable purchase will eventually lead to additional Apple wearable purchases. Apple can then leverage high-margin Services to run with more aggressive pricing on wearables (and other Apple devices) which only ends up boosting demand.

Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.

Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.

For additional discussion on this topic, check out the Above Avalon daily update from August 13th.

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 162: The Apple Question

At the start of a new year, there is less value found in coming up with predictions than there is in looking at questions facing the company. In episode 162, Neil goes over his list of questions for Apple in 2020, and the discussion culminates with one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity. Additional topics include why predictions contain so little value, the number of Apple users, and Apple in emerging markets.

To listen to episode 162, go here. 

The complete Above Avalon podcast episode archive is available here. 

The Big Question Now Facing Apple

Predictions are nothing more than attempts at manufacturing clarity for what is inherently a sea of unknown. With New Year predictions, two things need to happen. The person issuing the prediction needs to come up with what may happen, and the predicted event has to occur within an arbitrary time period. The probability of finding value in such an exercise is low.

Instead of coming up with predictions for Apple at the start of a new year, there is value found in embracing the unknown and looking at questions facing the company. This has led to my annual tradition of coming up with a set of questions facing Apple at the start of a new year. The irony found with questions is that asking the right ones is equivalent to coming up with a surf board for successfully catching waves in the sea of unknown.

Previous year’s questions are found below:

Questions for Apple in 2020

The topics that serve as source material for Apple questions in 2020 can be grouped into two buckets: growth initiatives and asset base optimization.

Growth Initiatives

  • iPhone Business. The narrative facing the iPhone business has been off the mark for years. Skepticism and cynicism has continued to mask what has been a resilient business. There is now too much talk of 5G kicking off some kind of mega upgrade iPhone cycle. Such a focus ignores what is ultimately taking place with the iPhone: The business is maturing. This presents a set of challenges that will require a fine-tuning of strategy. This involves changes to the device lineup, release schedule, pricing, and feature set.

  • Paid Content Distribution. Following a very busy 2019 for Apple’s content distribution arm, all eyes are on whether or not Apple will bundle its new paid content services. Ultimately, bundling is a tool that Apple has at its disposal to support a weaker service while increasing the stickiness found with its services.

  • Wearables. Apple’s wearables business is a runaway train with the company selling approximately 65M wearable devices in FY2019. Based on my Apple Watch installed base estimate (available here), just 7% of iPhone users own an Apple Watch. Similar ownership percentages are found with AirPods despite the product having been in the market for less time. The question isn’t if Apple wearables momentum will continue but instead how fast will adoption grow.

  • Margins. Apple follows a “revenue and gross margin optimization” pricing strategy. This has led to Apple’s products gross margin percentage declining by 10% over the past two years while products gross margin dollars have declined by only 2%. Apple is willing to let products gross margin percentages decline (via lower product prices and higher cost of goods sold relative to revenue) if it results in stronger customer demand for those products. Attention will be placed at determining the level at which Apple product pricing is too low in order to maximize gross profit dollars.

  • R&D. There have been two general themes found with Project Titan and Apple’s efforts related to developing a pair of AR glasses: 1) Continued progress and 2) Extended timelines.

Asset Base Optimization

  • Leadership. With Jeff Williams officially serving as the link between Apple’s design team and the rest of Tim Cook’s inner circle, it will be interesting to see if Apple makes any refinements to its leadership structure.

  • China. The boogeyman known as U.S. / China trade has been put to bed, for now. With rhetoric having been dialed back in a very big way, attention will shift to the various decisions Apple still has to make regarding its long-term approach to China. The company can continue to rely heavily on China for its supply chain and manufacturing apparatus, accelerate a diversification strategy away from the country, or follow more of a status quo approach that recognizes the benefits (and weaknesses) of being so dependent on one country.

  • Capex. In FY2019, Apple reported just $7.6 billion of capital expenditures (capex). This was a significant drop from the $16.7 billion of capex in 2018. The most likely reason for the decline in capex was a decline in tooling and manufacturing machinery. The company also slowed spending on corporate facilities. By not providing capex guidance for FY2020, the variable is accompanied by a greater level of intrigue as to what it means about Apple’s near-term product pipeline.

The Big Question

Taking a closer look at the preceding list of unknowns facing Apple, the product categories that have served as the primary engines for Apple’s new user growth are quickly maturing while new product categories have been more ARPU (average revenue per user) drivers. There are more than 500 million people who own just one Apple product: an iPhone. This group represents a prime target market for Apple when selling additional tools. Apple is ending one growth phase and is about to enter into a new one.

Exhibit 1 shows the growth trajectory for the number of Apple users, also referred to as Apple’s installed base, over the past 10 years. Based on my estimates, the Apple installed base grew from approximately 90 million people at the end of 2009 to a little more than a billion people at the end of 2019. Apple’s new user growth has slowed dramatically. Thanks primarily to the iPhone, Apple saw spectacular new user growth in the range of 25% to 60% in the early to mid-2010s. More recently, new user growth has been trending in the mid single-digit range.

Exhibit 1: Apple Installed Base (Number of Users)

The methodology and math used to reach my estimate for the number of Apple users is available for Above Avalon members here.

Reaching a billion users is quite the accomplishment for Apple considering how the company doesn’t give away its products for free. It’s one thing to reach a billion users with a “free” service. However, to get a billion people to pay directly for a service or tool is an entirely different thing.

When thinking about Apple’s future, the big question facing the company isn’t about how it will sell additional tools to its existing user base. Instead, the major unknown facing Apple is found with management’s ability to continue expanding its installed base. This raises one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity:

How will Apple find its next billion users?

It may be tempting to classify Apple’s first billion users as the “easy” growth or low-hanging fruit. In reality, those billion users primarily came from the premium segments of the various industries that Apple competes in. This means that to find the next billion users, Apple will inevitably need some strategy adjustments.

The Strategy for the Next Billion

The major building blocks for Apple’s plan to find its next billion users are already in place. Apple will come up with tools capable of making technology more personal. This pursuit will involve new user interfaces and inputs that allow people to get more out of technology without having technology take over people’s lives.

Taking a look at the geographical makeup of Apple’s current installed base, developed markets still contain plenty of new users for Apple to target. However, the potential found with emerging markets is a completely different story. Indonesia, Brazil, the Philippines, and Vietnam have a total population that is twice that of the U.S. Meanwhile, there are more people in China and India (2.6 billion) than the next 20 most populated countries combined.

It may be easy to think that Apple can just cut product pricing in order to grab its next billion users. However, the situation ends up being more complicated. Socio-economic trends will contribute to tens of millions of people moving into Apple’s addressable market each year. In addition, relying on the gray market for allowing gently-used Apple products to flow to lower price segments is a more effective strategy for Apple. Not only does the gray market reduce the need for Apple to come up with low priced products lacking in features, but Apple can also benefit from continued product focus in terms of its supply chain and manufacturing apparatus.

As for some of the granular initiatives that stand to promote continued growth in Apple’s installed base:

  • A truly independent Apple Watch. Advancements such as a truly independent Apple Watch that doesn’t require another Apple device to activate and use will expand the device’s addressable market by nearly four times overnight.

  • Continuing to run forward with wearables. New product categories that allow Apple to break down the barriers between users and technology will allow the company to target a wider audience. New form factors such as glasses will be designed to make technology even more personal than what is possible with Apple Watch and AirPods.

  • Longer device longevity. By giving Apple devices longer lifespans via more durable hardware and additional years of software updates, devices will be able to have more owners over time. This will have a direct benefit on the gray market for Apple devices as more devices are recirculated and eventually able to reach customers in lower price segments.

  • Expanding device repair and support networks. Apple’s current retail store footprint is not capable of handing the additional product servicing and support associated with having another billion users in its ecosystem. This is especially true in developing markets. By building out a device repair and support network to include authorized third-parties, Apple will go a long way in ensuring the next billion users have access to many of the same experiences that are valued by Apple’s current users.

The path to two billion users won’t be easy for Apple. The trajectory may very well end up looking quite different than the path to a billion users. However, there is nothing found with Apple’s long-standing mission to create products that can change people’s lives that limits its reach to a billion people.

Listen to the corresponding Above Avalon podcast episode for this article here.

Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.