Apple’s Installed Base Growth, Apple's Paid Subscriptions Growth, A More Effective Apple Growth Narrative for Wall Street

Last Friday’s update kicked off our Apple 1Q24 earnings review. When it comes to Apple’s financial story, trends are tracking close to Neil’s expectations. For today, we will take a closer look at one takeaway from earnings: Apple’s ecosystem growth.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.

4Q22 iPhone Installed Base, iPhone Installed Base Growth Trajectory (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. Let's jump right in.

4Q22 iPhone Installed Base

Last week, we went over my estimates for the Apple Watch installed base as of the end of September. Today, we will discuss the iPhone installed base. It’s been a year since we examined the issue.

Before we go any further, it is important to go over definitions. Unlike the Apple Watch installed base, Apple has provided an iPhone installed base figure from time to time. Apple defines the iPhone installed base as the number of iPhones in the wild. My definition is slightly different - the number of people using an iPhone. This includes both consumers who bought a new iPhone from Apple or a third-party retailer as well people using pre-owned or hand-me-down iPhones. If you use an iPhone, regardless of where it came from, you are part of the iPhone installed base.

Apple’s installed base definition will lead to a slightly higher iPhone total versus my definition. For today’s discussion, the difference won't change any observations or outcomes. There aren't many people using more than one iPhone.

The methodology used to derive my iPhone installed base estimate is similar to the one used for the Apple Watch installed base. Accordingly, we won’t spend time going over the steps. The iPhone business is broken into user cohorts/buckets distinguished by the year (2007 to 2022) they purchased their first new iPhone from Apple or a third-party retailer.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.