Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Rivian Shifts to Google Maps, Uber Partnering With Lucid and Nuro on Autonomous Fleet, Tesla’s Awful 2Q25 Delivery Figures

Hello everyone.

We will wrap up the week in the automobile space.

Before we jump into today's update, a quick Above Avalon Weekly Recap - new analysis published this week elsewhere in the Above Avalon ecosystem.

The AVALON Podcast. Episode 7  – “Tim Cook’s Tim Cook Is Retiring” included approximately an hour-long discussion regarding Jeff Williams, the Apple COO transition, Apple CEO succession, and how all of these moving parts impact Apple product development. Additional podcast discussion topics included Robinhood and Apple’s Journal app. AVALON, my new weekly podcast loosely modeled after Apple's Monday morning meetings, is available via a standalone subscription. Bundle the podcast with this daily newsletter and receive 40% off AVALON pricing (just +$6/month or +$60/year). More information is available here.



Rivian Shifts to Google Maps

Here’s TechCrunch:

“For 18 months, Rivian and Google engineers worked together. Today, they’re showing off their work.

Rivian is pushing out a software update that will bring a unique version of Google Maps into its EVs. It’s the latest step in Rivian’s continued effort to distinguish its vehicles with software — an effort that has helped it strike up a joint venture with one of the world’s biggest automakers, Volkswagen.

This isn’t a typical Google Maps integration and it’s unlike the tech company’s other collaborations in the automotive sector. For years, Google has pushed into automotive through its smartphone projection app called Android Auto, as well as Google Built-In, an Android Automotive operating system that integrates Google services directly into the vehicle and is used by automakers like Volvo.

The collaboration with Rivian is neither. Instead, Rivian customers who use the in-car navigation will no longer see the Mapbox-based maps. Now, they’ll see Google Maps, but with a lot of Rivian DNA sprinkled on top, including its trip planner, user interface, and design, and EV charger locations, according to Rivian’s chief of software, Wassym Bensaid.”

This news didn’t receive too much attention as Rivian is a niche EV manufacturer (~130,000 vehicle sales to date). In addition, Rivian isn’t shifting from Apple to Google which would have led to a wave of sensational headlines. Instead, Rivian is moving from its own in-house mapping solution to a highly customizable Google Maps solution.

On some levels, this shift looks like Rivian coming up

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Tesla 1Q24 Deliveries, What’s up With Tesla?, Ford Increases Bet on Hybrids, GM Shakes up Software Team

One member in the forum raised a good point regarding livestreaming Apple Immersive Video. Last year, Apple acquired WaveOne. We talked about the acquisition in the March 28th, 2023 update (available here). The company was in the business of AI algorithms for video compression. The takeaway from that acquisition wasn’t specific to livestreaming sports but rather the broader trend of consuming video and your surroundings on spatial computers.

Today’s update will be dedicated to the auto space.

A few quick notes regarding how we will approach the auto industry following Apple halting Project Titan. In summary, there won’t be any major issues to coverage.

  1. It is good to keep abreast of what’s unfolding in the car industry as the market is too large for Apple to ignore. While the ingredients may not be in ripe for Apple’s entry over the next few years, we can’t rule out the company having renewed interest down the road.

  2. Apple’s CarPlay initiative is one of the more promising integrations between first-party hardware and non-Apple hardware. There are plenty of related implications worth monitoring including Apple Services’ role on the road (maps, music, etc.). It is good to stay up to date as to how CarPlay is being embraced via vehicles sales trends etc.

Let’s jump into today’s update.

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

More on Apple Watch Ultra, Tesla 4Q23 Deliveries, EV Market Slowing in U.S.


We begin with additional comments related to the latest Above Avalon Report focused on Apple Watch Ultra. The update then turns to the auto space as we look at Tesla’s 4Q23 deliveries and signs of slowing EV growth in the U.S.

An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)


Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Tesla Earnings, Tesla's Cost Reductions, Apple’s Project Titan Implications

We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on Tesla earnings. The discussion covers two themes that are beginning to appear in both Tesla’s results and the broader EV space. We conclude with how these trends stand to impact Apple’s transportation goals.


Happy Tuesday.

Before we get to today’s stories, a little follow-up to yesterday’s "Barbie" discussion. The $150M marketing budget for the film was an estimated figure. There is little to no disclosure regarding how much is spent marketing films.

While it would not be unprecedented for a film’s marketing budget to exceed its production costs, the thing that truly stands out about "Barbie’s" marketing budget is how unique the dollars were used. Warner Bros. was able to leverage its marketing budget. On Twitter, Aakash Gupta shared 50 Barbie marketing examples including building a Barbie house in Malibu, a Barbie-themed hotel, catchy billboards, and plenty of other websites, interviews, and licensing deals. The marketing wasn’t really about a movie, but rather about the Barbie brand.

 
 

As we see with other shows like "Ted Lasso," it is possible for other films and shows to play in the zeitgeist. In some ways, that is the goal every streamer is going for: to have some shows become part of culture. Warner Bros. succeeded in that goal with "Barbie." However, the question still remains, what would alternative methods have looked like for "Barbie" distribution? What if David Zaslav had introduced an ultra-premium tier to Max that allowed fans to watch "Barbie" at home, at the same time as the theatrical release?


Tesla Earnings

In a sea of change and evolution, we are starting to get glimmers of a trend materializing in the auto sector. This trend was seen with Tesla’s latest earnings release that came out last week.

A few weeks ago, Tesla reported 2Q23 delivery and production volume. The numbers were good. However, we needed to wait for earnings to see how profitable those vehicle sales were.

Not surprisingly, Tesla’s auto margins are falling. Higher sales volume has not offset the negative impact on margin from substantial price cuts.

The following comment from Elon Musk on Tesla’s earnings Q&A jumped out at me:

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Humane’s Worrying Reveal, Humane’s Miscalculation, Tesla Follow Up (Daily Update)

We kick things off with Humane’s co-CEO Imran Chaudhri unveiling what the company has been working on in a series of demos during a TED Talk. It’s the first time the buzzy HW startup with dozens of former Apple employees has shown off anything publicly. The discussion then turns to a misclaucation Humane has made. We conclude with some follow-up to our discussion regarding Tesla earnings.


Happy Monday. Welcome to a new week.

Earlier today, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the district court’s decision in Epic Games vs. Apple. It’s (another) major legal win for Apple and the company’s App Store practices in the U.S., although the legal back-and-forth could continue. We will talk about the ruling this week.

Let’s jump into today’s update.


Humane’s Worrying Reveal

Last month, we talked about Humane, the buzzy hardware startup comprised of dozens of former Apple employees. Based on patents, hiring activity, and marketing materials, the company has been working on a wearable camera and accompanying projection system technology. More recently, the company has been talking up AI.

Last week, Humane’s co-CEO Imran Chaudhri unveiled what the company has been working on in a series of demos during a TED Talk. It’s the first time the company has shown off anything publicly. You can check out the demo clips below (the blue links).

Based on what was shown off, major questions need to be asked about Humane’s strategy and path forward.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)


Above Avalon Membership

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

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