U.S. Supreme Court Declines to Hear Epic/Apple Appeals, The New App Store Battle, Consumers Should Be More Vocal
As expected, the Vision Pro news cycle remains in overdrive ahead of pre-orders going live in a few days. We will get to the latest developments shortly. For today’s discussion, we will travel to App Store land and news from the U.S. Supreme Court. The update also goes over Neil’s thoughts on where the new App Store battle in the U.S. will be fought.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Apple Watch Ban Update, YouTube’s Strengthening Grip on Kids, NFL / Peacock Controversy
We kick things off with the latest developments involving the U.S. sales / import ban on Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2. The update then turns to media land. We go over YouTube’s strengthening grip on children’s viewing habits. Our attention then turns to takeaways from the NFL / NBC / Peacock controversy this past weekend involving the Saturday Wild Card playoff game.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Google Reorganizes Devices Group, Humane Announces Reorganization
We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on Google reorganizing its devices group. The update then turns to Humane announcing a reorganization ahead of its upcoming Ai pin launch.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Analyzing Historical Apple HW Launches (Unit Sales), Vision Pro Launch Sales Estimate
Given Vision Pro's upcoming launch, the next few weeks of updates will inevitably contain a fair amount of Vision Pro discussion. For today, we take a closer look at Apple HW launches. We will also go over my initial launch sales estimates for Vision Pro.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Apple Releases First Vision Pro Ad, Revisiting the First iPhone Ad, iPhone vs. Vision Pro
We will continue our Vision Pro discussion as a few interesting developments came to light at the end of yesterday. Neil goes over his thoughts on Apple’s first Vision Pro ad. The discussion then turns to comparing the ad to Apple’s first iPhone ad in 2007. This leads to a broader look at iPhone vs. Vision Pro comparisons.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Apple Vision Pro Launch Date Announced, New Vision Pro Details, What About Vision Pro Demos?
There is Vision Pro news to go over. We begin with Neil’s thoughts on Apple’s Vision Pro launch date. The discussion then goes over several new details disclosed about the device. We conclude with a look at Vision Pro demos at Apple Stores.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
New Churn Estimates for Paid Video Streaming, Apple Announces Fitness+ Updates, ASML Cancels DUV Shipments Into China
We kick things off with a closer look at new churn estimates for the major video streamers in the U.S. The paid video industry is getting more complicated. The discussion then turns to Neil’s thoughts on new features and content announced for Fitness+. We conclude with ASML needing to cancel advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines shipments into China.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
More on Apple Watch Ultra, Tesla 4Q23 Deliveries, EV Market Slowing in U.S.
We begin with additional comments related to the latest Above Avalon Report focused on Apple Watch Ultra. The update then turns to the auto space as we look at Tesla’s 4Q23 deliveries and signs of slowing EV growth in the U.S.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
U.S. Court Pauses Apple Watch Ban, Apple’s Response, Why I’m Not Concerned About Apple Watch
The most recent Above Avalon Report, which went out to everyone via email on December 22nd and via podcast to members with the podcast add-on, was about Apple Watch Ultra / Ultra 2. In tomorrow's update, we will talk about a few things that didn't make it into the report. For today, we will look at the latest regarding the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 U.S. ban. The discussion includes a closer look at Apple’s response and why Neil isn’t concerned about Apple Watch.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
The Ultra Strategy: An Examination of Apple’s Adventurous Watch (Above Avalon Report)
An examination of the Apple Watch Ultra.
Written by Neil Cybart - December 21st, 2023
In 2022, Apple unveiled an all-new Apple Watch model designed for the adventurous. While previous Apple Watches were able to be used in extreme conditions, this model would be marketed as taking things to another level. A year after its unveiling, Apple Watch Ultra remains the most intriguing Apple Watch model as momentum flows to more capable devices worn on the wrist.
Table of Contents
Apple Watch History
Watch Line Expansion
The Ultra Unveiling
Bad (Initial) Reviews
The Strategy
Differentiation Details
Sales Implications
Future
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this report. Members can read the full report here. (Members: Reports are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this report is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Apple Year in Review 2023 (Financial Strategy)
As we close out 2023, there is value in taking time to recap the past 12 months. For Apple, one way of recapping the past 12 months is to look at the company from two perspectives: products and financials. In yesterday’s update, we recapped Apple's product strategy. Today, we will analyze Apple’s financial trends in FY2023.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Apple Facing Apple Watch Ban in U.S., Apple Year in Review 2023 (Product Strategy)
We kick off the update with Neil’s thoughts on Apple facing an Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 import and sales ban in the U.S. The discussion then turns to reviewing Apple’s 2023. As we close out the year, there is value in taking time to recap the past 12 months. For Apple, one way of accomplishing this is to look at the company from two perspectives: products and financials. We will begin with Apple's product strategy as the financials follow product successes and failures.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Netflix Releases Engagement Report, Takeaways From Netflix’s Data Dump, EU Close to Ruling Against Apple in Spotify Probe
We kick off the update with Netflix’s new report on engagement. After examining 18,000+ lines of data, Neil goes over his observations and takeaways regarding Netflix’s report. The discussion then turns to the EU getting close to ruling against Apple’s anti-steering provision.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Google Losses Antitrust Case to Epic Games, GM Digging Deeper CarPlay Hole, Anti-Apple Brigade Forms in EU
We begin today’s update with Google losing the antitrust case brought by Epic Games. There were significant differences between Epic Games v. Google and Epic Games v. Apple. The update then turns to more craziness from GM regarding its decision to ditch CarPlay. We conclude with a look at Apple competitors wanting to team up to “push for open digital ecosystems” in the EU. Neil discusses why the group should rename themselves the Anti-Apple Brigade - EU Edition.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Google Faked Its Gemini AI Demo, CNBC Pumped Alphabet Stock Due to Gemini Demo, Generative AI Demos Are Lacking
We kick off the update with Neil’s thoughts on Google’s Gemini demo and the discovery of the demo being faked. The discussion then looks at how the Gemini demo led to craziness, including CNBC pumping Alphabet shares solely because of a six-minute video. We conclude with why Neil thinks generative AI demos have been lacking to date.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Apple to Support RCS, The Real “Why” Behind iMessage’s U.S. Superiority, EU Leaning Against Regulating iMessage
We kick off the update with Neil’s thoughts on Apple announcing it will support RCS (rich communication services). The discussion then turns to why iMessage is so strong in the U.S. The narrative involving blue and green messages is incomplete. The update concludes with the latest developments involving the EU and iMessage regulation.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
More on Apple Share Buyback vs. Market Cap, Thoughts on Apple and a $4 Trillion Market Cap, Thursday Q&A
There is one question that was carried over from last week’s Thursday Q&A that we will address today. What does the current Mac upgrade cycle look like? In addition, there were a few incoming questions regarding Apple’s market cap and buyback. We will tackle those questions first.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
AAPL Closes Above $3 Trillion for Second Time, Apple’s Recent Stock Price Strength, Apple Valuation Update
Today's update begins with Neil’s thoughts on Apple closing above a $3 trillion market capitalization for the second time. We then look at Apple’s recent stock price strength and what may be behind the move higher. The update concludes with an examination of AAPL valuation metrics (forward P/E, EV/FCF, and free cash flow yield).
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Introducing the Financial Models Add-on for Above Avalon Membership
For the past few years, Above Avalon members have been customizing their memberships with optional add-ons. In 2020, the Podcast add-on was launched with the option to listen to the updates in podcast form. The add-on was later enhanced to include reports in audio form. To date, nearly 600 episodes have been recorded. In early 2021, Inside Orchard, which compliments my Apple-focused analysis with broader thoughts on the technology industry, was positioned as the second add-on for members. To date, 125 Inside Orchard essays and podcast episodes have been published.
One of the most requested features from Above Avalon members has been access to more of the financial models that I (Neil Cybart) use to analyze Apple and derive my financial estimates.
I am excited to announce a new membership add-on dedicated to Apple financial modeling.
Details
Designed for anyone with an interest in Apple’s financials and product strategy, the Financial Models add-on provides access to three of my Apple installed base models (iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch). This is the first time that my installed base models have been made available to others.
The models are built in Excel but also usable in Numbers. While the models include my estimates and assumptions, all inputs can be adjusted to reflect your own assumptions. The add-on also includes the ability to reach out to me with questions about the models.
A general rule with financial models is that the best ones are constantly being improved. As new information becomes available, the installed base models will be updated.
The models, which have been built over the course of years, make it possible to estimate:
Device unit sales.
The number of devices in the wild over time.
Percent of device sales going to new users vs. existing users by year.
Product upgrade cycle length.
The upgrade path that users take.
And more…
The preceding metrics will be of interest to everyone from AAPL investors modeling Apple’s financials to Apple competitors and suppliers needing to better understand the marketplace.
Pricing
The Financial Models add-on can be attached to an Above Avalon membership for $850 per year. Instead of needing to spend thousands of dollars on a financial data subscription or send trading volume to a broker in return for research access, you will find ease and value with the Financial Models add-on. I am confident the value found with just one installed base model will far exceed the add-on’s price. Subscribers will receive seamless online access to my installed base models at any time.
Group Pricing. If you have a friend or co-workers interested in utilizing the Financial Models add-on, take advantage of special group rates. Fill out this online form and indicate you are interested in subscribing to the Financial Models add-on at the group rate.
Signing Up
The Financial Models add-on can be attached to an Above Avalon membership for $850/year. If you need to become a member, fill out the following payment form which includes the Financial Models add-on:
Already an Above Avalon member? Attach the Financial Models add-on to your membership for $850/year by filling out this payment form.
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay is accepted. Paid invoice receipts are available upon request. The full charge associated with purchasing the Financial Models add-on will go through at signup. At your next membership renewal, your charge will include a pro-rated amount for the add-on. For members who have specific payment/invoice requirements dictated by their employer, please reach out to me with that information.
Already an Above Avalon member subscribed to “The Works”?, Fill out this online form to get the Financial Models add-on at the special $700 bundle price. Once your request has been processed, a customized coupon will be emailed to you to use with the online payment form.
If you aren’t an Above Avalon member, take advantage of special bundle pricing found with the Financial Models by signing up for an Ultra membership. Receive all three add-ons at a $150 discount. This amounts to getting the Podcast and Inside Orchard add-ons for free.
Above Avalon membership ($200 per year)
+ Podcast add-on ($100 per year)
+ Inside Orchard add-on ($50 per year)
+ Financial Models add-on ($700 per year - $150 off)
Total: $1,050 per year
Accessing the Models
Once payment has gone through, you will receive an email containing a personalized link to the installed base models. This personalized link tied to your membership will remain active as long as the add-on is attached to your membership.
You will also be able to access the models via the Above Avalon payer portal (accessed via "Member Login" over at AboveAvalon.com). A new “Digital Package” tab will appear that will bring you to your personalized download page. There are no new logins or passwords required.
Questions about the Financial Models add-on can be addressed to me using this contact form.
Apple Opens Chip Lab to Press for First Time, Why Now?, Apple Announces Amkor Partnership in U.S.
Today's update will take us into Apple Silicon territory. Apple opened its chip lab to the press for the first time. We discuss why Apple decided now is the time for such exposure. We will then go over some Apple news on the U.S. manufacturing front with the company announcing an expanded partnership with Amkor.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.