Deriving 1Q17 Apple Watch Sales, Jimmy Iovine Talks Apple Content Strategy, Apple Poaches Amazon Fire TV Head

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Deriving 1Q17 Apple Watch Sales
  • Jimmy Iovine Talks Apple Content Strategy
  • Apple Poaches Amazon Fire TV Head

We begin today's email by taking a deep dive into how I derive Apple Watch revenue and unit sales from Apple's 1Q17 financial results. We go over my complete methodology, including all of the various assumptions and estimates that go into the exercise. The discussion turns to a few stress case scenarios in order to reach the floor/ceiling for 1Q17 Apple Watch unit sales. The email then turns to Jimmy Iovine discussing Apple's broader content strategy. This is no longer just about music. We conclude with a closer look at news of Apple poaching the former head of Amazon Fire TV. We go over three key observations that I had regarding the news. 

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Apple 1Q17 10-Q Takeaways, GoPro 4Q16 Earnings, Keep an Eye on GoPro

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple 1Q17 10-Q Takeaways
  • GoPro 4Q16 Earnings
  • Keep an Eye on GoPro

We begin today's email by going through Apple's 1Q17 10-Q. We go over nine takeaways from the filing. The discussion then turns to GoPro's 4Q16 earnings report. While results were weak, as expected, the company appears to be up to something. There is a growing number of reasons to keep an eye on GoPro as it goes through a turnaround strategy with a former Apple Industrial Designer potentially playing a key role.

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Deep Dive into Snap's IPO Filing, Snap's Key Advantage, Snap's Major Problem

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Deep Dive into Snap's IPO Filing
  • Snap's Key Advantage
  • Snap's Major Problem

Today's email is focused on Snap. The company released its IPO paperwork last week. Snap is a company worth monitoring from Apple's perspective. The two are playing in similar fields. We begin the email by taking a deep dive into Snap's S-1 filing and going over the major takeaways. The discussion then turns to Snap's key advantage in its quest to be a camera company. This leads us to the major problem found with Snap's narrative and how this issue is manifesting itself into Snap's IPO. 

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Apple 1Q17 Earnings Review: Details

Today's daily update is the second half of my Apple 1Q17 earnings review. Yesterday's update was focused on the major themes (available here). The email covers my perspective on the details from Apple's earnings release and conference call. Twenty-six topics are covered, including iPhone 7 Plus trends, iPhone upgrading, Apple's Services goal, and margins. 

The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple 1Q17 Earnings Review: Major Themes

Today's daily update is focused on reviewing Apple's 1Q17 earnings. Along with a big picture overall of the quarter, the email covers five major themes from the report and conference call: 

  • Apple 1Q17: A Good Quarter
  • The Stable iPhone
  • Apple Watch Was a Big Winner
  • An iPad Asterisk
  • Apple Turns up Services Narrative
  • Management Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow

Tomorrow's daily update will include additional thoughts and observations on Apple's quarter.

The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Fitbit Is in Trouble, Apple Watch Momentum Is Building, Deep Dive into Microsoft Surface Sales

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Fitbit Is in Trouble
  • Apple Watch Momentum Is Building
  • Deep Dive into Microsoft Surface Sales

We begin today's email with a closer look at Fitbit's holiday results. The company preannounced very bad numbers. We discuss the report and all of the various financial actions the company is taking to shore up its business. The email then turns to why I think Fitbit's results demonstrate that Apple Watch momentum is building in the wearables space. The discussion concludes with a deep dive into Microsoft Surface sales. We take a look at quarterly revenue trends, including 4Q16 holiday sales, and assess the validity of the Surface vs. Mac narrative being pushed by Microsoft.

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Apple vs. Qualcomm Primer

Today's email is focused on Apple's new war with Qualcomm. The email is broken into four parts with the beginning dedicated to the primary takeaways from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission's lawsuit against Qualcomm. We then turn to Apple's $1B lawsuit against Qualcomm. After going over Qualcomm's response to the allegations, we break apart Apple's motivation in its new battle against Qualcomm. What does Apple want to achieve by going after Qualcomm? What does Apple's war against Qualcomm imply about Apple's future product strategy? We answer these questions and more in this Apple vs. Qualcomm primer. 

The four "chapters":

  1. U.S. Government Sues Qualcomm
  2. Apple Sues Qualcomm
  3. Qualcomm's Response 
  4. Apple's Motivation to Sue Qualcomm 

The Apple vs. Qualcomm primer is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple and Wall Street Expectations, Apple to Join Partnership on AI, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple and Wall Street Expectations
  • Apple to Join Partnership on AI
  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email with my thoughts and observations on the Wall Street expectations game heading into Apple's 1Q17 earnings. We discuss how much of an impact Apple earnings releases actually have on Wall Street expectations these days. The discussion also includes what I think is gaining an increasing amount of influence when it comes to Apple expectations on Wall Street. The email then turns to news of Apple nearing an announcement that it will join Partnership on AI, a consortium focused on creating best practices for artificial intelligence. What does this move say about Apple's artificial intelligence efforts? We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members: 

  • How much of a risk would Jony Ive's departure pose to Apple? 
  • Could Apple's supply "issues" be intentional?
  • What is Apple's long term strategy in the education market? 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple 1Q17 Earnings Preview (iPhone, Guidance, Estimate Summary)

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple 1Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPhone)
  • Apple 1Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - Guidance)
  • Apple 1Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 5 - Estimate Summary)

Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 1Q17 earnings preview. (The first half is available here.) We discuss my iPhone sales estimate. We go over some of the data that drove my thought process regarding 1Q17 iPhone sales. The email then turns to mangement's 2Q17 guidance. We discuss the most likely revenue guidance range, as well as how Wall Street may react to guidance. The email concludes with an overview of my Apple financial estimates for 1Q17. We discuss where the biggest difference between my estimates and consensus/guidance is found and the factors driving that difference. 

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Apple 1Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 1 and 2), Sprint Buys 33 Percent of Tidal

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple 1Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Scene)
  • Apple 1Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Services, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch)
  • Sprint Buys 33 Percent of Tidal

We begin today's email with the first half of my Apple 1Q17 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on expectations heading into next week's earnings report. The email then turns to a closer look at Services, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch. We go over my unit sales and revenue estimates, as well as an overview of each product line heading into earnings. The email concludes with a discussion about Sprint buying a 33 percent stake in Tidal. We go over the deal's rationale for Sprint and Tidal, including what the deal means for the broader music streaming space. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple's New Leadership Structure, Apple Culture Risks, Tim Cook's Report Card

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple's New Leadership Structure
  • Apple Culture Risks
  • Tim Cook's Report Card

We begin today's email by continuing the discussion kicked off in my article, "Grading Tim Cook." After taking a deep dive into my theory regarding Apple's new leadership structure, we take a closer look at the key risks found with Apple's culture. Some of the changes put in place have elevated certain risks. The email then concludes with additional thoughts on my report card for Tim Cook as Apple CEO.

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Deep Dive into Netflix's 4Q16 Earnings, Netflix as an Acquisition Target, Digital Crown Coming to Android Wear

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Deep Dive into Netflix's 4Q16 Earnings
  • Netflix as an Acquisition Target
  • Digital Crown Coming to Android Wear

We kick off today's email with my thoughts and observations on Netflix's 4Q16 earnings. We go over the key numbers and some of the main takeaways. The discussion then turns to the subject of Netflix being an acquisition target. After going over the companies that are even in a position to acquire Netflix, we discuss the prospects of anyone making a play for Netflix. We also circle back to the Netflix/Apple M&A discussion, and wheter there is rationale for Apple to acquire Netflix. The email concludes with a brief look at an interesting development in the smartwatch space as Google and LG embrace a digital crown for their new Android Wear flagship smartwatches. This may signal other changes coming to Android Wear and the broader smartwatch space. 

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The Logic Behind Apple Owning Content, Mac Sales Mix Estimate, China Concerned About Foxconn's iPhone Plans

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • The Logic Behind Apple Owning Content
  • Mac Sales Mix Estimate
  • China Concerned About Foxconn's iPhone Plans

We begin today's email with my thoughts and observations on Apple owning content. Specifically, we discuss the logic behind Apple video content being made available on Android, and how such a move makes sense for Apple. We also discuss why it is important for Apple to own content and be more than just a distributor. The discussion then turns to the Mac and my estimate for the current Mac sales mix by model (Mac portables vs. iMac vs. Mac Pro/Mac Mini). The email concludes with a few observations related to news that China is concerned about Foxconn possibly moving some of its iPhone production to the U.S.   

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Apple's Five-Year Roadmap, Motivation Behind Apple's Original Video Content Push, Andy Rubin's New Start-Up

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple's Five-Year Roadmap
  • Motivation Behind Apple's Original Video Content Push
  • Andy Rubin's New Start-Up

We begin today's email by continuing the discussion kicked off in my article, "The Battle Lines in Tech are Being Redrawn." Specifically, we take a closer look at Apple's five-year product roadmap. We discuss the three product categories that will be able to garner an increasing amount of attention within Apple. The discussion then turns to the WSJ's report of Apple pushing into original video content. We go over Apple's motivation behind the move. The email ends with a closer look at Andy Rubin's new start-up. While the focus appears to be on selling a high-end smartphone, there is something else going on behind the scenes. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Deep Dive into 4Q16 PC and Mac Shipments, iPhone Sales Momentum Continues in U.S., Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Deep Dive into 4Q16 PC and Mac Shipments
  • iPhone Sales Momentum Continues in U.S. 
  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email with my thoughts and observations on 4Q16 PC and Mac shipment data from Gartner and IDC. We discuss how to analyze Mac sales trends given the new MacBook Pros and Apple's future Mac strategy. The email then turns to smartphone sales share data from November. We go over the latest trends in the U.S., China, and Europe. This provides a clearer view of FY1Q17 iPhone sales. We also briefly discuss what the data suggests about the 2017 iPhone sales environment. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following question from an Above Avalon member: 

  • Will U.S. mobile carriers continue to "subsidize" iPhones during launch months? 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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