Thoughts on iPhone Sales
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on iPhone Sales
- The Morgan Stanley Report
- What's Really Happening with iPhone Sales?
- Changing iPhone Strategies
- AAPL Stock in 2016
- Final Takeaways
Today's email will be dedicated to the iPhone and specifically my thoughts on iPhone sales. Morgan Stanley released a report yesterday calling for iPhone sales to decline in FY2016. We take a look at the note and then peel back some layers to see what is really happening with iPhone sales in recent months and what may be the root cause. We then look at three strategies Apple management will likely utilize to address these iPhone sales concerns. We conclude with a few thoughts on AAPL shares in context of these slowing iPhone sales reports.
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Apple's Taylor Swift Movie, Faraday Future's Nevada Car Factory, Hyundai Gives Up on Car Software
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Wins Exclusive Taylor Swift Movie Deal
- Faraday Future To Build Nevada Car Factory
- Hyundai Gives Up Auto Software Efforts
We begin today's email by discussing how Apple is once again moving down the path of original programming, this time with a Taylor Swift movie. Apple faces one huge dilemma when its comes to content, and this Taylor Swift movie only goes to exemplify how difficult it is for Apple to choose a path forward. We then shift over to news that Faraday Future, the "secretive" electric car start-up, chose Nevada to build its car factory. There are a few takeaways about this news when thinking of Project Titan. We conclude with a few notes on Hyundai giving up on its auto software efforts.
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iPhone Sales Trends in October, Netflix's Growing Bet on Original Content, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- iPhone Sales Trends in October
- Netflix's Growing Bet on Original Content
- Thursday Q&A: What type of financial impact would Apple's accessories have on Apple and will stronger accessories revenue make it more difficult to estimate Apple Watch sales? What do I think about these rumors about a new Apple TV box in early 2016?
We kick things off with a look at the latest smartphone sales trend for the month of October via Kantar. We break up the discussion into three buckets: U.S., Europe, and China. There does appear to be some changes taking place when compared to how iPhone had been doing earlier this year. We then shift over to Netflix's recent presentation at a Wall Street conference earlier this week. Netflix's comments about its original programming strategy on a global scale caught my attention and has direct implications on Apple and Apple TV. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and two questions (one on Apple accessories, the other on Apple TV).
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A Big Setback for Apple TV, Apple's $99 iPhone Smart Battery Case
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- A Big Setback for Apple TV
- Apple's $99 iPhone Smart Battery Case
We kick off today's email by looking at the exclusive scoop from Bloomberg saying that Apple's plans for a slimmed down TV cable bundle have stalled. We run through the reasoning, implications, and takeaways from this announcement. We then turn to the intense debate concerning Apple's decision to release a Smart Battery Cover for iPhone. There are two non-design takeaways related to this announcement. We also briefly touch upon the interesting Apple design debate that took place on the web yesterday.
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Deep-Dive Into 3Q15 Wearables Market, Self-Driving Cars as Living Pods
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Deep-Dive Into 3Q15 Wearables Market
- Self-Driving Cars as Living Pods
Today's email is focused on the 3Q15 wearables market. We take a closer look at the market share leaders and then analyze ASP and revenue trends to reach a more valuable discussion about the industry. Clear trends begin to appear in terms of how the very young wearables market is bifurcating in terms of functionality and price. We then conclude with a thought-experiment dealing with self-driving cars and why the future will likely be very different than most people think.
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A New 4-Inch iPhone, TAG Heuer Provides Early Update on Its Connected Watch
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- A New 4-Inch iPhone
- TAG Heuer Provides Early Update on Its Connected Watch
We kick things off by taking a closer look at the latest round of 4-inch screen iPhone rumors. These rumors are so intriguing because they are not intuitive. By selling a new 4-inch iPhone, Apple may be going after a few new goals, which we will discuss. We then shift to news of TAG Heuer disclosing production rates for its new connected watch and Jean-Claude Biver giving clues as to what may be next from TAG Heuer. We may be seeing two distinct paths form in the smartwatch market, which will undoubtedly impact Apple and the range of Swiss watchmakers.
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Additional Thoughts on The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products, United Airlines Will Buy 6,000 Apple Computers, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Additional Thoughts on The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products
- United Airlines Will Buy 6,000 Apple Computers
- Thursday Q&A: Why don't retailers encourage Apple Pay usage?
In today's email, we are going deeper into The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products post that I published yesterday. Specifically, we are going to look at some of the financial implications behind Apple's new product theory, some of which may be a bit controversial. We then shift over to news of United Airlines buying 6,000 Apple computers for its customer service representatives. There is a very straightforward, yet powerful, takeaway from this news when looking at Apple and the enterprise market. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and a question about retailers advertising their Apple Pay support.
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Apple News Is a Proxy, Declining Apple Pay Usage Trends, Google Hires Tesla "Autopilot" Executive
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple News Is a Proxy
- Declining Apple Pay Usage Trends
- Google Hires Tesla "Autopilot" Executive
We begin today's email by discussing Apple News. Eddy Cue discussed Apple's latest app with CNN, representing the first extended comments from Apple on Apple News since launch. At the end of the day, Apple News is a proxy for a much bigger question facing Apple. We then shift over to new data pointing to declining Apple Pay usage and what may be going on with mobile payments. We conclude with news of Google hiring a Tesla executive and an update on the new talent war taking place in technology.
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Selling Electric Cars, Target's "Apple Monday" Sale
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Selling Electric Cars
- Target's "Apple Monday" Sale
We begin today's email by looking at the recent The New York Times article on why car dealers don't like selling electric cars in the U.S. We discuss how the way cars are sold today will end up being a problem facing legacy automakers while new auto start-ups, like Apple, will be given an opportunity to rethink distribution. We also go over details as to how electric cars will likely be sold in the future. We then shift over to Target's big bet on Apple for its Cyber Monday sale and why Target should have renamed it "Apple Monday."
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Disney Discloses ESPN Subscriber Data, The iPhone Won Black Friday
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Disney Discloses ESPN Subscriber Data
- The iPhone Won Black Friday
We begin this week with ESPN and the cable bundle. Disney released the latest subscriber numbers for ESPN and its network of channels. We take a closer look at the data and what it suggests about the current state of the cable bundle and more importantly, what it all means for Disney and Apple's video plans. We then shift over to the latest data on Black Friday sales and the trends found in some of the numbers when it comes to e-commerce data for iOS vs. Android, and smartphones vs. tablets. There are clear winners and losers.
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The iPad Mini Experiment, Vine Comes to Apple Watch, Apple's Black Friday
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The iPad Mini Experiment
- Vine Comes to Apple Watch
- Apple's Black Friday
We begin today's email by discussing the iPad mini experiment. We look at why the device is the most intriguing iPad and how analyzing the iPad mini leads to better conclusions about the iPad's long-term trajectory. We then discuss Vine's new Apple Watch app and what it means for Apple Watch and third-party Watch apps. We conclude with a few words on Apple and Black Friday.
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Faraday Future, 3Q15 Smartphone Industry Profit Share Observation
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Faraday Future
- 3Q15 Smartphone Industry Profit Share Observation
We kick off today's email with Faraday Future, an electric car start-up that is making some waves in tech and auto circles. Some think the company is a front for Project Titan, while others say it is an Elon Musk-backed operation. In reality, the clues suggest something different. We take a closer look at the story behind Faraday Future. Next, we shift over to news that Apple captured nearly 95% of the smartphone industry's profit last quarter. We discuss why the much more important takeaway for Apple related to the data has nothing to do with industry profit share.
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Swiss Watch Exports Down 9% in October, The Motivation Behind the New Apple Watch Charging Dock
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Swiss Watch Exports Down 9% in October
- The Motivation Behind the New Apple Watch Charging Dock
We begin today's email by discussing Swiss Watch exports for the month of October. Trends continue to head in a negative direction and it is becoming more difficult to brush them off as one-offs or just due to currency moves. We then shift over to Apple's new $79 Apple Watch magnetic charging dock. While some may look at the dock as just an overpriced toy, I view it as a clear indication of Apple's Watch strategy playing itself out. The themes of luxury, accessories, and experiences need to be discussed. We conclude with a brief discussion of how luxury accessories can impact Apple's bottom line.
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"Apple-as-a-Service" Primer, The McLaren Technology Centre
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- "Apple-as-a-Service" Primer
- The McLaren Technology Centre
Today's email includes an "Apple-as-a-Service" Primer, taking a closer look at Goldman Sachs' big AAPL note yesterday and the topic of Apple transitioning to a services company.
There are seven parts:
- What Happened?
- Background
- What did Goldman Sachs say?
- Apple ARPU Details
- Peer Comparsion
- My Reaction
- Conclusion: Story vs. Strategy
We then have Thursday Q&A and a closer look at the McLaren Technology Centre outside of London.
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Thoughts on Apple TV, Jony Ive on Reinventing the Pencil
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Apple TV
- Jony Ive on Reinventing the Pencil
We kick things off today with Apple TV. There is no denying it is a different kind of Apple product. While there are a number of noteworthy and intriguing features found in the latest product, the category's fundamental value is likely found elsewhere. In some respects, the Apple TV is a trojan horse wrapped in an App Store. We then shift over to one of the more interesting interviews given on iPad Pro/Apple Pencil, courtesy of Jony Ive and the website Wallpaper. We take a closer look at how Apple is positioning the Apple Pencil in relation to the broader theme of touch-based computing.
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