iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon story:
iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's email is dedicated to discussing my updated iPhone sales estimates ahead of Apple's earnings next week. We go over my estimates for 1Q16, 2Q16, 3Q16, and 4Q16. We then discuss the major themes and drivers behind my iPhone estimates. There are three sections:
- The Estimates
- Major iPhone Sales Themes (China Growth, iPhone "S" Cycle, 4-Inch iPhone, iPhone Sales Perspective)
- Conclusion
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Apple & Time Warner, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple & Time Warner (story with five parts)
- Thursday Q&A (How likely is it for Icahn to unwind his large AAPL position?, What are odds of a foreign tax holiday in 2016?
Today's email is dedicated to Apple & Time Warner. The NY Post is reporting that Apple is interested in Time Warner. This is not the first time Apple has been rumored to be interested in Time Warner, and this won't be the last. We take a deep-dive into the story, breaking it up into five sections:
- Time Warner 101
- Crown Jewel
- Why Buy Time Warner?
- Reality
- Conclusion
We then conclude with Thursday Q&A and two questions (Carl Icahn and foreign tax reform).
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Share Buyback's Growing Importance, The Changing App Store Narrative, PC Industry's Disastrous 4Q15
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Share Buyback's Growing Importance
- The Changing App Store Narrative
- PC Industry's Disastrous 4Q15
We kick off today's email by focusing on why Apple's buyback program is positioned to play a bigger role going forward. There is a difference between AAPL, the stock, and Apple, the company, and management has a few tools to take advantage of the situation. We then shift over to Apple's recent press release highlighting App Store revenue trends for 2015. Instead of focusing just on the data, the changing narrative found with the App Store is much more interesting. We conclude by discussing two takeaways from Gartner's and IDC's 4Q15 PC shipments estimates.
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Apple Acquires Emotient, iOS 9.3, GM Thinks It Just Won the Electric Car Race
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Acquires Emotient
- iOS 9.3
- GM Thinks It Just Won the Electric Car Race
We begin today's email by discussing Apple's Emotient acquisition. We go over Emotient's specialties, possible use cases with the current technology, and why Apple is interested in such technology. Next, we shift over to iOS 9.3 and what looks to be a bigger than average release with a few headline features. Two features stood out to me in terms of their long-term ramifications. We then look at the Chevy Bolt and discuss why GM thinks it just beat Tesla (and Apple) to win the electric car race.
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Removing the iPhone Headphone Jack, Apple Music Subscriber Update
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Removing the iPhone Headphone Jack
- Apple Music Subscriber Update
We kick off today's email by discussing the ongoing rumors that Apple is looking to remove the 3.5mm iPhone headphone jack. Would this be done for iPhone thinness or simply to push legacy technologies to the curb? I suspect there is a different reason at play and it doesn't even have to do with the iPhone. We then shift over to Apple Music. The FT is reporting that the service has 10 million paying subscribers. Is 10 million a strong or weak number, expected or a surprise? What does it mean for Apple's battle with Spotify? We take a deep-dive into this 10 million subscriber number.
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Calling an iPhone Timeout, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Calling an iPhone Timeout
- Thursday Q&A (How does China devaluing the yuan impact Apple?, Am I surprised there were no Apple leaks during CES?, Why doesn't Apple comment on iPhone supply chain rumors?, Why haven't I talked about the new Star Wars movie considering its tech implications?)
Global markets are in turmoil reacting to The People's Bank Of China devaluing the yuan once again. The Chinese stock market closed after only 30 minutes of trading with the index falling 7%. AAPL looks to open around $98. In today's email, we take an iPhone timeout. People are no longer just concerned about iPhone 6s sales or 2Q numbers. Something has changed. We discuss why there is an iPhone "fire drill" taking place and why I want to call a timeout. We then look at the questions that actually matter when thinking about the iPhone and why this current phase will eventually pass. We conclude with Thursday Q&A.
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iPhone 6s/6s Plus Order Cuts, Strategy Behind Fitbit's Blaze Smartwatch
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- iPhone 6s/6s Plus Order Cuts
- Strategy Behind Fitbit's Blaze Smartwatch
There was a well-circulated report yesterday from Nikkei concerning rumored iPhone 6s and 6s Plus production rates, with implications on overall iPhone sales. We kick off today's email by going over the report in detail and discussing what is likely occurring with iPhone sales since the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus went on sale. Even though there are a few moving parts, there are likely valid explantations for what is occurring. We also briefly discuss iPhone sales estimates for 1Q16 and 2Q16.
We then shift our focus to Fitbit's new Blaze fitness watch. Fitbit shares were down 18% yesterday. Was it due to the Blaze? We go over Fitbit's strategy behind the Blaze and why the Blaze is so problematic.
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GM Partners with Lyft, Thoughts on Tesla's Delivery Rate, Faraday Future Shows Concept Car
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- GM Partners with Lyft
- Thoughts on Tesla's Delivery Rate
- Faraday Future Shows Concept Car
Today's email will have an automotive theme as we have a number of significant developments in the auto space, Apple's next big frontier. First up, we discuss GM's partnership with Lyft. After going over the rationale and logic behind such a deal, we go over how the new players and alliances are stacking up (there are at least seven key players, and likely more). We then shift over to Tesla's latest delivery announcement and tackle the question: Are Tesla delivery rates good or bad? We conclude with Faraday Future's big concept reveal at CES last night. Needless to say, it was...interesting.
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New Above Avalon Member Features, Tech Observations over the Holidays, Apple Device Activation Data (Christmas)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- New Above Avalon Member Features
- Tech Observations over the Holidays
- Apple Device Activation Data (Christmas)
In today's email, we discuss new features being launched for Above Avalon members including a new archive and member communication capabilities. Starting today, there will be an Above Avalon team in Slack. We then shift over to tech observations over the recent holiday and why something felt different this year. We conclude today's email by looking at Flurry smartphone and tablet activation data over the holidays and why the results looked a bit off for Apple devices.
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Starting with the Wrist
Today's Above Avalon story:
- Starting with the Wrist
There have been a handful of occasions over the past decade that stand out as era-defining moments in the tech space. We take a closer look at current tech trends to discover if we will one day look at 2015 as the start of a new tech era.
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Elon Musk Talks Autonomous Cars, The Hidden Media Story of 2015
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Elon Musk Talks Autonomous Cars
- The Hidden Media Story of 2015
In today's email, we go over Elon Musk's latest comments to Fortune about autonomous driving. We are getting a much clearer view on how to think about the prospects and likelihood of self-driving cars. We then shift to the media space and specifically the hidden media story of 2015. While M&A in the media space has picked up dramatically this year, there is a trend taking place that few saw coming. We discuss the implications this trend may have on media companies going forward, including news services such as Apple News.
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The '60 Minutes' Apple Profile, Google and Ford to Form Joint Venture, Apple Cuts iPhone 6s and 6s Plus Pricing in India
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The '60 Minutes' Apple Profile
- Google and Ford to Form Joint Venture
- Apple Cuts iPhone 6s and 6s Plus Pricing in India
We kick off today's email by taking a closer look at the '60 Minutes' profile about Apple. Charlie Rose was given unprecedented access to Apple in an effort to understand what makes Apple tick. We go over a few observations from the interviews. We then shift over to news that Google and Ford are going to announce a joint venture at CES. We conclude with Apple cutting iPhone 6s and 6s Plus pricing in India. What is going on in India? We take a closer look at Apple's evolving strategy.
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Apple Announces Executive Changes
Today's Above Avalon stories:
Apple Announces Executive Changes
- Jeff Williams
- Phil Schiller
- Johny Srouji
- Tor Myhren
- Final Thoughts
In today's email, we take a closer look at Apple's recent management changes. Specifically, we break apart the announcement into five sections: Jeff Williams, Phil Schiller, Johny Srouji, Tor Myhren, and Final Thoughts. We discuss the background and motivation behind each move, including the implications from the promotions/hire. We conclude with a few overall thoughts on Apple's executive changes and big-picture takeaways about Apple going forward.
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Huawei Targeting U.S. Smartphone Market, George Hotz's Self-Driving Car, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Huawei Targeting U.S. Smartphone Market
- George Hotz's Self-Driving Car
- Thursday Q&A: How will the U.S. Fed's interest rate decision impact Apple's plans to raise debt to fund buyback?
We begin today's email by taking a closer look at reports indicating Huawei is looking to enter the U.S. smartphone market in a big way in 2016. With a focus on the high-end of the market, Huawei's story is quite a bit different than Xiaomi's strategy. We go over Huawei's challenges and likely targets. We then shift over to a quick discussion on the fascinating Bloomberg story about George Hotz and self-driving cars. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and a question on how the Fed raising rates will impact Apple's share buyback plans.
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Howard Stern Signs New Deal with SiriusXM, Craig Federighi Talks Swift
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Howard Stern Signs New Deal with SiriusXM
- Craig Federighi Talks Swift
In today's email, we discuss Howard Stern's new deal with SiriusXM including a streaming video app component. There is much to say about this deal and the current state of media consumption and content delivery. We then shift over to Craig Federighi's interview with John Gruber of Daring Fireball. Federighi may have provided some clues on future products when discussing how certain Apple teams have embraced Swift.
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