Netflix 3Q17 Earnings, Netflix as an Acquirer, Apple Considered Buying Medical Clinics
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Netflix 3Q17 Earnings
- Netflix as an Acquirer
- Apple Considered Buying Medical Clinics
We kick off today's email with my thoughts and observations on Netflix's 3Q17 earnings. We go over the key points from management's conference call. The discussion then turns to Netflix M&A entering a new chapter where Netflix has become the acquirer and not target. We go over my thoughts on the possibility of a Netflix and Disney merger. The email concludes with my thoughts on CNBC's scoop that Apple considered acquiring Crossover Health, a start-up with a chain of medical clinics.
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iPhone Sales Strength in U.S. Continues, Qualcomm Seeks iPhone Ban in China
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- iPhone Sales Strength in U.S. Continues
- Qualcomm Seeks iPhone Ban in China
We kick off today's email by discussing the latest Kantar data regarding iPhone sales share. This monthly report is useful with Apple's 4Q17 earnings in mind. We go over my thoughts on the numbers. The discussion then turns to Qualcomm's legal maneuvering against Apple hitting a new level last week. We go over my thoughts on Qualcomm seeking to ban the sale and manufacture of iPhones in China. The discussion ends with a recap of Apple's two primary objectives to waging war against Qualcomm.
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Apple Screen Size Trends, Mark Zuckerberg's VR Vision, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple Screen Size Trends
- Mark Zuckerberg's VR Vision
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Apple screen size trends. We go over Apple's unit sales mix by screen size and then discuss what iPhone 8 Plus outselling iPhone 8 tells us about broader demand trends. The discussion then turns to Mark Zuckerberg's keynote speech at the Oculus developer conference. We go over my thoughts on his VR vision and how Apple thinks about VR. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- What's your take on Apple's perceived and real weaknesses in artificial intelligence?
- Is Jony Ive involved in Apple marketing?
- Do you have any estimates of the number of Apple Watch owners who are also actively pursuing fitness training in activities such as running, cycling, triathlon?
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Tim Cook Discusses AR Glasses, Deep Dive into 3Q17 Mac and PC Sales, Apple Bets on "Amazing Stories" Series
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Tim Cook Discusses AR Glasses
- Deep Dive into 3Q17 Mac and PC Sales
- Apple Bets on "Amazing Stories" Series
We kick off today's email with a closer look at Tim Cook's comments about AR glasses in an interview with The Telegraph. This Apple management team is not big into misdirection. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on IDC's and Gartner's 3Q17 PC shipment data. We take a closer look at their Mac shipment projections and how they compare with my expectations. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple selecting "Amazing Stories" for its initial slate of original video programming.
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iPad Installed Base and User Base Estimates, iPhone 8 Plus Outselling iPhone 8
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- iPad Installed Base and User Base Estimates
- iPhone 8 Plus Outselling iPhone 8
We kick off today's email with a deep dive into my iPad financial model. We go over my estimates for the size of the iPad installed base and user base. The discussion then turns to iPhone 8 and 8 Plus sales. The Plus model is outselling its smaller sibling. We discuss two possible explanations for this development and the broader implications regarding iPhone X demand and FY4Q17 & FY1Q18 iPhone unit sales.
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Jony Ive Speaks at The New Yorker Conference, Sonos Questions
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Jony Ive Speaks at The New Yorker Conference
- Sonos Questions
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Jony Ive's talk at The New Yorker's TechFest conference in New York City. We go over nine topics from the talk that jumped out at me. The email then turns to Sonos. Given that Apple views Sonos as a HomePod competitor, there is value found in keeping an eye on the company. We look at why the company's new Sonos One speaker ends up creating more questions than answers regarding the company's long-term prospects.
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Google's Hardware Event, Google Priorities, Areas of Concern for Apple
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Google's Hardware Event
- Google Priorities
- Areas of Concern for Apple
Today's email will be dedicated to discussing Google's big hardware event. We first go over my thoughts on Google's presentation and the new products, including the strongest and weakest points. We look at the presentation from Apple's perspective. We then take a closer look at Google's priorities in an AI-first world. The email concludes with my thoughts on which Google products should concern Apple from a competitive perspective.
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iPhone X Risk Is Being Underestimated, iPhone X Pricing Concerns Overblown, iOS 11 Adoption Pace
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- iPhone X Risk Is Being Underestimated
- iPhone X Pricing Concerns Overblown
- iOS 11 Adoption Pace
We kick off today's email by continuing the discussion found in this week's AboveAvalon.com article ("iPhone Courage"). Specifically, we go over how the risk found with iPhone X is being underestimated. We also go over why I don't think iPhone X pricing is as much of a concern as consensus assumes. The email concludes with my thoughts on iOS 11 adoption and what appears to be an accelerating adoption pace.
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Apple Watch Installed Base and User Base Estimates, Measuring Apple Watch Adoption, Apple Acquires Regaind
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple Watch Installed Base and User Base Estimates
- Measuring Apple Watch Adoption
- Apple Acquires Regaind
We kick off today's email with a deep dive into my Apple Watch financial model. We go over my estimates for the size of the Apple Watch installed base and user base. The discussion then turns to measuring Apple Watch adoption since launch. The email concludes with my thoughts and observations on Apple acquiring Regaind, a computer vision startup.
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Estimating iPhone Installed Base and User Base, Apple Music Subscriber Total Update, Music Streaming's Missing Piece
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Estimating iPhone Installed Base and User Base
- Apple Music Subscriber Total Update
- Music Streaming's Missing Piece
We begin today's email by discussing the iPhone installed base. I share my revised estimate for the size of the iPhone installed base as of the end of FY2017 (end of September). We then go over the difference between the iPhone installed base and user base, including my revised estimate for the size of the iPhone user base as of the end of FY2017. The email then turns to Apple Music. We discuss the latest Apple Music paid subscriber total and what Apple thinks is still missing from music streaming.
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Amazon's Peculiar Hardware Event, Gauging Amazon and Apple Competition, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Amazon's Peculiar Hardware Event
- Gauging Amazon and Apple Competition
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email with my thoughts and observations on Amazon's Echo hardware event yesterday in Seattle. The discussion then turns to the competitive dynamic between Amazon and Apple. We also go over who I think Amazon has in their crosshairs. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Does Apple care about competing with the Swiss watch industry?
- Why are you so negative regarding mechanical watches?
- Where do Dyson's automotive plans fit in the evolving transportation marketplace?
- What do I think about the iPhone Upgrade Program?
- When would it make sense to unveil the second version of iPhone X?
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Grading Apple Watch on a Curve, Swiss Watch Makers Still in Denial, Thoughts on iPhone X Production
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Grading Apple Watch on a Curve
- Swiss Watch Makers Still in Denial
- Thoughts on iPhone X Production
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on why the Apple Watch is such a polarizing product. We look at how the Apple Watch is being graded on a curve. The discussion then turns to why I think the Swiss watch industry is still in denial about Apple Watch's long-term impact on their business. The email then turns to my thoughts on three iPhone X production rumors and what they mean regarding the iPhone X launch and Apple's quarterly earnings.
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iPhone Sales in China Continue to Stabilize, Apple Replaces Bing with Google for Siri Search
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- iPhone Sales in China Continue to Stabilize
- Apple Replaces Bing with Google for Siri Search
We kick off today's email by discussing the latest Kantar data regarding iPhone sales share. There are an increasing number of signs pointing to iPhone sales stabilizing in China. We go over my thoughts on the numbers. The discussion then turns to Apple making a big change when it comes to the default web search provider for Siri and Spotlight. We go over the news and Apple's motivation behind the change.
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Long Lines Outside Apple Stores Are History, Early iPhone 8 Sales Trends, Google Buys HTC Assets
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Long Lines Outside Apple Stores Are History
- Early iPhone 8 Sales Trends
- Google Buys HTC Assets
We kick off today's email with my thoughts and observations on the lack of lines outside Apple Retail stores for the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus launch. The discussion turns to Apple giving BuzzFeed unprecedented access into its product launch war room. We go over Apple's motivation in giving BuzzFeed such access and what it tells us about future Apple product launches. The email then turns to early iPhone 8 and 8 Plus sales trends as measured by iPhone user share. We derive an estimate for how iPhone 8 demand is trending relative to iPhone 7 during the same time period last year. We then go over my thoughts on Google acquiring hardware assets from HTC for $1.1 billion.
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A Cellular Apple Watch Black Eye, My Cellular Apple Watch Connectivity Issue Theory, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- A Cellular Apple Watch Black Eye
- My Cellular Apple Watch Connectivity Issue Theory
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email with my thoughts and observations on cellular Apple Watch Series 3 reviews. We go over the reviews and focus on reports of cellular Apple Watches experiencing severe LTE connectivity issues. Upon closer examination, there is something about these connectivity issues and Apple's official response to the issues that doesn't sit well with me. The email then turns to my theory on what may be going on with the cellular Apple Watch. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Why is Apple still pushing sizable price increases in non-US markets?
Will Face ID be integrated into iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac? What about other initiatives? - When will Apple disclose Apple Watch sales? Would the Watch be shown as a separate product category?
- Do you think Apple missed the opportunity to "revolutionize" TV?
- Why didn't Apple extend the dual-camera system to iPhone 8?
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