Apple Earnings Model, Apple FY2018 and FY2019 Estimates, Apple Valuation

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple Earnings Model
  • Apple FY2018 and FY2019 Estimates
  • Apple Valuation

Today's email begins with my Apple earnings model. As previously announced with the Above Avalon 2.0 launch, my Apple earnings model is now available for Above Avalon members. 
The discussion includes a brief tutorial on earnings models. The email then turns to my FY2018 and FY2019 estimates and concludes with my thoughts on Apple's latest valuation metrics. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple's Growth Narrative, Amazon Considering Buying Movie Theaters, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple's Growth Narrative
  • Amazon Considering Buying Movie Theaters
  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "Apple's Growth Story." In particular, we discuss the big picture regarding Apple's growth narrative over the next few years. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Amazon considering buying a chain of movie theaters. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:

  • Now that we saw what the $2.3B funded Magic Leap AR headset is capable of and looks like (bulky size & requires cables with external clip), how sure are you that Apple glasses will be ready within the next 1-2 years?
  • The Mac seems like it’s been given a higher priority at Apple recently. Do you feel it’s still Apple’s Achilles Heel?
  • Do you think “VoiceFirst” and “VoiceCommerce” are well past the hype cycle and heading fast for the trough of disillusionment?
  • Regarding Apple’s project Titan perspective change in the past, and Tesla’s manufacturing challenges, do you think Apple made the right decision to focus on not the car itself but the platform/software aspect of it? What might be a scenario in which Apple’s “carOS” would become crucial for the industry and make Apple “relevant” in the auto industry.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

2Q18 Stationary Smart Speaker Sales, Estimating HomePod Sales, Amazon Alexa Device Sales Uncovered

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • 2Q18 Stationary Smart Speaker Sales
  • Estimating HomePod Sales
  • Amazon Alexa Device Sales Uncovered

Today's email has a stationary smart speaker theme. We kick off the discussion with a look at 2Q18 smart speaker industry sales. The discussion then turns specifically to HomePod sales. We conclude with a look at Amazon Alexa device sales. We go over a few ways to think about Alexa device sales in the context of the wrist wearables industry and the broader stationary smart speaker space. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Peak Smartphone Innovation Absurdity, Swiss Watch Market Is Bifurcating, Waymo Announces Corporate Partnerships

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Peak Smartphone Innovation Absurdity
  • Swiss Watch Market Is Bifurcating
  • Waymo Announces Corporate Partnerships

We begin today's email with the debate around whether or not we have seen peak innovation in the smartphone industry. The discussion then turns to the latest Swiss watch market sales trends and how Apple Watch is using design to change the watch industry. We conclude with my thoughts on Waymo announcing a number of new corporate partnerships involving self-driving cars.  

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Doug Field Joins Project Titan, Samsung’s Product Event in NYC, Samsung Continues to Bet on Circular Smartwatch Faces

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Doug Field Joins Project Titan
  • Samsung’s Product Event in NYC
  • Samsung Continues to Bet on Circular Smartwatch Faces

Today’s email begins with my thoughts on Doug Field returning to Apple. The discussion then turns to Samsung's product event in NYC, including the company's odd bet on circular smartwatch faces. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Deep Dive into iPhone Channel Inventory, Estimating Sell-Through iPhone Demand, Apple Paid Subscription Trends

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Deep Dive into iPhone Channel Inventory
  • Estimating Sell-Through iPhone Demand
  • Apple Paid Subscription Trends

Today’s email begins with a closer look at iPhone channel inventory. We discuss some changes that have taken place in Apple's strategy. The email then turns to estimating sell-through demand for iPhone (excludes the impact from channel inventory adjustments). The discussion concludes with a look at Apple's paid subscriber trends. We go over the quarterly change in the number of paid subscriptions and my estimate of how much revenue Apple is bringing in from paid subscriptions. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Elon Musk Wants to Take Tesla Private, Tesla Funding and Apple, Disney Discusses Video Strategy 

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Elon Musk Wants to Take Tesla Private
  • Tesla Funding and Apple
  • Disney Discusses Video Strategy

Today’s email begins with the big Tesla news. The discussion then switches gears to talk about video streaming as Disney provided the clearest view yet of its video plans.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Fitbit Earnings, Garmin Earnings, Wrist Wearables Market Observations

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Fitbit Earnings
  • Garmin Earnings
  • Wrist Wearables Market Observations

Today’s email has a wearables theme as we discuss Fitbit and Garmin earnings, concluding with some of my observations regarding developments in the wrist wearables space.

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple 3Q18 10-Q Notes, Apple Surpasses Trillion-Dollar Market Cap 

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 10-Q Notes
  • Apple Surpasses Trillion-Dollar Market Cap

Today's email kicks off with my notes from Apple's 3Q18 10-Q. We cover 14 topics. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Apple reaching a trillion-dollar market cap and why so many articles written about the subject were off base. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Details)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Part 2 - Details)

Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 3Q18 earnings review. Yesterday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 25 different topics. 

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple 3Q18 earnings review and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Part 1 - Major Themes)

Today's email includes the first half of my Apple 3Q18 earnings review. We discuss the major themes from Apple's earnings report and conference call. The second half of my earnings review (available here) goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings release and conference call. 

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple 3Q18 earnings review and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple’s Tricky Road to a Trillion, Samsung’s Flagship Smartphone Not Selling Well, Walmart Exploring Subscription Video Streaming Service

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple’s Tricky Road to a Trillion
  • Samsung’s Flagship Smartphone Not Selling Well
  • Walmart Exploring Subscription Video Streaming Service

We begin today's email with my thoughts on the narrative that Apple's share buyback and dividends are making it increasingly difficult for Apple to reach a trillion dollar market cap. The discussion then turns to Samsung's earnings and the company blaming its weak performance on lackluster demand for its flagship smartphone. We conclude things with my thoughts on Walmart investigating its own subscription video streaming service.  

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple’s Growing Confidence in iPad, Spotify 2Q18 Earnings, Apple to Drop Qualcomm Modems

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple’s Growing Confidence in iPad
  • Spotify 2Q18 Earnings
  • Apple to Drop Qualcomm Modems

We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "The iPad vs. Mac Juxtaposition." In particular, we discuss how Apple's growing confidence in its iPad business is impacting the way it approaches the Mac. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Spotify's 2Q18 earnings. We conclude with a closer look at prospects of Apple moving away from Qualcomm modems in this year's flagship iPhones. 

This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Revenue, EPS, Share Buyback, 4Q18 Guidance), Facebook's Dramatic Stock Price Drop 

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - Revenue, EPS, Share Buyback, 4Q18 Guidance)
  • Facebook's Dramatic Stock Price Drop

Today's email concludes my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. We look at the more important financial line items in my model, including my share buyback and 4Q18 guidance projections. We also go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. The first three parts of my 3Q18 earnings preview are available: here (setting the stage), here (iPhone estimates), and here (iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services estimates).

We also discuss my thoughts on Facebook's big drop on Wall Street in response to the company's earnings. 

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here. 

 
 
 
 

Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services Estimates)

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics: 

  • Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services Estimates)

Today's email continues my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. The first two parts of the preview are available here (setting the stage) and here (iPhone estimates). 

Tomorrow's email will conclude my earnings preview with a big picture view heading into next week's earnings as well as my revenue, EPS, capital return, and 4Q18 guidance estimates.

My full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.