Apple to Chase Oscars, Apple In Running for J.J. Abrams Deal, Google Leaks Pixel 4
Happy Monday. We will begin a new week in video streaming land.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple earnings and financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news, Apple competitors, and keynotes/events.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive my exclusive daily email containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model Access. Have access to my Apple earnings model containing financial projections.
Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Archive Access. Read daily updates previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
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Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
The Apple Bull and Bear Case, The Roku Rocket, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
The Apple Bull and Bear Case
The Roku Rocket
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email by going over Apple’s bull and bear cases. The discussion then turns to my latest thoughts on Roku. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Do you think the antitrust threat will cause Apple to lower its 30% / 15% (for multi-year subscriptions) App Store revenue share to something more like 10% / 5%? What would be the impact on Apple revenue?
Given recent progress seen with autonomous vehicles (Tesla, Uber, Waymo, etc.) and news of Apple pursuing M&A in this area, what can we assume about Apple's strategy and ability to compete in this world? How much is Apple resourced in this area?
You’ve previously mentioned how Apple is pursuing a different business model in transportation compared to previous new product categories. What are the implications found with Apple’s strategy and its ability to execute out of the gate?
What are some good historical analogs for China successfully causing permanent harm to a foreign company through state fanned boycotting of their products?
With Apple poaching a major Disney exec to help build ATV+, what is the likelihood of Disney CEO Bob Iger stepping down from Apple's board?
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Fitbit's Highly Questionable Strategy, Smartwatches vs. Swiss Watch Shipments, The Most Important Slide from Mary Meeker
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Fitbit's Highly Questionable Strategy
Smartwatches vs. Swiss Watch Shipments
The Most Important Slide from Mary Meeker
We kick off today’s email with Fitbit and the company’s highly questionable strategy. The discussion then looks at the broader smartwatch industry and my estimates for Apple Watch, Fitbit, Fossil, and Garmin smartwatch shipments and revenue for 1Q19. We then compare smartwatch shipments to Swiss watch industry exports. The email concludes with the slide that stood out to me the most from Mary Meeker's latest "Internet Trends" presentation.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple and Monopsonies, Apple Sidestepping China Threat, Apple to Buy Drive.ai
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple and Monopsonies
Apple Sidestepping China Threat
Apple to Buy Drive.ai
Yesterday’s update was dedicated to discussing the U.S. government going after big tech on antitrust grounds. There was one additional topic related to antitrust that I wanted to go over today: monopsonies. The email will then shift to how Apple continues to sidestep the China threat. We also discuss Foxconn’s latest disclosure regarding moving iPhone production outside of China. The email concludes with Apple reportedly in talks to buy Drive.ai.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
U.S. Investigates Big Tech for Antitrust, Apple’s Antitrust Risk, Data Monopolies
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
U.S. Investigates Big Tech for Antitrust
Apple’s Antitrust Risk
Data Monopolies
Today's email is dedicated to discussing the U.S. government going after big tech on antitrust grounds. We go over my thoughts on the big picture and where Apple finds itself in this latest battle. In addition, we discuss my perspective on data monopolies.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Tim Cook Talks to CBS News, The Talk Show at WWDC, Additional Mac Pro Details
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Tim Cook Talks to CBS News
The Talk Show at WWDC
Additional Mac Pro Details
The email kicks off with the key takeaways from Tim Cook's interview with CBS News following the WWDC keynote. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on John Gruber's live episode of ‘The Talk Show’ at WWDC. The email concludes with more information on the new Mac Pro and Pro Display XDR courtesy of Axios and Doug Brooks, Apple product manager for the Mac Pro.
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Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple WWDC 2019 Review (Full Notes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple WWDC 2019 review. We discuss my full notes and focus on the granular takeaways from Apple’s WWDC keynote and Platforms State of the Union presentation.
The 2,800-word email covers 27 different topics.
(The first half of my WWDC review focused on the major themes is available here.)
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read my full Apple WWDC 2019 review and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple WWDC 2019 Review (Major Themes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update will focus on the major themes found in Apple’s WWDC keynote and Platforms State of the Union presentation.
The 2,400-word email focuses on the following themes:
Overall Impressions
Apple Watch Declares Independency
Privacy Was the Word
The New Mac Pro
iPad vs. Mac
(The second half of my WWDC review covering the granular takeaways and my full notes is available here.)
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read my full WWDC 2019 review and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Previewing Apple's WWDC 2019, Apple Unveils App Store Defense, Feeling the App Store Heat
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Previewing Apple's WWDC 2019
Apple Unveils App Store Defense
Feeling the App Store Heat
The email kicks off with my thoughts heading into Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC). We then shift to the App Store and Apple’s new webpage defending its App Store practices. The email concludes with my perspective on the pressure being put on Apple when it comes to the App Store. We also go over the remedy that makes the most sense for satisfying digital content subscription companies like Netflix and Spotify in terms of an adequate revenue share arrangement.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Citigroup Declined Apple Card, iPhone’s App Tracker Problem, iPod Touch’s Target Market
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Citigroup Declined Apple Card
iPhone’s App Tracker Problem
iPod Touch’s Target Market
We kick off today’s update with Apple Card and a report that Citigroup decided not to partner with Apple on a credit card due to profitably concerns. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on The Washington Post’s article regarding third-party iOS apps using data trackers and how the practice hurts Apple’s privacy image and narrative. We conclude with iPod touch. The market that Apple appears to be targeting with iPod touch is different than the device’s more realistic target market.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple Makes Privacy Sales Pitch, Pegatron Diversifies out of China, A Defiant Angela Ahrendts
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Makes Privacy Sales Pitch
Pegatron Diversifies out of China
A Defiant Angela Ahrendts
We begin today’s update with my thoughts on The Independent’s article regarding Apple’s data privacy strategy. The discussion then turns to news that Pegatron, Apple’s second-largest contract manufacturer, will invest in Indonesia. We look at how Pegatron’s move may provide a blueprint for how Apple will navigate the China risk factor. The email concludes with former head of Apple retail Angela Ahrendts giving an unusual on-camera interview with Bloomberg.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple / Tesla M&A Rumors Resurface, Apple’s Evolving Titan Strategy, Google Glass Enterprise 2.0
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple / Tesla M&A Rumors Resurface
Apple’s Evolving Titan Strategy
Google Glass Enterprise 2.0
We begin today’s update with rumors that Apple bid $240 per share for Tesla in 2013. The discussion includes my thoughts on the “bid,” Apple’s most likely thought process regarding a Tesla acquisition in 2019, and the company’s evolving strategy with Project Titan. The email concludes with the newest Google Glass version and a look at why face wearables have been a giant flop.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Gauging Apple's China Risk Factors, Qualcomm Loses FTC’s Antitrust Case, Apple Announces MacBook Keyboard Changes
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Gauging Apple's China Risk Factors
Qualcomm Loses FTC’s Antitrust Case
Apple Announces MacBook Keyboard Changes
Having discussed the big picture regarding Huawei and China in the past two daily updates, it’s worth taking a look at some of the more tangible near-term impacts on Apple from recent trade developments. We go over the three major risks Apple faces related to U.S. / China trade tensions. The discussion then turns to my initial thoughts on Judge Lucy Koh ruling against Qualcomm in the antitrust case brought forward by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The email concludes with a look at three MacBook keyboard updates.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
A Tech Cold War?, Tech Iron Curtain Skepticism, Gmail Tracks User Purchase Activity
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
A Tech Cold War?
Tech Iron Curtain Skepticism
Gmail Tracks User Purchase Activity
We begin today’s update with a discussion of whether or not recent Huawei developments represent the start of a new tech Cold War. We then go over my thoughts why I’m skeptical of claims that China will eventually embrace some kind of tech / digital iron curtain. The email concludes with the recent uproar over the discovery that Google tracks user purchase activity in Gmail.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Google Revokes Huawei’s Android License, Chipmakers Stop Supplying Huawei, The Tech Giant in the Weakest Position
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Google Revokes Huawei’s Android License
Chipmakers Stop Supplying Huawei
The Tech Giant in the Weakest Position
We jump right into today’s update with the breaking Huawei/Android news. The discussion revolves around my thoughts on who stands to benefit from Huawei losing access to Google’s proprietary apps and services. We also go over the increased speculation within some circles that China will go after Apple in retaliation for the U.S. targeting Huawei. The email concludes with a discussion regarding the tech giant that I think is in the weakest position from a competitive perspective.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.