The Apple Wearables Train, Apple Watch Unit Sales and Revenue, 3Q19 Apple Watch Installed Base
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
The Apple Wearables Train
Apple Watch Unit Sales and Revenue
3Q19 Apple Watch Installed Base
We kick off today’s email with additional comments on the newest Above Avalon article, “Apple Deserves More Credit for Wearables.” In particular, we focus on one piece of the story that can benefit from a bit more discussion: competing with Apple’s wearables business. The email then turns to my latest Apple Watch unit sales and revenue estimates. We conclude with my estimate for the size of the Apple Watch installed base (the number of Apple Watches in the wild) as of the end of June 2019.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Fitbit’s Dire Situation, Spotify Earnings, Disney Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Fitbit’s Dire Situation
Spotify Earnings
Disney Earnings
Today’s email will focus on three earnings reports from Apple competitors (Fitbit, Spotify, and Disney). We begin by discussing why it is time to begin asking the difficult questions when it comes to Fitbit’s future. The discussion then turns to Spotify and where I see things going for the company. We conclude with Disney’s results and new details regarding Disney+ bundling.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple Card Launches in U.S., Is Apple Card Disruptive?, Apple Pay Adoption in U.S.
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Card Launches in U.S.
Is Apple Card Disruptive?
Apple Pay Adoption in U.S.
Today’s email is going to have an Apple Card / Apple Pay theme as Apple launched Apple Card in the U.S. yesterday. We begin by going over my thoughts on Apple Card. The discussion then turns to whether or not Apple Card is disruptive to the payments and banking industries. We conclude with a look at Apple Pay adoption in the U.S. in terms of merchant acceptance and why a portion of merchants still aren’t supporting Apple Pay.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
China Allows the Yuan to Depreciate
Today's Above Avalon daily update is dedicated to discussing the developments surrounding China allowing the yuan to depreciate and the fallout related to the move. The actions have a direct impact on Apple and pretty much every company when considering overall market volatility.
The email includes the following sections:
What Happened?
Background
Current Implications
Market Volatility
Impact on Apple
Apple’s Large Stock Price Drop
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Notes from Apple’s 3Q19 10-Q, U.S. to Impose New Chinese Tariffs, Estimating Potential Tariffs Impact on Apple
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Notes from Apple’s 3Q19 10-Q
U.S. to Impose New Chinese Tariffs
Estimating Potential Tariffs Impact on Apple
We kick off today’s email with my key takeaways from Apple's 10-Q filing for 3Q19. We cover nine financial topics. The update then turns to tariffs. We go over my thoughts on the newest 10% tariffs that will cover $300B of Chinese goods including Apple products. The email includes the key assumptions that have to be made when assessing the financial impact tariffs have on Apple. We then go over my estimate for worst case scenarios on Apple financials when it comes to the newest tariffs.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 3Q19 Earnings Review (Details)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple 3Q19 earnings review. We discuss the details and granular takeaways from Apple’s earnings report and conference call.
The email covers 26 different topics.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
(The first half of my earnings review focused on the major takeaways is available here.)
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 3Q19 Earnings Review (Major Takeaways)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 3Q19 earnings review. We discuss the major themes and takeaways from Apple's earnings report and conference call.
The email includes the following sections:
3Q19: By the Numbers
We Are in the Apple Wearables Era
A China Rebound
The Apple Services Narrative Is Wrong
iPhone Stabilization
Share Buyback Bonanza
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
(The second half of my earnings review focused on the details granular takeaways is available here.)
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Flagship iPhone Orders for 2H19, Google Continues to Soft Unveil Pixel 4, Google Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Flagship iPhone Orders for 2H19
Google Continues to Soft Unveil Pixel 4
Google Earnings
We begin by assessing the latest rumor involving Apple’s order plans for new flagship iPhones in the second half of 2019. In particular, we look at what the numbers may suggest about Apple’s 4Q19 and 1Q20 iPhone results. The email then turns to Pixel 4 and Google’s unconventional way of unveiling the device. We go over why I think Google is making a huge mistake. We conclude by discussing Google’s 2Q19 earnings with a focus on Google’s traffic acquisition costs (TAC) and commentary on Pixel smartphone sales.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
A Siri Whistleblower Comes Forward, Tesla Earnings, Additional Thoughts on Apple and Intel
Today’s daily update kicks off with my thoughts on The Guardian’s reporting of a Siri whistleblower raising concerns with how Apple is handing Siri quality assurance. The discussion then turns to Tesla earnings. We go over the two things that jumped out at me regarding Tesla’s financials and what they tell me about the current state of the company. The email concludes with additional thoughts on Apple acquiring a majority of Intels’s smartphone modem business.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple Close to Buying Intel’s Smartphone Modem Business, Oddities Found with Apple / Intel Deal, WSJ Goes After App Store Search
The daily update kicks off with the latest on Apple reportedly being close to buying Intel’s smartphone modem business. (UPDATE: Apple officially announced the deal seconds after this update was published. Since the update was written under the assumption that a deal was imminent, the official announcement doesn't change any of the discussion found in the update.) We go over the items found with the deal that strike me as odd. The discussion then turns to the WSJ’s article focused on App Store search. The WSJ claims Apple’s App Store search practices are “thwarting” competitors. We go over why I think the WSJ is grasping at straws.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 3Q19 Earnings Preview (Second Half)
Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 3Q19 earnings preview. We go over my 3Q19 financial estimates for Apple’s non-iPhone business (Services, iPad, Mac, Wearables / Home / Accessories). We also go over the detailed methodology behind all of my estimates. The discussion then turns to 4Q19 revenue guidance and my final thoughts heading into earnings.
The email includes links to my working Apple earnings model containing all of my financial estimates ahead of Apple’s 3Q19 earnings. Above Avalon members have exclusive access to my working Apple earnings model at no additional cost.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
The first half of the preview (thoughts on Wall Street expectations and the overall environment heading into next week's earnings, my 3Q19 iPhone financial estimates) is available to members here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 3Q19 Earnings Preview (First Half)
Today's email includes the first half of my Apple 3Q19 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on Wall Street expectations and the overall environment heading into next week's earnings. The email then turns to going over my 3Q19 iPhone financial estimates (revenue, unit sales, and average selling price). We also go over the detailed methodology behind all of my estimates.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
The second half of the preview (estimates for Apple’s non-iPhone business, 4Q19 guidance, updated earnings model, final thoughts) is available here for members.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
2Q19 iPhone Sales Share, 2Q19 Microsoft Surface Sales, Tinder to Bypass App Store for Payment?
In today’s update, we will discuss one more batch of data (the latest iPhone sales share figures) that will play a role in my Apple FY3Q19 financial estimates. We will then shift over to estimating Surface sales and end with Tinder removing Google Play as a payment option. Included will be a broader discussion of apps that choose to go around Google Play and the App Store for payment.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Netflix’s Awful Earnings, The Video Industry Smells Blood, An Autonomous Apple Machine
We kick off today’s update with my thoughts on Netflix’s 2Q19 earnings. They were awful. The discussion then turns to how the video industry is smelling blood and gaining confidence in going up against Netflix. We conclude with additional comments on the latest Above Avalon article, “Jony Ive, Jeff Williams, and a Larger Apple.”
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple Testing the Waters for Exclusive Podcasts, Quantifying the Smart Speaker Mirage, The Perils of FaceApp
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Testing the Waters for Exclusive Podcasts
Quantifying the Smart Speaker Mirage
The Perils of FaceApp
We begin today’s email with my thoughts on Apple thinking about moving into original podcasts. The discussion then turns to a new report showing Alexa and stationary cheap smart speaker usage is not developing like consensus expected. We conclude with a look at how FaceApp, the iOS app that went viral, presents a dilemma for Apple when it comes to user privacy, the App Store, and oversight.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.