Let’s Hear From Siri (AVALON Podcast)
In the 50th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
Neil’s thoughts and expectations heading into WWDC.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) are expected to cause an issue for tech stocks. In terms of second-order thinking, are such concerns warranted?
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More information on Above Avalon bundle offers is available here.
What About an Agentic Ferrari? (AVALON Podcast)
In the 49th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
Google I/O impressions / reactions.
Agentic AI problems.
“Real Madrid: The Weight of Greatness.”
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
CY1Q26 smartphone sales share.
Apple unveils accessibility features powered by Apple Intelligence.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Social media going crazy with selling IPOs.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
Jony Ive / Marc Newson and the Ferrari Luce.
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Upon signup, you will receive a welcome email with directions for getting the AVALON podcast in your player. This episode will then automatically appear in your podcast player. AVALON can be listened to in Apple Podcasts and various third-party podcast players including Pocket Casts, Overcast, and Castro.
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Too Much Vision Noise (AVALON podcast)
In the 48th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
More media shenanigans / noise involving Apple Vision Pro.
Apple's long-term product strategy for spatial computing.
Why personal intelligence will be more difficult to nail than Big Tech assumes.
Googlebook vs. MacBook Neo.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
WWDC keynote invites are released.
Apple closed education discount loophole.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Data center gaslighting.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
The wide-ranging fallout from Amazon restructuring its Associates program (cutting affiliate link commissions).
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Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “Too Much Vision Noise” is in your podcast player.
If you previously subscribed to AVALON and need assistant adding the podcast to your podcast player, look for the welcome email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that was sent to when signing up.
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SKU This and SKU That (AVALON Podcast)
In the 47th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
DRAM and NAND pricing impact on Apple/iPhone.
Mac mini line changes.
Apple device SKU management (what is it, how is Apple using it to offset DRAM/NAND pressure).
Apple gross margin percentages vs. gross margin dollars.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Intel / Apple chip partnership.
FY2Q26 Apple share buyback pace (month by month)
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
MacBook Neo “dilemma” silliness.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
Equity market craziness.
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Choose a monthly subscription or go with annual to save. (Charges can be expensed by your employer as the podcast is filled with analysis and research. If you need paid invoice receipts, go with the annual plan.)
Upon signup, you will receive a welcome email with directions for getting the AVALON podcast in your player. This episode will then automatically appear in your podcast player. AVALON can be listened to in Apple Podcasts and various third-party podcast players including Pocket Casts, Overcast, and Castro.
Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “SKU This and SKU That” is in your podcast player.
If you previously subscribed to AVALON and need assistant adding the podcast to your podcast player, look for the welcome email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that was sent to when signing up.
Bundle an AVALON subscription with an Above Avalon Daily newsletter subscription and save 40%. Bundle AVALON with Above Avalon Daily + Podcasts package and receive AVALON for free. This is the best offer available in the Above Avalon ecosystem. More information on bundle offers is available here.
Selling as Many as They Can (AVALON Podcast)
In the 46th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
Product takeaways from Apple’s 2Q26 earnings.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Changes to Apple’s capital return strategy.
Mac mini SKU changes.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Greg Abel using an AI deepfake of Warren Buffett to ask the first question during Berkshire’s annual meeting.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
What Berkshire Hathaway may look like after Warren Buffett.
Become a subscriber to listen to the full 79-minute episode.
Choose a monthly subscription or go with annual to save. (Charges can be expensed by your employer as the podcast is filled with analysis and research. If you need paid invoice receipts, go with the annual plan.)
Upon signup, you will receive a welcome email with directions for getting the AVALON podcast in your player. This episode will then automatically appear in your podcast player. AVALON can be listened to in Apple Podcasts and various third-party podcast players including Pocket Casts, Overcast, and Castro.
Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “Selling as Many as They Can” is in your podcast player.
If you previously subscribed to AVALON and need assistant adding the podcast to your podcast player, look for the welcome email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that was sent to when signing up.
Bundle an AVALON subscription with an Above Avalon Daily newsletter subscription and save 40%. Bundle AVALON with Above Avalon Daily + Podcasts package and receive AVALON for free. This is the best offer available in the Above Avalon ecosystem. More information on bundle offers is available here.
Charting the Course Forward (AVALON Podcast)
In the 45th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
John Ternus as Apple CEO - what will things look like?
Apple's direction from a product perspective.
The problems that Apple is well-suited to addressing.
Four values that will guide Apple's product strategy over the next 10 to 20 years.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Previewing Apple’s earnings.
An OpenAI smartphone?
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Asinine takes regarding the Apple CEO transition including that Apple will become a “hardware company” with John Ternus as CEO.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
Our dependence on consumer gadgets is growing - standing at contrast to the “post device” theories that circulated around Silicon Valley in the 2010s.
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If you previously subscribed to AVALON and need assistant adding the podcast to your podcast player, look for the welcome email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that was sent to when signing up.
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As Smooth as Can Be (AVALON Podcast)
In the 44th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
Amazon to acquire Globalstar.
Apple to partner with Amazon Leo.
John Ternus to succeed Tim Cook as Apple CEO (and related topics).
Tim Cook to become Apple Executive Chairman (and related topics).
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Macbook Neo’s “dilemma”
iPhone Air popularity by country.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Bashing spatial computing headsets because of the Sphere (Las Vegas).
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
Getting CEO succession right is extremely difficult.
Become a subscriber to listen to the full 69-minute episode.
Choose a monthly subscription or go with annual to save. (Charges can be expensed by your employer as the podcast is filled with analysis and research. If you need paid invoice receipts, go with the annual plan.)
Upon signup, you will receive a welcome email with directions for getting the AVALON podcast in your player. This episode will then automatically appear in your podcast player. AVALON can be listened to in Apple Podcasts and various third-party podcast players including Pocket Casts, Overcast, and Castro.
Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “As Smooth as Can Be” is in your podcast player.
If you previously subscribed to AVALON and need assistant adding the podcast to your podcast player, look for the welcome email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that was sent to when signing up.
Bundle an AVALON subscription with an Above Avalon Daily newsletter subscription and save 40%. Bundle AVALON with Above Avalon Daily + Podcasts package and receive AVALON for free. This is the best offer available in the Above Avalon ecosystem. More information on bundle offers is available here.
Look At Me, I’m The Media Now (AVALON Podcast)
In the 43rd episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
OpenAI buys TBPN.
What is OpenAI thinking?
The changing tech media landscape.
Apple’s evolving approach to media.
Problems and difficulties found with Apple's media approach.
The best business model for new media.
Become a subscriber to listen to the full 65-minute episode.
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Upon signup, you will receive a welcome email with directions for getting the AVALON podcast in your player. This episode will then automatically appear in your podcast player. AVALON can be listened to in Apple Podcasts and various third-party podcast players including Pocket Casts, Overcast, and Castro.
Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “Look At Me, I’m The Media Now” is in your podcast player.
If you previously subscribed to AVALON and need assistant adding the podcast to your podcast player, look for the welcome email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that was sent to when signing up.
Bundle an AVALON subscription with an Above Avalon Daily newsletter subscription and save 40%. Bundle AVALON with Above Avalon Daily + Podcasts package and receive AVALON for free. This is the best offer available in the Above Avalon ecosystem. More information on bundle offers is available here.
Apple at 50 (AVALON Podcast)
In the 42nd episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
Thoughts regarding Apple at 50 years.
The two Apple eras.
Steve Jobs' Apple return in 1997.
Apple and the next 50 years.
Apple's opportunity going forward.
Apple's biggest risk going forward.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Mac Pro being discontinued.
iPhone supply constraints continue.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Tech founders / CEOs doing too many firestorm chats these days.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
How sports fuel the purest form of storytelling imaginable (as seen with UConn vs. Duke and Braylon Mullins’ winning shot) and why we need tech to save sports.
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I’m Buying the Pizza Keywords (AVALON Podcast)
In the 41st episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
Apple's 50th anniversary celebrations.
Tim Cook's "50 Years of Thinking Different" letter.
Advertising comes to Apple Maps.
Apple launches "Apple Business" platform.
Mac sales new user record.
Apple Sports app gaining momentum.
Bloomberg’s ridiculous profile of John Ternus
OpenAI kills Sora.
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Choose a monthly subscription or go with annual to save. (Charges can be expensed by your employer as the podcast is filled with analysis and research. If you need paid invoice receipts, go with the annual plan.)
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Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “I’m Buying the Pizza Keywords” is in your podcast player.
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Bundle an AVALON subscription with an Above Avalon Daily newsletter subscription and save 40%. Bundle AVALON with Above Avalon Daily + Podcasts package and receive AVALON for free. This is the best offer available in the Above Avalon ecosystem. More information on bundle offers is available here.
Hook, Line, and Sinker (AVALON Podcast)
In the 40th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
iPhone 17e.
Neil’s thoughts on Mac and iPad updates (including M5 Pro and M5 Max chips).
Major themes connecting Apple's various Mac and iPad updates.
Google launches Immersive Navigation and Ask Maps for Google Maps.
Apple's original bet with digital mapping.
How some tech writers got MacBook Neo all wrong.
Tim Cook on why there isn’t another company like Apple.
Become a subscriber to listen to the 65-minute episode.
Choose a monthly subscription or go with annual to save. (Charges can be expensed by your employer as the podcast is filled with analysis and research. If you need paid invoice receipts, go with the annual plan.)
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Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “Hook, Line, and Sinker” is in your podcast player.
If you previously subscribed to AVALON and need assistant adding the podcast to your podcast player, look for the welcome email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that was sent to when signing up.
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More Lime Than Lemon (AVALON Podcast)
In the 39th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
More on the "experiences" Apple held to unveil MacBook Neo.
His hands-on with MacBook Neo / initial impressions using the device.
Apple's interesting TikTok strategy for marketing Neo/Mac.
More on the Windows Brigade being doomed
PC industry sales numbers.
Apple price umbrellas (Mac vs. iPhone)
Early lessons from Neo.
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Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “More Lime Than Lemon” is in your podcast player.
If you previously subscribed to AVALON and need assistant adding the podcast to your podcast player, look for the welcome email (from “Neil Cybart via Transistor”) that was sent to when signing up.
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Thoughts Heading Into WWDC 2026
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Thoughts Heading Into WWDC 2026
Hello everyone. WWDC kicks off on Monday. For today’s update, we will go over what’s been on my mind in preparation for next week’s WWDC.
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Alphabet Raises Equity, Berkshire Increases Alphabet Stake, Apple Implications
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Alphabet Raises Equity
Berkshire Increases Alphabet Stake
Apple Implications
We begin with Neil’s thoughts on Alphabet’s plan to raise $80B+ of equity. The discussion then turns to Berkshire Hathaway increasing its stake in Alphabet to more than $30B. We conclude by discussing the potential of Apple following Alphabet in raising equity.
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Oura Unveils Ring 5, Revisiting Swiss Watch Sales, Swatch and Audemars Piguet Launch Royal Pop Watch
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Oura Unveils Ring 5
Revisiting Swiss Watch Sales
Swatch and Audemars Piguet Launch Royal Pop Watch
Today’s update will have a wearables theme as we begin with smart rings and then shift up a bit to the wrist. We discuss why it remains difficult for Neil to get worked up over smart rings. The update then looks at how Apple Watch has impacted Swiss Watch sales (from 2014 to 2025). This sets the scene to then discuss Swatch and Audemars Piguet collaborating on a pocket watch. We go over why Audemars Piguet (AP) is involved with selling a $400 Swatch pocket watch.
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The Ferrari Luce, Project Titan vs. Ferrari Luce, Rivian Talks Down CarPlay (Again)
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
The Ferrari Luce
Project Titan vs. Ferrari Luce
Rivian Talks Down CarPlay (Again)
The update will have an automobile theme as we discuss various design paths being taken in personal transport. We begin with the Ferrari Luce. After discussing Luce’s various design attributes, we compare the Luce to what Apple was working on with Project Titan. More than a few people took to social media to say that Ferrari Luce was the vehicle that Apple couldn’t get across the finish line with Project Titan. That’s not an accurate assessment. We conclude with Rivian’s software chief’s odd interview with The Verge. There is a flaw in Rivian’s thinking regarding voice assistants and agentic integrations in the car.
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Alphabet Earnings, Netflix Earnings, Spotify Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Alphabet Earnings
Netflix Earnings
Spotify Earnings
Last week, we went over Meta’s CY1Q26 earnings. We will continue our 1Q26 tech earnings reviews with Alphabet, Netflix, and Spotify. While all three companies compete with Apple in some fashion, Spotify and Netflix are more direct in their Apple attacks.
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Berkshire Hathaway Will Embrace Tech
As expected, social media is ablaze with Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 13F filing, the first to be released with Greg Abel as CEO. The various buy and sell decisions overseen by Warren Buffett’s successor were always going to be put under a microscope as the market debates Abel’s skill as a stock picker. The 13F wasn’t short of drama. When examining Abel’s background, strengths, and weaknesses, as well as Berkshire’s standing, a picture of how Berkshire Hathaway will look post-Buffett is starting to come into focus. The company is likely in for dramatic changes, and Silicon Valley will play a role.
During his first three months as CEO, Abel worked quickly to put his touch on Berkshire’s equity portfolio. As detailed in Berkshire’s latest 13F, Abel reduced the number of companies comprising Berkshire’s equity portfolio by 30%. Most of the positions sold appear to have been purchased by Todd Combs over the years. Combs had initially been groomed to be Buffett’s protégé. Those plans shifted with Combs recently leaving Berkshire to run a special investment fund for Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan. Berkshire also announced new stakes in Macy’s and Delta, names in industries that Buffett has famously talked down in the past. The big move was Berkshire tripling its stake in Alphabet to what is now a $23 billion position at its current stock price.
For a company that famously “didn’t get” technology, approximately 30% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio is once again tech, represented by two companies: Apple and Google. This percentage had been higher prior to Buffett slashing Berkshire’s Apple stake. However, Apple had always been thought of as different than a tech pure play. When explaining the Apple purchase, Buffett would often comment on Apple’s uniqueness resembling more of a consumer staples company.
With Greg Abel as CEO, I expect to see two major changes at Berkshire Hathaway:
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Keep an Eye on Netflix and Spotify (Inside Orchard)
Both Netflix and Spotify deserve close monitoring. From Wall Street’s perspective, something is wrong with the companies. On a combined basis, Netflix’s and Spotify’s market caps have declined by 35% or $250 billion from peak levels. The move especially stands out relative to continued momentum that has flowed to Big Tech companies.
Wall Street trading behavior rarely tells the full story as the market is known to misprice business fundamentals. With that said, the broader stories surrounding Netflix’s and Spotify’s businesses do seem to have entered new chapters. At a time when Big Tech is seeing accelerated revenue growth, Netflix and Spotify are experiencing slowing revenue growth. Netflix management forecasts 13% revenue growth in 2026, down from 16% in 2024 and 2025. Excluding FX, Spotify revenue growth has declined from 20% to 15% over the past two years. For services companies generating nearly all their revenue from recurring streams, slowing revenue growth shouldn’t be brushed aside. To put those growth rates into perspective, Apple will report nearly 7x more revenue in 2026 compared to Netflix and Spotify on a combined basis while reporting stronger revenue growth (17%).
A major driver behind Netflix’s and Spotify’s slowing revenue growth is maturing paid subscriber growth. Netflix’s paid subscriber growth (net basis) was nearly cut in half from 42 million in 2024 to approximately 25 million in 2025. Spotify’s paid subscriber growth (net basis) has fared better, remaining relatively steady between 25 million and 30 million annually. However, given Spotify’s ballooning free user tally and
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Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Essays. The cornerstone of an Inside Orchard subscription is access to Neil’s essays on the latest developments in the technology industry. Weekly essays are ~1,000 words and sent via email. Essays revolve around the following topics: technology industry analysis, business model analysis, technology’s impact on societal and consumer trends. Create a free profile to read a few sample essays.
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New Media’s Authenticity Problem (Inside Orchard)
Prior to OpenAI acquiring TBPN for approximately $100 million, there had been something about the podcasts, newsletters, and livecasts comprising new media that wasn’t sitting right with me. It increasingly felt like some of the prevailing assumptions underpinning new media’s growth over the past decade had been a mirage. There is now a side to new media that once seen, can’t be unseen, and it’s not pretty.
A decade ago, the new media space was the Wild West. I launched Inside Orchard’s sibling site, Above Avalon, in November 2014 at a time when “newsletter” was more likely to be associated with investment bulletins sent via postal mail. My business plan was focused on going direct to readers while playing in fertile ground between Wall Street firms publishing research for institutional clients and the Wall Street Journals and the New York Times of the world being too big to cover Apple’s inner workings. While there were plenty of “independent” websites and media publications at the time, the true one-person-does-it-all publication was in its infancy.
During this era, pros and cons found with new media were as follows:
Directness with readers / audience. Instead of writing for a large publication or website and having little to no visibility regarding who was consuming your work, freedom and power were found with building your own audience.
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