Apple’s AI Chief Steps Down, John Giannandrea’s Legacy at Apple, Apple Poaches Microsoft AI Executive
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple’s AI Chief Steps Down
John Giannandrea’s Legacy at Apple
Apple Poaches Microsoft AI Executive
Hello everyone. The Apple news flow remains in overdrive. A few hours ago, news broke that Alan Dye is stepping down from leading user interface design to oversee a new creative studio within Meta’s Reality Labs. We will tackle that development tomorrow.
Today’s update ended up taking two full days to write. I had no interest in rushing something out yesterday that didn’t fully capture my stance, especially about such a multifaceted topic. Let’s jump in.
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iPhone 17 Sales Momentum, A Smartphone Industry Observation, Apple’s 2025 Holiday Ad
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
iPhone 17 Sales Momentum
A Smartphone Industry Observation
Apple’s 2025 Holiday Ad
We begin with Neil’s thoughts on the latest iPhone estimates from Counterpoint. The discussion then turns to one of Neil’s observations regarding what is unfolding in the broader smartphone industry. We conclude with some comments on Apple’s new 2025 holiday ad featuring puppets.
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Disney Earnings, Alphabet Earnings, Amazon Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Disney Earnings
Alphabet Earnings
Amazon Earnings
This update will cover Disney, Alphabet, and Amazon CY3Q25 earnings. Instead of losing ourselves in the weeds from a numbers perspective, the discussion will include both qualitative and quantitative takeaways.
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Netflix Earnings, Netflix Bids for Warner Bros. Discovery, Most Likely Outcome for Warner Bros. Discovery
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Netflix Earnings
Netflix Bids for Warner Bros. Discovery
Most Likely Outcome for Warner Bros. Discovery
We begin today’s update by analyzing Netflix’s 3Q25 earnings and earnings call. The discussion then turns to the Warner Bros. Discovery sales process. By acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery, Netflix would face two concerns. The update then concludes with how Neil sees the Warner Bros. Discovery sales process playing itself out.
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MLB’s New Media Rights, Tesla Planning CarPlay Support, More on Meta’s Business Model
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
MLB’s New Media Rights
Tesla Planning CarPlay Support
More on Meta’s Business Model
We wrap up a busy week with two news stories that jumped out at me. The update begins with a closer look at MLB (U.S. baseball) signing a new media rights deal. Our focus then turns to reportedly big news on the CarPlay front as Elon Musk is looking to eventual support CarPlay in Tesla vehicles. The third story ties up a few loose ends regarding our Meta discussion from yesterday.
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Meta 3Q25 Earnings, Did Zuckerberg “Kitchen Sink” Capex Expectations?, The Big Picture
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Meta 3Q25 Earnings
Did Zuckerberg “Kitchen Sink” Capex Expectations?
The Big Picture
We kick things off by going over the main takeaways from Meta’s earnings report. The discussion then turns to why Neil thinks Mark Zuckerberg may have “kitchen sinked” capex expectations this time around. We conclude with some big picture thoughts on where Meta finds itself in both AI mania and the broader Big Tech landscape.
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Give Siri Some Space, Please (AVALON Podcast Episode)
In the 24th episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
Revisiting more personal Siri (what happened, where things stand, what's next).
Bloomberg's report regarding Apple white labeling Gemini for Siri
Private Cloud Compute.
How Apple is playing the long (AI) game with its device/OS/app ecosystem.
Why I'm skeptical of ChatGPT providing utility for the mass market.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Apple unveils iPhone Pocket.
Apple leans into pro-human Apple TV intro theme.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
My TI-83 Plus fiasco (Amazon headaches).
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
Derek Thompson’s “The Monks in the Casino” article, and his theory that young people are more risk averse in the physical world yet more risk-seeking in the digital world.
Listen to the first four minutes of the episode below:
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More on Apple CEO Succession, Defining the Apple CEO Role, What Apple Should Do
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
More on Apple CEO Succession
Defining the Apple CEO Role
What Apple Should Do
Hello everyone. Today’s update will continue our discussion regarding Apple CEO succession, including what I think Apple should do over the next few years. The first half of the discussion can be found here.
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Apple Intensifying CEO Succession Planning, My Initial Thoughts on How Things Play Out
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Intensifying CEO Succession Planning
My Initial Thoughts on How Things Play Out
Hello everyone. This is going to be the first part of a two-part update dedicated to Apple CEO succession. The Financial Times is out with an important article on the topic. There’s much to discuss, including my thoughts on what may happen after Tim Cook steps down as CEO. Let’s jump right in.
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Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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Friday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Friday Q&A
Hello everyone. Here is a special Friday edition of Q&A. It’s been a while since we last did a Q&A. Based on the number of incoming questions, it’s probably a good idea to run an installment more often.
The update covered the following questions:
If the U.S. Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs to be illegal does that mean the tariff cost Apple reported is the only cost that goes away (or gets refunded depending on the ruling), or is Apple also paying non-IEEPA tariffs?
Do you think Apple’s share price will be affected by an overall bubble in AI tech shares bursting? (Or a balloon deflating!)
What does Apple think its stock is worth?
What is your opinion regarding the possibility of Apple acquiring Curiosity Stream or licensing their contents?
When is Apple releasing an updated Apple TV 4K unit?
Why didn’t Apple didn’t see the need for core technologies to power AI features back in 2022 (like many other big tech companies)? When Apple did see it, why didn’t they place a big bet on developing their own LLM rapidly (like other big tech companies) to become independent?
Are you concerned by the continued poaching of Apple employees by Jony Ive / OpenAI?
Did Apple make a mistake cancelling Project Titan?
An Above Avalon Daily subscription is required to read this daily update. Subscribers can read the update here.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership.
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Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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Apple Talks TV Strategy, No Apple TV Ad Tier (For Now), Estimating Apple TV Revenue
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Talks TV Strategy
No Apple TV Ad Tier (For Now)
Estimating Apple TV Revenue
Happy Thursday. Apple TV (Eddy Cue, Jamie Erlicht, Zack Van Amburg) was on the cover of Screen International’s November 2025 edition. This was the most informative interview to date in terms of Apple executives discussing Apple TV strategy. After going over key takeaways from the interview, we look specifically at Apple shooting down the suggestion that an ad tier is coming to Apple TV. We conclude with Neil’s estimates for the number of Apple TV subscribers, ARPU, and revenue, including five-year projections.
Tomorrow’s update will be a special Friday Q&A edition. This is an opportunity to submit questions that you would like answered in a daily update. Questions can be about anything, including topics not previously covered in the updates. To submit a question, just reply to this email. You can also post your question in the Above Avalon forum in Discord.
Note: If you submitted a question within the past week via email, I have them. There is no need to re-send.
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Apple Unveils iPhone Pocket, A Few Fun iPhone Pocket Observations, The Larger Story
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Unveils iPhone Pocket
A Few Fun iPhone Pocket Observations
The Larger Story
Hello everyone. Yesterday, Apple unveiled iPhone Pocket which is being positioned as a fashion accessory serving as an extra pocket for storing an iPhone, pair of AirPods etc. The product, developed via an Issey Miyake / Apple collaboration, grabbed a surprising amount of press on social media with quite a bit of the reaction tending down the path of mockery / amusement.
There are times when one can learn a surprising amount from the small things. iPhone Pocket feels like one of those “small things.” Accordingly, we are going to dedicate today’s update to talking about what may end up being the least expected product Apple will unveil in 2025. There are larger topics and trends that can be pulled from an accessory like iPhone Pocket being unveiled. Let’s jump in.
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Apple Reportedly to White Label Gemini for Siri, The Logic Behind Apple White Labeling Gemini, Apple’s (AI) Long Game
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Reportedly to White Label Gemini for Siri
The Logic Behind Apple White Labeling Gemini
Apple’s (AI) Long Game
Hello everyone.
The good news is that we wrapped up our Apple 4Q25 earnings review, leaving no (financial) stone unturned. If you missed any of the updates, you can check them out via the archive. We will now focus our attention on news and developments that occurred while we were focused on Apple earnings.
Today's update will take us into Siri land.
Let’s jump in.
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The Apple Ecosystem Is Humming Along (AVALON Podcast Episode)
In the 23rd episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
An inside look at how I model Apple financially and how I approach Apple earnings.
The two big takeaways from Apple's 4Q25 earnings.
Why Apple's HW results are improving.
How Apple's ecosystem is underpenetrated from a Services monetization.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Apple hits a $4 trillion market capitalization.
The Mac’s financial performance.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Online misinformation involving finance/stocks.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
Neo the home robot.
Listen to the first four minutes of the episode below:
Become a subscriber to continue listening to the 65-minute episode. Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “The Apple Ecosystem Is Humming Along” is in your podcast player.
Choose a monthly subscription or go with annual to save. (Charges can be expensed by your employer as the podcast is filled with analysis and research. If you need paid invoice receipts, go with the annual plan.)
Upon signup, you will receive a welcome email with directions for getting the podcast in your player. AVALON can be listened to in Apple Podcasts and various third-party podcast players including Pocket Casts, Overcast, and Castro.
If you currently subscribe to the Above Avalon Daily newsletter (great choice), with the Podcasts Package attached to your subscription, you get the AVALON podcast for FREE. This is one of the best deals available in the Above Avalon ecosystem.
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TV Is Becoming Messy Again (AVALON Podcast Episode)
In the 22nd episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
Apple and Formula 1.
Apple's sports play.
Apple TV+ rebranding.
Criticism found with Apple's TV effort.
The broader paid video streaming market is becoming messy
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
iPhone Air production cut rumors.
Tim Cook’s crazy travel schedule continues.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
Google’s hostility towards Apple Vision Pro (regarding YouTube).
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
JPMorgan Chase’s new HQ in NYC.
Listen to the first four minutes of the episode below:
Become a subscriber to continue listening to the 69-minute episode. Already an AVALON subscriber? The episode “TV Is Becoming Messy Again” is in your podcast player.
Choose a monthly subscription or go with annual to save. (Charges can be expensed by your employer as the podcast is filled with analysis and research. If you need paid invoice receipts, go with the annual plan.)
Upon signup, you will receive a welcome email with directions for getting the podcast in your player. AVALON can be listened to in Apple Podcasts and various third-party podcast players including Pocket Casts, Overcast, and Castro.
If you currently subscribe to the Above Avalon Daily newsletter (great choice), with the Podcasts Package attached to your subscription, you get the AVALON podcast for FREE. This is one of the best deals available in the Above Avalon ecosystem.
If you subscribe to Above Avalon Daily without the Podcasts Package, no worries - you still receive a large 40% discount. Pay just an extra $6 per month (or $60 per year) for AVALON by filling out this form.
My Notes from Apple’s 2025 10-K
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
My Notes from Apple’s 2025 10-K
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 4Q25 earnings review. We will go over Apple’s 10-K filing for 2025. There are a few remaining topics, such as share buyback and free cash flow, that we will also cover.
Published at the end of the fiscal year (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), 10-K filings include a more in-depth examination into Apple’s financials and business versus the 10-Q filings published at the end of 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q. Said another way, 10-Ks are a treasure trove of granular financial data.
An Above Avalon Daily subscription is required to read this daily update. Subscribers can read the update here.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q25 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Happy Wednesday everyone.
For today’s update, we will continue our Apple 4Q25 earnings review with the latest installment of Reading Between the Lines. This will be a substantial update which explains why it is being published a day later than expected. Instead of splitting it up into two or even three updates, it is being kept together in one large update. We will conclude the week tomorrow (Thursday) with a 10-K examination which will raise a few related financial topics.
After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call with the 16th installment of Reading Between the Lines of Apple's earnings Q&A with analysts.
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Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
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It’s an M5 Kind of Week (AVALON Podcast Episode)
In the 21st episode of the AVALON podcast, Neil discussed the following topics/subjects:
What's on the Agenda (the bulk of the discussion modeled after Apple’s Monday morning meetings)
Apple's M5 chip.
Apple's silicon advantage.
Apple Vision Pro (M5).
Why does Apple Vision Pro exist?
iPad Pro (M5).
MacBook Pro (M5) and Apple's attempt to juice upgrading.
Lighting Round (two topics two minutes each)
Apple wins Formula 1.
Live games coming to Apple Immersive Video.
Give Me a Break (something ridiculous that jumped out at me)
X’s spin regarding its war against outbound links.
Tell Me More (something intriguing that has my attention)
Apple’s new Mac ad campaign.
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Apple Device Upgrading Is Improving, Apple’s Underpenetrated Services Business
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Device Upgrading Is Improving
Apple’s Underpenetrated Services Business
Happy Monday. This past Friday’s update included my initial thoughts on Apple’s strong earnings and how my numbers compared to Apple’s results.
The following snippet was from Friday’s update:
“Apple’s financials are now showing the impact from management doubling down on its ecosystem via:
More frequent and substantial product updates (thanks in big part to Apple silicon). One way of getting existing users to [up]grade is launch new and exciting product updates that add genuine value to people’s workflows and lives.
Greater awareness on management’s part that Apple’s ecosystem is severely under-penetrated from a Services monetization standpoint. Apple’s AI strategy is flying under the radar with the company well-positioned to leverage its role as distributor of AI-infused apps and services to an ecosystem of 1.5B+ premium users.”
There’s much to unpack from that snippet regarding two of the major takeaways from Apple’s earnings: Improving Apple device upgrading trends and Apple's Services growth potential.
Let's jump right in.
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My Initial Reaction to Apple’s Strong 4Q25 Earnings, How Apple’s Results Compared to My Estimates
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
My Initial Reaction to Apple’s Strong 4Q25 Earnings
How Apple’s Results Compared to My Estimates
Hello everyone. Welcome to a special Halloween edition of the Above Avalon Daily. While there may be some scary displays this evening trick-or-treating, Apple’s earnings release and call were the opposite of frightening. Let’s discuss. Today’s update will begin our Apple earnings review.
We will kick things off with my initial reaction to earnings. The second half of the update will go over the key numbers.
An Above Avalon Daily subscription is required to read this daily update. Subscribers can read the update here.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership.
Choose either a monthly or annual subscription. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and subscription status at any time.
Subscriber Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive the Above Avalon Daily newsletter, widely-recognized as the leading daily newsletter dedicated to Apple. Now in its tenth year.
Archive Access. Access previous updates sent to members in an easy-to-navigate archive built in Ghost.
Full Access to Above Avalon Forum. Access exclusive channels in the Above Avalon forum in Discord.
Email Access to Neil Cybart. Receive timely responses from Neil to email inquiries.
Access Bundle Discounts. Customize a subscription with additional Above Avalon products and save: AVALON, Podcasts Packages, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource. Above Avalon is 100% funded by subscribers.