Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s 3Q25 Earnings Release
Hello everyone. Apple reports earnings on Thursday. For today's update, we will begin to prepare for the earnings release.
Thoughts Heading Into Apple’s 3Q25 Earnings Release
As we will discuss in greater detail tomorrow, Apple’s 3Q25 results should be relatively fine. Revenue growth will likely be close to 2Q25 levels while margins may get dinged a little bit by tariffs. And yet, the numbers themselves probably won’t matter a whole lot. Instead, Apple finds itself stuck in mud on Wall Street. A growing list of headwinds have contributed to Apple shares experiencing some of their worst underperformance relative to peers and the market in recent memory.
While every other Big Tech company has moved notably higher from the tariff-induced lows of early April, Apple has barely participated.
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Previewing Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings, My Apple 4Q22 Estimates, Apple Raises Apple Music and Apple TV+ Pricing (Daily Update)
Happy Tuesday.
We will go over my updated Apple earnings model tomorrow. It's not quite ready for publication. As a reminder, with Apple reporting earnings on Thursday, here is the daily update schedule for the rest of the week:
Wednesday: Regular update
Thursday: No update
Friday: Special Friday update dedicated to reviewing Apple earnings
Previewing Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings
My expectation is for Apple to report OK results on Thursday. While FX, inflation, and ongoing supply chain issues will negatively impact numbers, Apple should be able to comfortably exceed the all-time FY4Q revenue record ($83B is the current record).
FY4Q presents a few challenges for Apple financial modeling and earnings analysis as results reflect demand and supply trends 1) leading up to the critical September product launches and 2) a portion of the product launches themselves. For Apple, those two periods can end up representing distinct demand environments.
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