The Next Marginal Customer

Being a niche player has led Apple to much success, as resources are funneled into the most profitable and lucrative segments of a market. However, this doesn't mean that Apple isn't focused on new customer acquisition. I suspect some of Apple's recent troubles with software quality over the past two years has been related to tradeoffs created by acquiring the next marginal customer.

Apple is a growth company. Accordingly, marketing takes on a more vital role at Apple than at a mature company where user acquisition is not a primary goal. Apple relies on marketing (and design) in an attempt to appeal to the marginal customer, the next user to buy into the Apple ecosystem. This drive leads to new and exciting software features shown in retail stores and in marketing campaigns. However, because of the tight schedule Apple has adhered to, as well as the sheer volume of change taking place, features are not receiving the needed attention. In this context, core users (the ones likely to use all of these new and exciting features) feel the downside, and become increasingly vocal with their complaints, while new users largely avoid much of the frustration. This dynamic may help explain how management is insulated a bit from some of the backsplash as financial trends depict no major issues. Former early Apple employee Bruce Tognazzini similarly discussed how Apple's user interface also suffers from management's focus on new users at the determent of power users.

What's the solution? Time. Apple's approach to new customer acquisition is correct. Apple knows its next marginal customer very well. Instead, I suspect as we move past the Apple Watch launch, and the first few quarters of sales, Apple will be in a better position to address some of the recent software shortcomings. Apple would then have marketable features that new customers would enjoy, while still appealing to core users with reliable functionality. How can the two groups be satisfied with the same product or feature? Design. This is where Jony Ive's leadership and vision will need to be utilized. I hear some say, "if it just worked, it would be great," referring to Apple software, which tells me Apple is on the right track in terms of design implementation. 

For Apple, the ability to shift directions and funnel resources into a new product is one of the most misunderstood and undervalued aspects of the company. In this context, Apple Watch, and all that remains untold and misunderstood about the device, and Apple's move into personalized hardware, may play a crucial role in understanding what Apple has been planning with its unrealistic pace of development in recent years. The game may have changed, but I suspect Apple wrote the new playbook, and has been away practicing. With the company nearly ready to return, with Apple Watch in tow, the question is will early adopters show up for the game? I suspect the answer may surprise some Apple critics. 

1,000

Today's AAPL Orchard daily email went out to 1,002 subscribers. If there is a number worthy of its own post and reflection, I suspect 1,000 would be at the front of the line. My goal in writing AAPL Orchard is to provide a layer of context that sits on top of the Apple news and rumor world.  While I have been quite surprised at how quickly the email has grown, the much bigger success measure has been the diversity found in the subscriber base. Not only do I have substantial representation from Wall Street and academia, but a growing number from the music and film industries, a solid representation from biomedical and mechanical engineering fields, and of course there are those in the technology sector (app developers, investors, VCs, executives, and journalists). Maybe most exciting to me is how despite many people having careers, hobbies, and lifestyles in fields completely unrelated to technology, everyone shares a commonality in wanting to both stay informed and to learn about Apple. It is that drive and demand for useful Apple information that represents the core of AAPL Orchard. 

While I have crafted a particular process to scan and monitor many different content venues throughout the day, I am currently working on building up my ability to find interesting Apple-related content on smaller, independent sites or blogs. Readers have been submitting links/posts, and if you have something that would be enjoyed by AAPL Orchard readers, please keep me in mind. You can submit your story/link via Above Avalon or reply to any of the daily emails. For more information and to subscribe to AAPL Orchard, click here.

I'm excited to see AAPL Orchard grow and look forward to the future.  

- Neil 

 

 

 

Apple Watch's Potential Impact on Apple Earnings

While speculation as to how well the Apple Watch will sell is kicking into high gear, I wanted to frame the discussion a bit differently by publishing EPS matrices covering approximately 50 different Apple Watch sales scenarios. While the definition of success is largely subjective, and mostly dependent on how Apple frames the Apple Watch story, the device's impact on Apple's financial picture, given a set of parameters, is less open to debate. 

The easiest way to read a matrix is to start at one axis (margin or average selling price), and then move down the column, or across the row, until aligned with the alternative metric (margin or ASP).  For example, if I wanted to see the EPS impact from Apple selling 10M Apple Watch units at $550 ASP and 40% margin, I would start at the 40% margin column in Exhibit 1 and then move down until I reach the $550 row, leading to $0.28 of EPS.  

Exhibit 1: Sample EPS Matrix

In Exhibit 2, the first set of matrices depict Apple Watch's impact on EPS assuming 10 million units are sold in the first 12 months. Depending on average selling price (ASP) and margin, Apple Watch would contribute $0.17 to $0.58 of EPS (add 2% to 7% to 2015 EPS).

 

Exhibit 2: EPS Matrices for 10 Million Apple Watch Units

In Exhibit 3, the second set of matrices depict Apple Watch's impact on EPS assuming 25 million units are sold in the first 12 months. Depending on ASP and margin, Apple Watch would contribute $0.44 to $1.45 of EPS (add 5% to 17% to 2015 EPS).

 

Exhibit 3: EPS Matrices for 25 Million Apple Watch Units

In Exhibit 4, the third set of matrices depict Apple Watch's impact on AAPL EPS assuming 40 million units are sold. Depending on ASP and margin, Apple Watch would contribute $0.70 to $2.23 of EPS (add 8% to 28% to 2015 EPS).

 

Exhibit 4: EPS Matrices for 40 Million Apple Watch Units 

The easiest way to interpret these matrices is that at sales of 10M, Apple Watch's overall impact on AAPL EPS will be relatively modest (approximately 4% of 2015 EPS.) At 25M, Apple Watch would represent around 10% of 2015 EPS, still modest and easily overshadowed by iPhone sales fluctuations. If Apple shipped 35-40M Apple Watches, the impact on EPS becomes more sizable, potentially reaching 15-20% of overall EPS. 

These matrices also make it easier to convert consensus Apple Watch unit sales into an estimated level of EPS "built" into consensus EPS.  If consensus is around 20-25M Apple Watches sold in the first year (I'm at 20-30M), then that implies analysts have around $0.70-$0.90 of Apple Watch EPS built into consensus EPS estimates. If Apple were to ship 40M Apple Watches instead of 25M, this would lead to Apple Watch EPS of around $1.20-$1.30, $0.40-$0.50 higher than consensus. Vice versa, if Apple Watch sales are weaker than 20-25M and instead closer to 10M, then this would imply EPS is overstated by about $0.40/share.

Over the coming weeks as the debate regarding how many Apple Watches Apple could sell continues, I will be relying on these matrices to help frame how various sales scenarios will impact Apple. 

For this exercise, 2015E EPS represents Above Avalon's FY3Q15 - FY2Q16 EPS to match the probable first 12 months of Apple Watch sales, and EPS figures are after-tax (assuming a 25% tax rate). I view R&D and SG&A costs as sunk costs in this report. I also include continued share buyback through 2015 to obtain shares outstanding estimates. This report was produced by Neil Cybart on January 5, 2015 and is not meant to be used as investment advice. I publish a daily email about Apple called AAPL Orchard.

Apple Questions for 2015

In recognition of the beginning of a new year, I want to share my running list of questions that I have been keeping for Apple in 2015. By no means is this an exhaustive list, but rather things that I know to be on the lookout for.   

Apple Watch

  • Actual Usage. I'm most interested in seeing the device in use, and not just by initial reviewers. Will people be attracted to any particular feature? Will families buy a few Apple Watches at once for communication purposes? Will teenagers want to wear the device as a status symbol? Will athletes find the device appealing? How strong will word of mouth be? 
  • Health Sensors. There have been consistent rumors that Apple has a bit more to show off in terms of health and Apple Watch. What does Apple have left to unveil about Apple Watch 1.0 and health tracking, and will medical professionals be interested in the device?
  • Pricing. What will be Apple Watch and Apple Watch Edition collections (the middle and upper tier) pricing, as those remaining data points will help estimate overall Apple Watch sales mix and average selling price (ASP). How much would individual watch bands cost?
  • Unit Sales. Will Apple release Apple Watch unit sales? Management is planning on lumping Apple Watch financials into "other products" for earnings, but there is still a possibility Apple will announce opening weekend sales or even quarterly sales figures, just not revenue numbers. Apple Watch unit sales estimates currently range from 10M to 40M in the first 12 months, which is the difference between selling like an Apple TV (a few million a quarter) and iPad (10M+ a quarter). 
  • Sales Channel. Will Apple utilize new department store retailers, such as Macy's and Bloomingdale's, to sell Apple Watches next to traditional luxury watches? Apple would be able to reach a brand new target market with such a development. 
  • Apps. Will independent developers support Apple Watch? What will WWDC 2015 look like in terms of WatchKit? 

iPhone

  • ASP and Margins. I'm much more interested in iPhone's ASP and margin in 2015. The addition of a more expensive iPhone, along with reconfigured storage capacities, means that iPhone ASP may see a relatively substantial change compared to previous years while margins have room to expand. 
  • 4-Inch iPhone Mini. A new 4-inch iPhone model may be one of the more interesting iPhone rumors in 2015. I suspect there is indeed 15-20% of the iPhone target market that may enjoy the old iPhone 4-inch display form factor, and 15-20% of a big number is a big number. 
  • iPhone 6s. It seems like a better screen, camera, and processor are the leading candidates for selling points for new iPhones in 2015. I generally like the idea of using the "S" refresh years to introduce practical and functional internal upgrades as well as cosmetic changes to the outside in terms of color and finish. Will Apple update the external color and finish beyond silver, gold, and space grey?
  • iOS 9. Along with WatchKit, it is assumed Apple will announce new features for iOS at WWDC 2015. What will be the primary selling features of iOS 9? At this point the list of leading candidates is comprised of wanted features that did not make it in iOS 8.  

iPad

  • ASP. Similar to my thoughts on the iPhone, I'm much more interested in looking at iPad's ASP trying to decode how the iPad Air is selling versus the iPad mini as that will help shed some light on how much the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are cannibalizing iPad. Stronger iPad Air sales and weaker iPad mini sales (shown by a higher overall iPad ASP) would support the thesis that iPad is similar to Mac with a longer refresh cycle. Sales trends would track accordingly. 
  • iPad Pro. Will Apple introduce its rumored larger iPad model in the first half of 2015? Will it be geared towards specialized use cases in order to differentiate the iPad from iPhone 6 and 6 Plus? Will the device accompany any change to the way Apple thinks of iOS and iPad?
  • iPad Mini. Will Apple stop selling the iPad mini given that the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus may be reducing the demand for such a device?

Apple Pay

  • MCX. Will there be any signs that fringe members of the Merchant Customer Exchange (MCX) consortium have changed their mind and are now interested in supporting Apple Pay?
  • International Rollout. How fast will Apple Pay be rolled out to new markets?
  • Loyalty/Reward Cards. Will we see loyalty/reward cards, possibly related to Passbook, be incorporated into Apple Pay in some fashion as a means of getting more retailers to support Apple Pay?
  • Disclosures. Will Apple Pay retailers use the opportunity to publicize how Apple Pay has impacted their businesses? 

Mac

  • 12-inch Retina Macbook. Will Apple ship a new Mac form factor that may eventually replace the Macbook Air? 

Beats

  • New Streaming Service. Obvious questions would focus on price, geographical boundaries for the service, and differences from current offerings in the marketplace.
  • Branding. How will Apple handle the Beats brand, including both the streaming service and hardware?
  • Jimmy Iovine. Does Iovine's role within Apple extend beyond just music? 

Retail

  • Angela Ahrendts. What changes does Ahrendts have in mind for Apple retail stores, as well as third-party retailers, including how the Apple Watch will be sold? One can argue it is time for the Apple retail store concept to be rethought to better reflect Apple's product line and current customer base.

Apple TV

  • Apple TV Box. Will Apple update the Apple TV box with a newer processor?

Financials

  • Share Buyback Pace.  Instead of wondering if Apple will increase its share buyback authorization in 2015, a more appropriate question would be to ask if there will be any significant change in pace in share buyback in FY2015 from FY2014 ($45B)? 
  • Dividends. Tim Cook has mentioned cash dividends will be increased on an annual basis, but by how much?
  • Debt. Instead of wondering if Apple will issue debt, I think a better question is how much debt will Apple raise in 2015, especially if rates remain low?
  • M&A. Will Apple continue buying smaller, specialized companies in bolt-on acquisitions, or will a bigger opportunity present itself while still fitting into Apple's M&A criteria? 

Random Musings

  • Marc Newson. Is it a given that Newson is working part-time on future Apple Watch designs, or is he working on a different product?
  • Jeff Williams. Will Apple SVP Operations Jeff Williams get more press exposure in 2015?
  • Management Turnover. With the Apple Watch launch in the rearview mirror, will Apple experience any high-level management turnover in the second half of 2015?
  • Scott Forstall. He still may represent a wildcard as to what he has to say about the circumstances leading to his dismissal in 2012.  
  • iPod Touch: Apple is selling around 1-1.5 million iPod touch units per quarter. Will the device see one possible last major update in 2015?
  • Apple Pen.  I have no doubt that Apple has some type of smart pen/stylus in the labs, but I have more uncertainty in determining if the need for such a product (in conjunction with an "iPad Pro") is enough to receive one of Apple's rare "yes" decisions for going to market.  

I would classify the Apple news events that aren't reflected in any of these bullet points as the unexpected. Apple looks to have a busy year ahead. 

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Apple in 2014: Thinking Differently

Apple spent 2014 marching to a different beat than the rest of the tech industry. While others spent the year publicizing research and development efforts and M&A quests to find future business models, Apple spent the year doing what it knows best: thinking differently. Several Apple highlights in 2014 included: 

  • Rethinking the wristwatch, a product that has been around for over 100 years.
  • Rethinking how mobile payments can be made easier using the existing banking/payments infrastructure.
  • Investing in brick and mortar retail with a high profile (and expensive) retail hire despite everyone moving to E-commerce.
  • Funneling development efforts into Mac despite everything moving to mobile.
  • Investing in music by acquiring Beats in an attempt to regain mindshare and rethink music.
  • Listening to Wall Street and shareholders, while other tech companies have become more anti-shareholder in terms of voting structure and capital management.   

The expectations game was set quite high for Apple in 2014, with Tim Cook predicting in 2013 that Apple would have new products across 2014. Most of the year was also filled with anticipation of Apple’s entry into a new product category, which turned out to actually be two categories: watches and mobile payments. Eddy Cue added to the buzz by going on stage at Re/code in May to say that Apple’s upcoming product pipeline was the strongest in 25 years. While time will tell if Cue was right, it's not up for debate that the Apple machine was fully operational in 2014Yes, Apple still faces shortcomings in certain areas, and 2014 saw little in the way of improvement in those initiatives (I have my own theory on why this may be, but that is for another time), but Apple spent 2014 building a solid foundation for 2015 with updates across nearly the entire product line and new initiatives and products meant to skate where the puck will be, positioning Apple for the next phase of mobile. Apple spent 2014 thinking differently.