Apple Doesn't Sell Phones

In the eight years since Apple introduced the iPhone,  traditional business and industry analysis has failed miserably at predicting Apple's approach to technology. Ben Thompson, writing at Stratechery, articulated three reasons why tech observers misunderstand Apple. I think the heart of the issue was briefly touched upon by his third point dealing with Apple's stated goal of making great products. Apple has actually been playing a completely different game than everyone else for years. Apple has been successful at building iPhone momentum in the face of what seems to be insurmountable obstacles because Apple doesn't sell phones, but rather experiences. The best selling experience is called iPhone. 

Apple is a company built in such a way as to be a product-driven organization. When trying to define Apple's products, a somewhat savvy observer would answer: hardware, software, apps and services. In reality, Apple is selling much more than tangibles. The combination of those elements into one device creates emotion. Apple's primary products are experiences. From videotaping themselves unboxing new Apple products to vividly recalling the day they bought their first iPhone at an Apple store, people crave experiences, and Apple has been focused on selling such a product for years.  

An iPhone represents something different to each of the 400 million current users. For some, it is a remarkable symbol of design, while for others it embodies hard work and accomplishment. It may also just be a device used to take pictures and send Snaps on Snapchat. Regardless of what the device represents, the experience of using an iPhone on a daily basis for years creates a bond. It is that bond that Apple is focused on nurturing and maintaining over time. A bond that is so strong that 9 out of 10 iPhone buyers decide to buy another iPhone. A look at other companies selling handsets would show a completely different paradigm. Samsung is so removed from the consumer, management wasn't even aware that people weren't buying the latest flagship Galaxy phone until the mobile carriers complained of unsold inventory.

Once the iPhone is thought of as an experience and not a phone, the mobile industry begins to look very different, and much of the mystery surrounding Apple's decisions fade away. 

Competition. Apple's biggest competitor in the phone industry is the previous year's iPhone. The implications of this are significant, helping to frame why Apple never seems to follow industry protocol or respond directly to competitors. As an Apple competitor, this strategy is hard to counter because Apple is always one step ahead, as shown with Samsung's current lack of direction in mobile.

Two other examples of this strategy were Apple's AuthenTec acquisition and the decision to hold off on large screen iPhones. Apple turned fingerprint scanning from a gimmick feature into an enjoyable experience and competitors have so far been unable to find an answer. Meanwhile, Apple SVP of design Jony Ive's decision to hold off on larger screens for the iPhone was Apple's attempt at getting it right, instead of being first. Apple had plenty of experience with larger screens since the iPhone was born from the concept that eventually became the iPad. Jony Ive waited in order to make sure the experience was just right. Judging by Samsung's recent struggles, being the first to market a feature or idea, such as large screens, doesn't guarantee success. 

Since the previous iPhone represents the competition to beat, Apple doesn't get distracted by features on competing phones that amount to little more than smoke and mirrors, as seen with most of Samsung's features, and pretty much the entire Amazon Fire Phone feature list. 

Addressable Market. Following Apple's record 193 million iPhones sold in 2014, it would be easy to rely on smartphone shipment data to figure out iPhone's remaining addressable market in the premium Android space. In reality, that strategy is prone to error as it fails to describe how Apple views the landscape. Apple wants to sell experiences to as many people as possible. Take a look at Apple's renewed product strategy and it's clear that Apple isn't content on just selling these experiences to a certain segment of the population. Apple comes up with new products with the goal of appealing to all consumers, not specific tiers or layers of a market.

Price. Many consumers face price obstacles when wanting to buy an Apple experience. However, Apple has shown that roadblocks are meant to be overcome. Apple doesn't look at low prices as motivation to come up with an inferior experience, instead Apple positions the ultimate iPhone experience as an aspirational goal, while reducing the cost of older iPhones (which at their time were the best experiences on the market). By reducing older iPhone prices, Apple is able to accomplish the goal of selling a great experience at a lower cost, while keeping a different, newer experience as something to desire. Apple has also shown the ability to address price in different ways other than just selling older experiences at a lower price. Apple's iPad mini continues to sell relatively well, with very strong satisfaction rates, and has proved to be quite an attractive proposition for those who want to experience iOS for much less than the cost of an iPhone.

Apple Retail. In the context of selling experiences, Apple's retail plans take on a much more strategic importance and is the primary reason why I look at the retail stores as a key competitive advantage for Apple. A look at Apple's current retail push into China would suggest that management is focused on selling the iPhone experience, not just a merely a phone. Many people go to flagship Apple stores, which some have described as museums, just to visit and take in the environment, a rather remarkable feat when other retailers struggle to even get attention. 

Apple knows what kind of experiences it wants to sell years ahead of time. Features, components, and designs included in Apple's current product lineup are often included as groundwork for what is to come.  By recognizing that Apple's primary products are experiences, management's strategy in terms of pricing, marketing, and product direction begin to make more sense. Of course, selling experiences is much harder than selling hardware gadgets or software. Even Apple has failed to deliver a great experience from time to time. The key is to do less and concentrate all available resources on building few, but very meaningful, experiences. As long as Apple doesn't just sell a phone, the iPhone will see continued success. 

Luck or Vision

Following Apple's earnings release earlier this week, there seems to be a rather twisted and intellectually dishonest argument gaining steam that Apple is becoming a risker company simply because the iPhone is so successful. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi did a great job at summing up this prevailing attitude with the following quote given to The New York Times:

There’s always the risk of another paradigm shift. Who knows what that might be, but Apple is living and dying by the iPhone. It’s a great franchise until it isn’t.

According to Sacconaghi, it sure sounds like Apple is lucky that the iPhone has been so successful and Tim Cook should be concerned that his luck can run out overnight. Another paradigm shift may come along and make the iPhone irrelevant, with only Apple feeling the brunt of this shift. Sacconaghi has a $135 target price and Outperform rating for Apple, so his quote isn't so much a bad stock call turning into sour grapes. Instead, his comment symbolizes the confusion that exists in the marketplace concerning Apple.

Has Apple's successes over the past 15 years been due to sheer luck or effective vision? One way of answering this question is to analyze a company that was actually lucky: Blackberry. The company was able to take initial successes in mobile technology and turn it into a $83 billion market cap as little competition and unwavering enterprise support drove years of strong growth and success. However, a quick look at the product portfolio would tell a different story. Compare a Blackberry phone from 2004 with one from 2010 to see what luck looks like. Even after Apple introduced the iPhone and then eventually the App Store, Blackberry shrugged it off, showing little understanding of its market and customer base. Missing a feature here and there can be costly, but manageable. However, missing an entire era can be lethal. Blackberry's luck had run out. 

Meanwhile, compare the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus to the original iPhone. Apple's focus is on making great products with often the only limiting factors being of a technological nature. Every other year Apple has focused on not only changing the iPhone's form factor for the sake of change, but to improve the user experience. As screens have become bigger, battery life has gotten better, and devices have gotten thinner. Apple has then used the "S" cycle off years to introduce updated components to the iPhone, and in the case of iPhone 5S, new features like TouchID.  

Jony Ive, Apple SVP of design, back in October at a Vanity Fair event, discussed how Apple had iPhone prototypes that included large screens in an effort to see what would make the best product. In the end, design challenges pushed off large screens for a few years. Today Apple is shipping iPhones with larger screens and Apple continues to see 15-20% of iPhone buyers come from other smartphone platforms. Just as an Apple critic can claim Apple may have dragged their feet a year or two too long to introduce larger iPhones in response to competitors, the discussion can be quickly turned around to reflect how Apple added a fingerprint sensor to iPhone in 2013, a feature that was considered a gimmick up to that point. Apple has also been very successful in understanding its next marginal iPhone buyer and not shipping phones with features that over serve the market. If this type of forward-thinking is simply luck packaged in a pretty box, then most of Apple's peers wish Tim Cook would share some of that luck. 

Despite reporting a record quarter, Apple still has risk factors. Apple includes these risk factors in its 10-Q and 10-K filings. One risk factor in its 10-Q filed earlier this week seemed to apply to this luck versus vision discussion: 

The Company’s ability to compete successfully depends heavily on its ability to ensure a continuing and timely introduction of innovative new products and technologies to the marketplace. The Company believes it is unique in that it designs and develops nearly the entire solution for its products, including the hardware, operating system, numerous software applications and related services. As a result, the Company must make significant investments in R&D. The Company currently holds a significant number of patents and copyrights and has registered and/or has applied to register numerous patents, trademarks and service marks. In contrast, many of the Company’s competitors seek to compete primarily through aggressive pricing and very low cost structures, and emulating the Company’s products and infringing on its intellectual property. If the Company is unable to continue to develop and sell innovative new products with attractive margins or if competitors infringe on the Company’s intellectual property, the Company’s ability to maintain a competitive advantage could be adversely affected.

Management is pretty clear on why it thinks it has been successful. Not only does Apple simply ship new products every year, but Apple: 

  • designs hardware
  • develops operating systems
  • creates numerous software applications
  • introduces new services
  • invests in R&D
  • registers for patents and copyrights

Apple's biggest risk isn't that the iPhone makes up 60% of revenue, but rather failing in any of the preceding bullet points. Claiming that Apple is too dependent on iPhone implies that Apple got to where it is by luck. I don't think that is genuine criticism. Instead, Apple got to where it is today by executing on its vision. Failure to stand by that vision represents Apple's biggest risk factor.

Jeff Williams: Apple CEO Material

One thing became abundantly clear after analyzing Apple's recent earnings report: Jeff Williams is doing a phenomenal job. As senior vice president of Operations, Williams is tasked with making sure the Apple machine is well-oiled and in tip-top shape, not only capable of producing more than 100 million iOS devices in a quarter, but building flexibility into the system to handle annual hardware updates that would make most hardware companies quiver with fear. I considered Jeff Williams as Tim Cook's successor before Cook finished his first day as CEO, and I feel even more confident about that today. Regardless of what the future brings, people need to start watching Jeff Williams because he is executing at levels that few are able to achieve. 

A look at Jeff Williams' background would quickly bring up a comparsion to Tim Cook.  Both Williams and Cook earned an MBA from Duke, spent time working at IBM, and joined Apple in 1998. Cook was Apple's Chief Operating Officer (a position Apple never filled once Cook was promoted to CEO), while Williams was vice president of Operations, seeing a promotion to SVP after Antennagate. Fortune called Williams: "Tim Cook's Tim Cook."

Williams is in charge of Apple's immense supply chain and production process. More granular duties include overseeing Apple's relationships with suppliers, like Foxconn, and negotiating supplier contracts that are so large, the broader tech industry is often crippled as a result (HP TouchPad comes to mind). Williams also oversees product quality across the company. 

I don't think there are many people that would object to the notion that Jeff Williams is CEO material. From being able to work through problems to motivating others, there probably aren't many hardware companies that would pass up the opportunity to be led by Williams. Why is Jeff Williams Apple CEO material?

1) Values Collaboration. Apple is run by committee comprised of a small group of top Apple executives. This structure has been around for years, with the primary objective of fostering collaboration between groups and departments. If a new iPhone is to be announced in a few weeks, having the entire company (via SVPs) focused on that product can lead to better results. I view this type of structure as supportive of someone with Tim Cook's personality and management style; characteristics that Williams share. Listening to varying viewpoints and guiding direction, while focusing on more typical CEO-like duties, such as building company culture and representing the company to the public, would match a operations-minded individual focused on day-to-day operations much better than a product person thinking of the next big thing. 

2) Understands Products. Running Apple's operations leads to copious amounts of time with products and trying to think of ways to source, collect, and then assemble components into finished goods. To do this while maintaining excruciatingly difficult quality standards makes the job that much tougher. Products are very important to Apple and Williams is likely the most qualified candidate in this area. 

3) Embraces Details. One of the key differences between Apple and other companies is the degree to which executives are involved with the details at Apple. It reportedly was the reason Mark Papermaster's tenure was cut short at Apple, and most likely represents the biggest hurdle for outside talent embracing the Apple philosophy.  Having led worldwide operations for iPod and iPhone for years, Williams is well-trained and accustomed to focusing on details, while not losing perceptive of the big picture. 

Judging by Apple's financials, as well as Apple's ability to attract top hires from various industries, Tim Cook is successfully leading Apple. Looking over the next 5-10 years, keen Apple observers can begin to see where Apple is headed, and there is no reason why anyone other than Tim Cook (and Jony Ive) will lead Apple in that direction. As a public company, good corporate governance would require Apple's board to have a CEO succession plan in place for obvious reasons. I suspect that Jeff Williams is indeed on that list. While the board would also look outside Apple, on behalf of shareholders, just to leave no stone unturned, I have low confidence that someone without a few years of Apple experience will see much success leading Apple. 

While there are literally thousands of people that contributed to Apple's very strong holiday quarter, Jeff Williams stood out as executing at the highest level for driving such strong unit production growth without sacrificing quality. With the Apple Watch launch approaching, I'm sure Williams will continue to play a key role in overseeing the process of turning a collection of components into a finished product . Williams' stock is on the rise inside Apple.

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Apple's Record Earnings

Apple was firing on all cylinders last quarter, reporting: 

  • 74M iPhones 
  • 21M iPads
  • 5.5M Macs 
  • $75B of total revenue
  • $24B of operating income
  • 500M visitors to Apple retail stores (physical and online)

Listening to management's earnings conference call, two questions stood out. One was what many analysts were thinking: "How is it possible that a company can report such strong numbers?" The other was one that a few asked Tim Cook: "Is this sustainable?" The second question on sustainability is maybe the most important question to ask, not only for the stock, but for Apple and the iOS ecosystem. Are we at some type of peak or is this a new era at Apple? I contemplated these questions for a few hours last night. I ended up looking at Apple's product philosophy for the answer. 

How Is This Possible?

Jony Ive, SVP of Design at Apple, gave a talk at the Vanity Fair New Establishment Summit in San Francisco this past October. It was a wide-ranging discussion (and I highly recommend taking a look). The question of why Apple moved back to curved edges for larger iPhones was brought up. Here was Jony's response:

Many years ago, we made prototypes of phones with bigger screens. We made notebooks with bigger screens; it was a concept that we were familiar with. There were interesting features having a bigger screen, but the end result was a really lousy product because they were big and clunky like lots of the competitive phones are still…And we thought there is a danger you are seduced by a feature at the expense of making a great product. And so years ago we realized well this is going to be important that we have larger screens, but we needed to do a lot of things to make that larger screen yield a really competitive product.

It was very important to making [a phone with bigger screen] comfortable and actually feeling less wide than in reality it was.

Instead of shipping an iPhone with a large screen years ago just to be the first to cross an item off the feature list, Apple took a type of tick-tock approach with incremental step ups in screen size every two years, holding off on the 4.7-inch and larger screens until late 2014. The decision to wait paid off as Apple not only beat 1Q15 consensus on record iPhone sales, but reported the highest level of quarterly operating income in corporate history. The combination of pent-up demand for bigger iPhones and Apple's supply chain prowess, led to 75M iPhones being sold (up 46% year/year), well above expectations of close to 65M units, and even my 69M estimate. Heading into the quarter, the primary risk to the iPhone number was inadequate supply. Instead, having the best supply chain in the industry, under the leadership of Jeff Williams, allowed Apple to increase iPhone production to such a level as to sell the device in 130 countries within three months of launch.

The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are increasingly looking like game changers in the smartphone industry, an industry that some declared set in stone with the iPhone destined to the top 10-15% share. iPhone unit sale growth was up 44% in the U.S. last quarter, with even stronger growth elsewhere, including 100% growth in China, Brazil, and Singapore. Countries where critics thought the iPhone would do poorly are ending up representing very attractive opportunities for Apple.

Is This Sustainable?

The iPhone is now supported by 375 carriers, representing 72% of the mobile phone subscriber base. In a rather remarkable display of Apple's growing size and power, it would likely require an additional 10M iPhones just to get iPhone channel inventory within the 5-7 week target range set by management. Tim Cook mentioned that the Android switcher rate is the highest it has been in the three previous years (likely around 15-20%) and the number of customers new to iPhone is greater with iPhone 6 and 6 Plus than any other iPhone launch. These data points serve to frame the heart of the argument surrounding iPhone sales sustainability. Having 20% of iPhone buyers come from competing platforms may be the most important figure to be taken out of Apple's earnings conference call. The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus remove the biggest feature difference that had developed in the phone market: screen size. Looking ahead, Apple will target the 100s of millions of consumers that bought Android smartphones over the past few years and will soon be looking for a new smartphone. Tim Cook also disclosed that approximately 10-15% of the iPhone user base upgraded to iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, implying the iPhone user base stands at 400-420M. Considering the average iPhone user holds onto their phones for 2-3 years, Apple expects continued momentum from iPhone upgrades through 2015. 

1Q15 Highlights

Apple reported record revenues of $75 billion, up 30% from 1Q14, which is remarkable on a number of fronts, including the large revenue base Apple had to work off from, the overall global economic picture where any growth is considered good growth, and FX trends that have weighed on results from other multinational companies. With the Apple Watch launching in April (3Q15), Apple is on track to report 25% revenue growth for full-year 2015.

Apple's gross margin, once considered the most important piece of the puzzle to AAPL investors, continues to move higher as the iPhone makes up a larger portion of the overall business. 
Apple's current operating margin is approximately 41%, excluding FX impact, up from a low of 37% in 2012. Not only is Apple growing revenue by 30%, but margins are moving higher. 

Management's 2Q15 guidance looks strong with revenue of $52-$55B ($55.8B expectation) and gross margins of 38.5%-39.5% (39.4% expectation), despite a 500 basis point impact on revenue and 100 basis point impact on margin from FX movements. The Chinese New Year will likely bring continued momentum for Apple product sales in 2Q15.  

Exhibit 1 includes all of the major line items from Apple's income statement, compared to 1Q14 results and Above Avalon's expectations. Interestingly, research and development expense continues to remain elevated, rising 43% year-over-year to $1.9B last quarter. 

Exhibit 1: Apple 1Q15 Results Compared to 1Q14 and Above Avalon Expectations

Exhibit 2 highlights Apple's product sales in 1Q15 versus 1Q14 and Above Avalon's expectations. Strong iPhone unit sales and ASP (thanks to the iPhone 6 Plus and reconfigured storage tiers) more than offset weakness in iPad and relatively in-line Mac results. 

Exhibit 2: Apple 1Q15 Results Compared to 1Q14 and Above Avalon Expectations

Additional Themes

iPad Is Finding It's Purpose. Tim Cook essentially gave guidance for the iPad in 2015 by saying he did not expect much change in iPad sales momentum. During the quarter, the company shipped 21.4M iPads, beating my 19.5M estimate, but down from 26.0M last year. iPad continues to find its proper role within the Apple ecosystem. Tim Cook announced 12 additional MobileFirst iOS apps related to the IBM partnership will be released this quarter, which will go along with the 10 apps recently released. Apple is increasingly positioning enterprise as a key market for iPad, which makes a rumored iPad Pro geared towards content creators that much more interesting. First-time buyer rates for iPad remain high with upwards of 50% of iPad sales going to new customers, including a 70% first-time buyer rate in China. iPad ASP continued to decline suggesting that the iPad mini is replacing the iPod touch as the popular entry-level price iOS device. Overall, there wasn't much in the iPad results to suggest any significant changes in my expectations. 

All Eyes Are on China. In what may be the clearest signal of Apple's bullishness on China, Tim Cook mentioned Apple will have 40 stores in China by mid-2016, implying 50% store count growth in a little over a year. We are already seeing the beginning roll-out of this renewed retail focus in China with new stores in Hangzhou and Chongqing. In terms of the Apple online store (now over 350 cities), online revenues in China last quarter were more than the sum of the previous five years. Apple's recent high-profile hires from Burberry (Angela Ahrendts and Chester Chipperfield) would certainly make sense if considering China's importance to Apple and considering Burberry is in the midst of a similar retail expansion program in China. 

Jeff Williams Performing at Highest Level. Apple's SVP of Operations Jeff Williams continues to position himself to be Tim Cook's successor as Apple CEO. While I don't expect any change at the top for many years, Williams is only 50 years old (Cook is 53 years old), and quarterly results like the one Apple just reported show that Williams is executing at the highest levels imaginable. 

Apple's Retail Weapon. It is rather remarkable how Apple is doubling down on its retail efforts (including physical stores), while peers are either scaling back or staying out of the mix. Apple's investments in its retail operations (447 total stores, 182 of which are outside the U.S.) may be one of the most important bets the company has taken over the past 15 years. Looking ahead at the upcoming Apple Watch, having hundreds of retail locations with trained staff represents a significant competitive advantage for Apple. 

Cash and Capital Management. Apple has $178 billion ($31/share) of cash and marketable securities, up $23 billion from last quarter. Apple currently has $33 billion of long-term debt and $4 billion of commercial paper (short-term debt). Management repurchased 53M shares last quarter for between $5-$6 billion (roughly in-line with expectations). Apple has approximately $16B of share buyback authorization remaining and will likely increase the buyback program, along with raising the quarterly cash dividend, in April.  

Valuation: Investors Searching for Earnings Sustainability. Apple is currently trading at a 16x trailing P/E and a 12x forward P/E. Obviously, such valuation metrics (as well as more granular metrics such as price/free cash flow) would suggest the shares are undervalued given the company's growth metrics, but that has been the case for years. It is much more important to focus on investor's comfort level around Apple's EPS growth and sustainability. Unfortunately, as a consequence of the industry it operates in, Apple's earnings and growth are looked at with more skepticism than peers growing at a much slower rate. Looking ahead, the Street seems to be expecting continued strong iPhone demand and a decent Apple Watch launch.  What will make investors feel more comfortable with earnings sustainability?  Diversification, additional service revenue, and more clarity on how Apple product users treat ecosystem paid upgrades, such as iCloud storage). In the meantime, management will likely continue to be in the market buying back AAPL shares. 

Looking Ahead

Apple is likely entering a new round of revenue growth on the heels of continued follow-through strength of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus in 2015, as well as the impact from Apple Watch revenue beginning in 3Q15, as shown in Exhibit 3.  

Exhibit 3: Apple TTM Revenue (Blue = Reported, Grey = Estimated)

Apple's decision to wait to sell iPhones with large screens until the product was ready will likely go down as a turning point for iPhone. Market share gains will help position the iOS ecosystem to benefit from new services such as Apple Pay, and eventually music streaming, video, health, home, car, and other endeavors. Management often reiterates that Apple is a product company. Record 1Q15 earnings demonstrated that commitment.

This report was produced by Neil Cybart on January 28, 2015 and is not meant to be used as investment advice. I publish a daily email about Apple called AAPL Orchard. Click here for more information and to subscribe.