Apple Is Building Its Largest Startup Ever

What was once discussed within certain technology circles is now in mainstream news. Apple is building a startup focused on designing an electric car. When compared to previous product initiatives, Apple is embarking on its most ambitious project in its history. In recent years, there has been much debate surrounding the factors that have contributed to Apple becoming the most valuable company in the world. There is growing evidence that Apple is confident it still has the keys to success. The startup team Apple is putting together and the corporate values that support such a team will determine Apple's ultimate success in the automobile industry. 

Project Titan

Apple wants to design a car and has formed its own startup to assemble a team of automotive and robotic experts. Apple's ambition with the automobile has been in the making for years, but only in recent months has Apple's outside hiring led many to conclude that development may be far more advanced than first thought. Unsurprisingly, most were skeptical of Apple designing its own car, especially if the untapped potential in the automative space was not clear. There continues to be many questions as to how Apple could position itself to come up with a new kind of experience on the road by designing the entire automobile. 

This past February, the WSJ gave the most detail about Apple's Project Titan project, reporting that Apple's automobile initiative had managerial hierarchy and structure. On September 21st, the WSJ revealed additional information about Project Titan, including news that it had progressed to the point of being given the green light with managers now having permission to expand the team to 1,800 people. Recent reports have pointed to Project Titan's headquarters being located in Apple-leased office space in nearby Sunnyvale, a short distance from Apple HQ in Cupertino.  

In recent months, there has been a running tally of employees believed to be working on Project Titan. Given that the team already includes hundreds of employees, the following list represents a small percentage of the total group. Nevertheless, a few trends become apparent.

  1. Project Titan is being led by long-time Apple managers dating back to the iPod development in the early 2000s.
  2. Apple already had numerous employees with automobile-related experience, including a few from the Industrial Design group. 
  3. Apple has poached employees from a range of automobile manufacturers including Tesla, Ford, Volkswagen, Fiat Chrysler, and Mercedes-Benz. 
  4. There is evidence that Apple is specifically interested in the areas of battery technology (A123 Systems hires) and autonomous driving (numerous hires). 
  5. Outside hiring continues to ramp indicating an increasing level of advancement, importance, and priority.  

As reported by the WSJ, Steve Zadesky appears to be playing a major role in Apple Car development. In addition, Jony Ive and Marc Newson will likely play a pivotal role in coming up not only with Apple Car's design, but also the materials and manufacturing processes involved in such a product. 

A Startup Mentality

Apple's ultimate success with Project Titan will depend not on whether Apple can build autonomous features into an automobile or come up with a breakthrough user interface. Rather, those features are byproducts of the much bigger product that Apple is trying to build: the best team of automotive experts in the world. Even though Apple prides itself on a culture that puts the product first, the biggest risk factor to Apple Car is corporate politics and too many layers of management and decision-making. Success will come from allowing ideas to grow from the design labs to showroom without having interference. In addition, having a team comprised of members with various backgrounds and experiences could prove to be detrimental in making technology more personal. The following table highlights Apple's increased ambition with Apple Car compared to iPhone and Apple Watch development.

Using the Same Apple Playbook for Apple Car

Early Apple Car development shares aspects of previous Apple product development cycles. In the mid-2000s, hundreds of engineers working on the iPhone were separated from the rest of Apple. Adam Lashinsky detailed the thought process behind this move in his book "Inside Apple":

"By selectively keeping some employees from concerning themselves with colleagues elsewhere in a giant company, Apple creates the illusion that these employees in fact don't work for a giant company. They work for a giant start-up...The original iPhone team, for example, didn't interact with the people working on the iPod, then the dominant and fast-growing product at Apple. The iPhone organization was allowed to raid the iPod group and other areas of the company for engineering talent. That's because the iPhone was a corporate priority, driven from the top."

Evidence suggests Apple Car is Apple's growing priority. Project Titan leadership has reportedly been poaching employees from other divisions, and one should expect this trend to intensity in the coming years. This is not to suggest that the iPhone, iPad, and Mac will be put on the back-burner. Instead, Apple is only now finding its stride with those products. As seen with the iPhone 6s / 6s Plus, Apple did not settle for a "S" cycle update but is instead much more focused on shipping new iPhone features each year that help support the shift to a leasing paradigm where many iPhone buyers upgrade to the latest iPhone model every year. Take a look at iPod trends back when the iPhone was being developed; Apple actually saw increasing iPod sales on new and innovative models all the way up to 2008. It is important to not underestimate the breadth of talent Apple has dedicated to its current product lineup, even after taking into consideration losses to Project Titan.

The other element that Apple has used masterfully to build suspense for its products over the years is secrecy. This extends even to the actual team working on the product under development. It is very likely only a small number of Project Titan members have seen automobile prototypes. This would be similar to the way Apple allowed very few people to know  the full story about the iPhone during development, as chronicled in Fred Vogelstein's "Dogfight: How Apple and Google Went to War and Started a Revolution": 

"Engineers designing the iPhone's electronics weren't allowed to see the software it would run. When they needed software to test the electronics, they were given proxy code, not the real thing. If you were working on the software, you used a simulator to test hardware performance." 

The end goal is simple: limit the number of people that have access to the most valuable information. 

Adapting the Apple Playbook to the Environment

There are signs that Apple isn't just trying to repeat the path to success taken with past products, but rather is adapting to the current environment. In a sign that Apple is moving beyond its traditional comfort zone with automobiles, the company has needed to look outside to hire many Project Titan team members. The intriguing theme found with Project Titan recruitment is that Apple has hired talent from various industries and fields including the current automotive industry, software and technology industries, and even R&D labs in academia. All of this is in contrast to how the iPhone was developed. The Apple vs. Samsung patent trial revealed certain aspects as to how the iPhone team came into existence. Scott Forstall, head of iOS software at the time, described some of the parameters including looking within to hire all software people:

"Steve [Jobs] didn't want to hire anyone from outside of Apple to work on the software, but he said I could hire anyone in the company I wanted. So I'd bring recruits into my office. Sit them down and tell them, 'You are a superstar at Apple. Whatever you are doing now, you'll do fine. But I have another project that I want you to consider. I can't tell you what it is. All I can say is that you will have to give up untold nights and weekends and that you will work harder than you have ever worked in your life."

Talent Wars

Personal transport will be the next big battleground for technology companies. We are already seeing the early stages of this battle when it comes to retaining talent, not to mention intense recruitment battles. One benefit, and some say reason, for all of the reports on Project Titan is that Apple is able to inform the world, unofficially, that they are assembling a team tasked with producing an electric car. In a way it can be thought of as a casting call sent out not just to other technology companies, but to entire industries including automobile manufacturers and supply chain management experts. One can also include the mapping and augmented reality fields as being connected to the automobile space, from which Apple has been actively acquiring talent over the past year.

Apple, Google, Tesla, and Uber have shown a willingness to get involved in the transportation space, and it is not unreasonable to expect others to join in the coming years. At the same time, current automakers are quickly building up their own R&D labs in Silicon Valley with the focus being on the software side of the equation, including autonomous driving. The winners in this war will be those that are able to attract the best and brightest. One way of accomplishing this goal is to create an environment conducive to achieving results. This is one benefit from Project Titan where new employees are likely brought on with the premise that the team acts like any other startup but has the backing of a $650 billion market cap company with $200 billion of cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet. 

Tim Cook's and Jony's Role

Project Titan represents Apple's second new product category in the Tim Cook era. There are similarities in how the Apple Car and Apple Watch were developed which provide clues as to the type of leader Tim Cook is and how he thinks about Apple's values. With Apple Watch, Apple was willing to alter some of its outward appearance and take on slightly different goals involving wearables and luxury themes. This same philosophy will apply to Project Titan where Apple will need to change some of its practices, such as working with regulatory agencies more, in order to be able to ship a working product.

Tim Cook's role and value as CEO continues to come into focus: find the most talented people in a certain field, and get them to come to Apple by building the right kind of environment conducive to making the impossible seem in reach. Meanwhile, Jony is tasked with making sure the product always comes first, ranging from new iPhones and iPads to new Apple Stores and Apple Campus 2. 

Cook and Jony are overseeing Apple's largest creation yet: an electric car startup called Project Titan.

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The Pixar iPhone

It is time to start questioning the iPhone "S" cycle, the often referred to development cycle theory in which a significant iPhone update is followed by a more minor, evolutionary update the following year. Instead, the best way to understand how Apple thinks about iPhone development is to look at Pixar. The film company has multiple films under development at any given time in order to ship at least one new film a year. Similarly, Apple is developing a number of iPhone features at any given time with the goal of shipping a more advanced iPhone at least once a year. As more people upgrade their iPhones annually using monthly leases, shipping iPhone features just to match a two-year iPhone "S" cycle begins to look like a dated theory.

The iPhone "S" Cycle Theory

"Which iPhone cycle are you on?"

This question has come to symbolize the iPhone development cycle. Partly due to Apple's own iPhone nomenclature, consensus has settled on the theory that Apple keeps its significant iPhone updates for whole numbered years (iPhone 3G, 4, 5, 6, and so on). Consequently, the odd years, or so-called "S" years, are characterized by more modest, evolutionary software and hardware upgrades (iPhone 3GS, 4s, 5s, 6s and so on). Exhibit 1 depicts the iPhone "S" cycle theory in which greater advancements in iPhone development are said to occur every other year. 

Exhibit 1: The iPhone "S" Cycle Development Theory

The major implication from the iPhone "S" cycle is that Apple is guided by a two-year development cycle where the focus is on getting iPhone users to upgrade their iPhone not every year, but rather every two years. Much of this theory is based on the early days of mobile carriers subsidizing iPhones. By having carriers "subsidize" the iPhone's cost, customers agreed to be locked into a multi-year contract. With early iPhone upgrades being nearly nonexistent, it was often in the customer's best interest to upgrade their iPhone soon after their standard two-year contract expired. 

As Apple expanded the iPhone into new geographies and carriers, this subsidized model began representing a smaller portion of iPhones sold. Today, the subsidy model is breaking apart as the up-front costs associated with such plans have weighed on carriers. In its place, carriers are embracing monthly lease plans which amount to nothing more than interest-free financing.

Annual iPhone Upgrades

The iPhone Upgrade Program was one of the more strategically important announcements announced at Apple's "Hey Siri" keynote. Apple's goal is rather straightforward: make it easier for consumers to upgrade to a new iPhone every year. Apple isn't reinventing the wheel with the iPhone Upgrade Program as AT&T, T-Mobile, and Sprint have similar iPhone leasing and upgrade options. The major implication from the move towards iPhone leasing is that millions of iPhone customers will be moving from a two-year iPhone upgrade cycle to an annual iPhone upgrade cycle. With these plans, not only are there no carrier penalties associated with upgrading to the latest iPhone each year, but in some ways such behavior is even promoted by the carrier. The incentive is no longer to wait to buy a new iPhone. In some ways, this trend is a byproduct of an iPhone development cycle that has been able to entice users to want the latest and greatest iPhone. If the iPhone truly followed an "on and off year" cycle, few would feel the need to want a new iPhone every year. 

A Different Kind of iPhone Cycle

There are additional signs that the iPhone "S" development cycle may have ended years ago, if it ever existed. When looking at the last four iPhone updates, it's clear that Apple is using a different upgrade cycle. The following features were the tentpole features of that particular iPhone release:

  • iPhone 5: Larger iPhone screen
  • iPhone 5s: Touch ID / Gold color
  • iPhone 6 / 6 Plus: Larger iPhone screens / Apple Pay 
  • iPhone 6s / 6s Plus: 3D Touch / Live Photos / Rose Gold color

Not only has there been at least one noteworthy new iPhone feature each year, but it could be argued that the updates seen in the "S" years (iPhone 5s and iPhone 6s / 6s Plus) are more strategically important than the cosmetic changes seen in the "non-S" (iPhone 5 and iPhone 6 / 6 Plus) years. Touch ID has become a crucial element of the iPhone ecosystem, and 3D Touch will likely follow the same path. Meanwhile, the iPhone's screen growing size, especially to 4.7 and 5.5 inches, has been a game changer across the world. The takeaway is that the "S" cycle concept where there are more important iPhone upgrades every other year is starting to look incomplete and not representative of how Apple thinks about iPhone development. Something else is at play driving iPhone development.

Exhibit 2 shows a more likely representation of iPhone development. Instead of shipping the most advanced features every other year, Apple strives to ship at least one major, new iPhone feature every year. The goal is simple and straightforward: ship a more advanced iPhone that beats the previous year's model. Market analysts often debate Apple's biggest competitor to iPhone each year. In reality, the iPhone's biggest competitor is the previous year's iPhone. 

Exhibit 2: A Revised iPhone Development Theory

Tim Cook recently talked with BuzzFeed's John Paczkowski about a number of topics, including the "S" iPhone cycle. His comments support the view that the tick-tock nature of an "S" cycle is no longer relevant. Speaking about Apple's latest iPhones, Paczkowski wrote, "Apple released the iPhone on a tick-tock cycle; with the 'tock' device typically being a modest refinement of the 'tick' device that debuted the year prior with a new form factor and other big upgrades. This is traditionally a 'tock' year, but [Tim] Cook bristles at this notion. '[The iPhone 6s / 6s Plus update] is clearly not an off-year issue,' he argues. 'This is a substantial change.'"  

Cook went on to say, "[a]s soon as products are ready we're going to release them...There's no holding back. We're not going to look at something and say 'let's keep that one for next time.' We'd rather ship everything we've got, and put pressure on ourselves to do something even greater next time." Cook's comments describe a different iPhone development model than what is implied with the iPhone "S" cycle. 

The Pixar Model of Product Development

One company that stands out for its superior product development is Pixar. Instead of putting all of its resources into working on one film a year, the film studio has multiple films under development at any given time since it takes longer than a year to bring a movie from concept to a finished product. The end result is a steady product release schedule that has moved from a new film every few years to soon two films a year. Exhibit 3 highlights the development timeline for each Pixar movie. The company went from developing one movie at a time in the early 1990s (Toy Story) to having at least seven films at some stage of development in 2015 (Inside Out, The Good Dinosaur, Finding Dory, Toy Story 4, Coco, Cars 3, and The Incredibles 2).

Exhibit 3: Pixar Film Development Timeline (click to enlarge)

For Apple, the iPhone is likely following a product development strategy and timeline similar to that of Pixar. At any one time, Apple has a number of iPhone features under development since it takes more than one year for many features to go from concept to finished product. Even though the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus were just announced, Apple has already been working on features for next year's iPhones and even the iPhones for the year after. The goal is to have a new iPhone with at least one major new feature at least every year. 

We got a closer look at this development schedule with 3D Touch. Phil Schiller commented to Bloomberg that 3D Touch was in development for years. "Engineering-wise, the hardware to build a display that does what [3D Touch] does is unbelievably hard...And we're going to waste a whole year of engineering - really, two- at a tremendous amount of cost and investment in manufacturing if it doesn't do something that [people] are going to use. If it's just a demo feature and a month later nobody is really using it, this is a huge waste of engineering talent." The same could be said of Apple Pay, the new cameras, iOS features, not to mention the different iPhone colors."

Expanding iPhone Development Capabilities

Similar to how Pixar has grown its development capabilities over the years from being able to do one film every few years to soon two films a year, I expect the iPhone development cycle to accelerate in the coming years. In some ways, Apple has already been showing this level of expansion. We went from one new iPhone model a year to now having two new models a year (iPhone 6s and 6s Plus). It is not unfathomable to see Apple expand this to three new models a year and embrace a product line with different screen sizes corresponding to different models (iPhone Plus, iPhone, iPhone mini).

The era of a tick-tock development cycle for iPhone is over. 

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iPhone Launch Weekends are Getting Silly - Above Avalon Premium Week in Review

Along with periodic Above Avalon posts available to everyone, I send out an exclusive daily email about Apple to members (10-12 stories per week). You can subscribe here. The following story was sent to members on September 15th. 

iPhone Launch Weekends are Getting Silly

On Monday morning, Twitter went a bit crazy right around 8:30 a.m. ET as some began wondering if Apple would issue a press release disclosing how many iPhone pre-orders it saw this past weekend. Apple had done exactly that last year, reporting four million iPhone 6 and 6 Plus pre-orders. 

We didn't get a press release this year, but instead an Apple statement disseminated through the press. It's rather short, so I've included the entire statement below:

"Customer response to iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus has been extremely positive and pre-orders this weekend were very strong around the world. We are on pace to beat last year's 10 million unit first-weekend record when the new iPhones go on sale September 25. As many customers noticed, the online demand for iPhone 6s Plus has been exceptionally strong and exceeded our own forecasts for the pre-order period. We are working to catch up as quickly as we can, and we will have iPhone 6s Plus as well as iPhone 6s units available at Apple retail stores when they open next Friday."

There was a little bit for everyone in that statement, but the biggest takeaway I got from that is that this entire fascination with opening weekend sales feels old, a relic from a begone era. Essentially, its a leftover from the smartphone wars where opening weekend sales were a sign that your phones were popular.   

As expected, Wall Street analysts quickly began trying to read in between the lines, figuring out a way of using Apple's 103-word statement to judge their 2016 iPhone sales estimate. This represents the fundamental problem Wall Street has with Apple. The focus is on the wrong thing. I even saw some analysts comparing this year's Saturday morning iPhone pre-order release to last year's Friday morning release and then making some guesses as to what it all means about year-over-year growth. It's getting silly. 

This trend of Apple releasing iPhone opening weekend sales number goes back to the original iPhone and that is one reason why so many observers are so flummoxed with yesterday's statement from Apple. We were accustomed to very detailed iPhone and iPad opening weekend sales announcements and now we are getting less and less in the way of disclosure. In reality, the usefulness of these releases has steadily declined, but most people haven't noticed. 

When you consider that we are effectively using 4-5 million iPhone pre-orders to try to discern how Apple will do over the next 12 months selling up to 270 million iPhones, the silliness becomes apparent.

My philosophy on Apple announcing sales numbers has been very straight-forward. If Apple thought it had something to gain from releasing sales numbers, then they should release them.

  • Early iPod sales numbers? Tell the world that Apple actually has a product people want.  
  • Early iPhone sales numbers? Tell the world that people actually want a smartphone with no physical keyboard.
  • Early iPad sales numbers? Tell the world that people really do want "just a big iPod touch."

By releasing sales numbers, Apple had something to prove to the world. That motivation is disappearing with iPhone. Opening weekend sales now represents just 4% of annual iPhone sales. Instead, analysts want Apple to release numbers in order to parse out if iPhone sales are growing or not. It's that simple. Of course, Apple ends up releasing iPhone sales numbers in financial filings anyways, but the short-term focus takes precedence.  

In reality, Apple's language around opening weekend sales has become more vague over the years, especially last year:  

  • iPhone 1st gen (2007) = 1M in 74 days (U.S. only - AT&T)
  • 3G (2008) = 1M in 3 days (21 countries)
  • 3GS (2009) = Over 1M in 3 days (9 countries)
  • 4 (2010) = 1.7M in 3 days (600,000 pre-orders on first day) (5 countries)
  • 4s (2011) = Over 4M in 3 days (1 million pre-orders on first day) (7 countries)
  • 5 (2012) = Over 5M in 3 days (2 million pre-orders on first day) (9 countries)
  • 5c / 5s (2013) = 9M in 3 days (11 countries including China in launch window for the first time)
  • 6/ 6 Plus (2014) = Over 10M in 3 days (4 million pre-orders on first day) (10 countries not including China)
  • 6s / 6s Plus (2015) = Better sales than last year (12 countries including China)

The reason I say that the language is a bit unclear is that last year's "over 10M in 3 days" could very well have been closer to 11M iPhone units, but instead Apple felt "over 10M" would be good enough when compared to the 9M iPhones reported in 2013. Expectations weren't too high since China wasn't in the original launch country list last year. The market would understand if Apple didn't report too much of a sales increase from 2013. This point only goes to show how irrelevant iPhone opening weekend sales have become. 

Over the past few years, iPhone opening weekend sales have been more a sign of how Apple has been able to ramp iPhone supply instead of demand. Without going into too much accounting detail, the only iPhone sales Apple includes in opening weekend numbers are those units that have been shipped to an end user. If you pre-order an iPhone, but need to wait a few weeks to receive it, you are not included in opening weekend sales. The pre-order numbers were therefore a bit clearer picture of demand since a pre-order is not the same thing as a sale. Of course, Apple started releasing pre-order numbers once opening weekend sales numbers started to look less attractive on a year-over-year basis.  

I would not be surprised if Apple eventually moves away from announcing opening weekend product sales altogether. Apple has shown no interest in disclosing Apple Watch sales, and Apple stopped releasing opening weekend iPad sales right around when unit sales started to decline (another sign that disclosing opening weekend sales is one big game). Critics will say Apple stopped releasing sales because of weaker sales growth. While iPhone sales growth may very well slow, I rather look at it as Apple is now a much bigger company in a different landscape. The Android/iOS activation wars are over. There are other ways to convince the world that iPhones are popular and worth buying besides releasing opening weekend sales. In addition, opening weekend numbers aren't even a good measure of iPhone growth. If we compare the change in opening weekend sales to the corresponding iPhone growth over the following FY year: 

  • 2010: 70% growth in iPhone opening weekend sales (81% iPhone unit growth in following year)
  • 2011: 135% (73%)
  • 2012: 25% (20%)
  • 2013: 80% (13%)
  • 2014: 11% (38%)

I look at that discrepancy as reason for why opening weekend sales is not the most useful parameter to judge iPhone sales. 

Over the years there have been ulterior motives to disclose opening weekend sales. Times change. It's making less sense these days to disclose arbitrary sales numbers spanning a few days. 

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The New Apple Era

We love our smartphones. Not only have they become our most used computer, but more importantly, smartphones provide an unimaginable amount of power at our fingertips. However, the smartphone form factor leaves opportunities for other devices to provide this same kind of incredible power only in even more personal ways. Apple is laying the groundwork for new platforms based on wearables, the connected home, and eventually the car that will combine to form one large encompassing ecosystem that ushers in a new level of personal technology. We are entering a new Apple era. 

The Old Era

Apple's product line used to be thought of as a stool with each leg representing a different product. While a few legs were clearly more popular and financially lucrative than others, Apple was a technology company that sold a handful of hardware devices with iTunes (and increasingly iCloud) serving as the glue that held everything together.  

Consensus was set on the iPhone, iPad, and Mac forming an ecosystem that will play a crucial role in our lives. In reality, these three product categories are much more similar than people have been thinking. New platforms are needed to help make technology more approachable and personal.

The New Era

The iPhone, iPad, and Mac are converging into one central "brain" while new platforms will be formed focused on key aspects of our lives including transportation, home, and body (wearables). In this new era, the iPhone is positioned as the center point of our digital lives with iCloud and Apple services representing the glue connecting everything together. 

Earlier this year at WWDC, Apple unveiled watchOS, its first wearables platform. Last week, Apple added a new platform to the mix with tvOS. The two platforms serve as examples for how Apple will eventually embrace bigger themes like wearables and the connected home (and eventually the car). All the while, iOS is maturing and becoming a platform for a range of mobile devices with various screen sizes. 

The Opportunity

iPhone. The iPhone, iPad, and Mac product categories will continue to merge. In the future, the three product lines will run the same operating system with the degree of mobility, as measured by screen size, positioned as the primary differentiator. The iPhone will always have the most power due to its mobility, while the iPad brings multi-touch (and eventually 3D Touch) to a bigger screen. All the while, the Mac includes the best keyboards for those jobs that require a significant amount of typing. The differences between the three product categories will continue to shrink. 

Apple's new 3D Touch feature not only brings an additional user interface to iPhone, but should be thought of as the missing piece for allowing iPhone screens to become even larger without increasing the iPhone's form factor. 3D Touch begins to reduce the need for the home button, which has turned into a type of reset button used to switch between apps. By removing the iPhone home button and filling the additional space with screen real estate, the iPhone will only gain more power and capabilities when compared to devices like the iPad mini and Air. Less mobile devices, like the larger screen iPad Pro, will continue to become more like the Mac, with the primary difference between the two product categories continuing to be the keyboard. Bringing 3D Touch to the iPad Pro and supporting a tactile onscreen keyboard may be the next step to further blur the lines between iPad and Mac. At the same time, the Mac continues to move towards the iPad with a new revolutionary design that places mobility as a key value proposition. The end result is a world where iPhone can accomplish most basic computing tasks with iPad/Mac running the same operating system serving the high-end. 

Wearables. In just a little over two months, Apple went from selling its first genuine wearable device to unveiling an SDK for native Apple Watch apps. While many have tried to think of Apple Watch as a mini iPhone on the wrist, in reality, the Apple Watch represents a different type of power requiring a complete rethink of what kind of jobs can be done on the wrist. Last week, Apple rolled out a significant update to Apple Watch in the form of a new Hermès collection and new Apple Watch sport bands. This update exemplifies how success in wearables is determined by much more than just the idea of putting technology on a wrist. There are different types of emotions and guiding principles that enter the equation when thinking about devices that are meant to be worn on the body.

Apple's new Hermès partnership is a game changer in that Apple is not just embracing the concept of luxury, but is set on showing the world a completely new type of personal technology. The entire luxury industry needs to take note of what Apple is trying to accomplish as software continues to move quickly into other elements of the luxury wearable market. Apple isn't taking the same page from its iPhone playbook and applying it to wearables. Instead, the strategy is being adapted to fit the environment. It is incredibly intelligent and bodes well for new platforms such as TV (home) and eventually the car. As for wearables, the much bigger concept of body and mind are brought to the forefront as health tracking will likely be positioned as a key value proposition in the wearables category. In addition, identity and geolocation themes will likely become popular. Each case is made possible by the fact that a wearable device does a better job of being carried and representing the user than a smartphone does.   

Home. Apple TV is the start of a much broader move by Apple into the connected home category. The primary takeaway from the all-new Apple TV is that Apple is including a new user input in the form of voice. Siri not only took front and center stage when it came to Apple's September keynote invites, but the personal assistant is quickly being able to handle an increasing number of tasks beginning with content curation and discovery, and then eventually handling automation tasks. Apple TV may be focused today on delivering content to a big screen but will likely move to become a device able to turn spacial and facial recognition into a new realm of personal computing. Apple began controlling the living room years ago with the iPhone, but Apple TV will begin to better address the ideas of the connected room in a more direct way than the iPhone will ever be able to. Similar to wearables, Apple is relying on a new class of hardware (and user interfaces) to make technology approachable and personal. 

Car. Apple wants to design its own self-driving car. This is a company that has no interest in just creating a platform so that less capable car manufacturers can ruin the user experience. We are quickly moving to a world where technology will take over the transportation industry, and Apple has no choice but be part of the mix. The Apple Car's key value proposition won't revolve around performance, but rather good design and an intuitive user interface (not having to drive at all is an entirely new level of intuitiveness). A self-driving electric vehicle is nothing more than a mobile room on wheels, which only emphasizes the concept of personal technology as we all won't want to ride in the same kind of room. Accordingly, the themes of connected home and self-driving cars become intertwined.

Apps Provide a Personal Touch

Apple wants to position apps as the guiding principle of its strategy to move from a company that sells a collection of computing devices to delivering a complete user experience that spans most tasks that make up our daily lives. The app ecosystem transformed the iPhone into an all-powerful device by allowing each device to become something unique to its user. Apple is looking to do the same with Apple Watch (watchOS) and now Apple TV (tvOS). The hardware remains a critical requirement for ultimate success, but apps complete the picture. 

Looking back at Apple's WWDC keynote, the significance of the "The App Effect" video that was shown takes on a whole new meaning after seeing Apple unveil watchOS and tvOS. While the video was focused on iPhone apps, it is reasonable to one day replace "iPhone" with "Apple Watch," "Home," and even "Car." Apple looks at apps as the path to accomplishing its long term goals. 

Apple's new platforms will be embraced by app developers because the categories that Apple is playing in are simply too large and lucrative to ignore. App developer characteristics may change as larger developers begin to control more of the app environment, likely continuing to push down the price of paid downloads with business models based instead on subscriptions and services. At the same time, Apple is in a prime position to embrace and help push its own suite of apps. The IBM partnership may be positioned today for iPad in the workplace, but such a partnership could one day embrace a range of new apps across product categories. Along similar lines, the Cisco partnership is already expected to begin embracing new product categories other than iPhone, iPad, and Mac.

The Long-Term Plan

The iPhone was launched in 2007 and in just eight years has gone on to not just change the world, but provide a framework as to how apps and software can begin to take over other key aspects of our lives. As we look much further into the future, it is likely incorrect to assume that an iPhone will always be required in order to get the most out of the connected world. 

In the future, the iPhone may melt away, and a range of devices will be able to provide an unimaginable level of personal technology. Apple Watch will likely be able to stand on its own in due time. As the definition of work changes, more and more will be designated for the wrist, further strengthening the appeal of wearables. Transportation and the connected home will be looked at as providing the same kind of personal experience. 

Targeting our Time

Apple's long-term goal is to bring personal technology into new parts of our lives. Looking ahead, the iPhone will not be able to bring this kind of technology to every part of our lives. Instead, Apple will rely on new platforms and devices suited to address our particular needs. The best way to predict where Apple is looking to expand is to look at the time. The aspects of our life that take up most of our time are the most likely opportunities as to where Apple will see if it has something to contribute. 

Making technology personal entails moving beyond just simply combining hardware and software. Instead, the way the hardware (and software) looks, feels, and moves will become crucial factors, all of which are things Apple has been perfecting for years. The groundwork is being laid for an era in which the iPhone is just one piece of the personal technology puzzle.   

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Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Intrigue & Above Avalon Premium Weekly Recap

Along with periodic Above Avalon posts, I send out an exclusive daily email about Apple to members (10-12 stories per week). You can subscribe here. The following story was sent to members on August 31st. 

Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Intrigue

Apple keynotes are products in themselves. While it is easy to spot the immense level of training and practice that goes into delivering the keynote, the entire event plays a role in how Apple wants to explain itself to the world. 

In today's media landscape, an Apple keynote has taken on a different role, maturing from the single most important way to drum up interest in a product, to one step in a series of events, interviews, and presentations aimed to keep Apple at the top of the ever-changing news cycle. Along those lines, an Apple keynote, all the way down to the venue choice, can be an incredibly useful and valuable piece for figuring out Apple marketing and strategy. 

Over the past four years, Apple has relied on three primary locations for its keynotes: Town Hall at Apple HQ, Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, and of course Moscone West for WWDC. The one exception was last year's iPhone 6/6 Plus and Apple Watch event held at the Flint Center. That particular venue was noteworthy not just for its larger auditorium seating capacity, but also for the clear excitement and anticipation surrounding the event as Apple entered its first new product category since the iPad in 2010.

Past Apple keynotes: 

  • 2012 - February 22 - Yerba Buena Center for the Arts
  • 2012 - WWDC - Moscone West
  • 2012- September 12 - Yerba Buena Center for the Arts
  • 2013 - WWDC - Moscone West
  • 2013 - September 10 - Town Hall at Apple HQ
  • 2013 - October 22 - Yerba Buena Center for the Arts
  • 2014 - WWDC - Moscone West
  • 2014 - September 9 - Flint Center for the Performing Arts at De Anza College
  • 2014 - October 16 - Town Hall at Apple HQ
  • 2015 - March 9 - Yerba Buena Center for the Arts
  • 2015 - WWDC - Moscone West

Seating capacities for these locations ranged from the smaller Town Hall (301) and Yerba Buena Center (757) to Flint Center (2,405). WWDC has 5,000 total attendees although not everyone is able to have a seat in the main Moscone West keynote room. 

Speculation over Apple's upcoming event started to take off last week when Hoodline, a San Francisco neighborhood news site, published a story about there being quite a bit of activity taking place at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium despite nothing being publicly planned for the venue until mid-September.

Regulars began to notice security guards and police officers stationed around the building. In addition, there had been quite a bit of construction activity, including the installation of large power generators and AC units outside blocking a few lanes of traffic. One Hoodline reader commented that he saw forklifts bringing in what appeared to be temporary flooring. Apparently, whatever was being done inside had been going on for weeks.

Last Wednesday, Hoodline ran a story that said Apple was indeed the company up to something at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium and that there were a number of street closures around the building planned for the week of September 8th to 10th. As a fun fact, the Apple II was introduced at the same location in 1977 at the West Coast Computer Faire. Back then it was called the San Francisco Civc Auditorium. My interest was piqued by the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium being the choice for Apple's next keynote. 

After Apple sent out event invites this past Thursday, I took a closer look at the venue choice since it still stood out to me. The first thing that caught my attention was that the building is quite large with a 7,000-person capacity, which is nearly 10x larger than the Yerba Buena Center. The other aspect of the location that seemed a bit strange is its layout and floor plan. It is actually an arena with a high ceiling. Along with music concerts, the venue is used for trade shows and sporting events. There is a large flat seating area (similar to Moscone) surrounded by a significant amount of balcony seating in a U-shape. It is quite different from prior Apple keynote venues. 

Using such a large venue for an Apple product unveiling obviously brings up the question if Apple is planning on having a large guest list including press and guests from a wide range of industries. Last year, Apple invited quite a few additional people to the Apple Watch unveiling at the Flint Center. Not only were there people from the fashion and fitness industries on hand, including more celebrities than normal, but there were also a significant number of Apple employees in attendance. Most of the Flint Center's 2,500 seats were filled. What could Apple possibly do with an area with nearly 4,500 additional seats?

After posting that question on Twitter, I didn't find much evidence to suggest that Apple had invited that many more people than was the case with previous events. However, I did start to get a few clues as to what Apple may have had in mind by choosing the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium. One Above Avalon member pointed me to a tweet musing that Apple may look to transform the inside of the building into a space that would be completely unrecognizable. Last year, Dot Party, an event series created by Markus Persson, creator of Minecraft, held a concert at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium. After quite a bit of construction, the space was turned into a pretty interesting concert/music hall. 

A few people have speculated Apple may in fact be building an entire structure within the arena (which explains all of the extra air cooling machinery). Think of something like an enclosed stage/audience seating area positioned next to another completely enclosed room housing the demo area. One large open space would be turned into a series of still-large rooms. 

Putting all of the pieces together, it is likely that Apple chose the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium due to the ability to customize the space much more than what would be possible at locations like the Yerba Buena Center. In addition, the space is able to handle a more decent-sized crowd than Town Hall at Apple HQ. However, it does not seem likely that Apple is planning on having a record guest list numbering close to 7,000 people. 

Judging by the Apple event invitation byline of "Hey Siri, give us a hint." one can deduce that Siri will play a pivotal role in the event. In addition, with rumors that Apple will unveil a new Apple TV, the prospects of a Siri-controlled Apple TV may require unique stage and demo areas. Don't forget how Apple constructed an entire temporary structure next to the Flint Center last year just to house a special demo area. The same level of construction seems to be occurring at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium, only inside. 

Eventually, Apple will host many of its product events at the 1000-seat underground auditorium being built at Apple Campus 2. However, I would not be shocked if Apple still goes elsewhere for a keynote from time to time (like WWDC and other locations). The ability to suit a particular site for a specific product can be incredibly rewarding.   

A few weeks worth of construction at a new venue means that the location for this upcoming Apple keynote will add to the mystery and intrigue leading up to September 9th. 

Along with the preceding story, the full list of stories sent to Above Avalon members this week included: 

Apple Watch's Biggest Competitor

The Android Smartwatch Army

Apple's Original Programming Temptation

Apple Event "Leaks"

Global Smartphone Trends for July

The Apple/Cisco Partnership

Apple Takes Washington

Thursday Q&A: How is the premium email going? Spoiler: It's going great.

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