Taylor Swift is Backing Herself Into a Corner, Calculating Apple Watch Band Profit, Apple's Cash Dilemma
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Taylor Swift is Backing Herself Into a Corner
- Calculating Apple Watch Band Profit
- Apple's Cash Dilemma (Why Not Just Pay the Tax?)
It's a new week and things are starting off busy. We first discuss the Taylor Swift vs. Apple battle over Apple Music's 3 month trial period. While Taylor Swift appeared to win, she may actually be backing herself into a corner. Next, we take a closer look at a recent Reuters article which suggests Apple Watch bands are providing quite a bit of profit to Apple, which I have my doubts is true. We conclude with a director's cut of my recent "Apple's Cash Dilemma" piece and why just paying tax on foreign cash and bringing excess cash to the U.S. isn't the best option.
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Fitbit Prices IPO Above Expectations, Cablevision CEO Comments on Cable Bundle, How to Discover Apple Watch Sales
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Fitbit Prices IPO Above Expectations
- Cablevision CEO Sees Cable Bundle Dying
- How to Discover Apple Watch Sales
Fitbit priced its IPO last night well above its initial range, valuing the company at $4.1 billion. We will go over the valuation, explain what's next for Fitbit, and look at how we can get Apple-related clues from them once they are a public company. Next, we will discuss Cablevision CEO's comments about the cable bundle starting to crumble and what the next phase of TV transformation may look like. We conclude by going over the math behind how one can obtain a pretty good estimate of Apple Watch sales estimates when Apple reports earnings each quarter.
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Wall Street Doubting Apple Watch, Apple Hiring News Editors, Apple Retail Store Renovations
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Wall Street Doubting Apple Watch
- Apple Hiring News Editors
- Apple Retail Store Renovations
We kick things off today by going over the latest Wall Street analyst report raising concerns that Apple Watch sales will underwhelm. Next, we shift over to the new job listing for Apple News Editors and the two obstacles that Apple will need to overcome with its News app. Finally, we go over a few quick thoughts behind Apple's plans to renovate 20 of its retail stores, including some of its most iconic locations.
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Apple's New Search APIs, New Productivity Features Hint at iPad's Future
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's New Search APIs
- New Productivity Features Hint at iPad's Future
Today we take a closer look at Apple's new search APIs in iOS 9 introduced last week during WWDC. The closer look you get at what Apple is trying to accomplish here, the clearer the ramifications are when thinking about Apple's ongoing battle with Google, app search and discovery, and the next era of search. We next go over Apple's iPad productivity announcements at WWDC and what they may mean for the iPad's future.
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Genius Move Behind the Phil Schiller Interview, Apple is Playing Offense, Apple Correctly Killed Plans for Beats Wifi Speaker
Today's Above Avalon Premium stories:
- The Genius Move Behind the Phil Schiller Interview
- Apple is Playing Offense, not Defense
- Apple Correctly Killed Plans for Beats Wifi Speakers
We kick things off by taking a closer look at what Apple tried to accomplish with the Phil Schiller interview by John Gruber at WWDC last week. Next, we shift over and briefly discuss my "Apple is Playing Offense at WWDC" post published on Above Avalon. We conclude by going over the Variety report that Apple killed development of a Beats Wifi speaker and why I think that was a good decision in context of Apple's bigger plans with headphones/speakers.
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Looking at WWDC as an Apple Financial Analyst, There Won't Be an Apple vs. MCX Battle
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Looking at WWDC as an Apple Financial Analyst
- There Won't Be an Apple vs. MCX Battle in Mobile Payments
Sticking with this week's WWDC theme, we begin by looking at WWDC from the perspective of an Apple financial analyst, including a few theories on what I think is becoming a much more important factor for AAPL investors to pay attention to. We then shift over to Apple Pay and dissect Apple's recent announcements for the mobile payments service, including how U.S. adoption is looking and why a battle between Apple and MCX is not too likely.
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Apple Music Isn't about Music Streaming, Apple Keynotes Are Losing Their Value
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Music Isn't about Music Streaming
- Apple Keynotes are Losing Their Value
There are many topics that I have lined up to discuss over the coming days related to WWDC announcements and their impact on Apple, the company's financials, and Wall Street's view of Apple. Today, I wanted to start by going over why Apple is releasing Apple Music and what is the company's overall strategy with the service. Next, I go into more detail on why I think the Apple keynote is losing some of its value due to Apple's much bigger size and new public relations strategy, not to mention how we consume news and content differently these days.
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WWDC
Today's Above Avalon stories:
All about the WWDC keynote. The discussion is divided into three parts:
- OS X and iOS 9
- watchOS 2
- Apple Music
At the end, I've included my more granular notes from the event. There is a lot to go over, and there are other subtopics that I hope to cover in subsequent days.
WWDC Summary. Apple continues to play to its strengths, which is not surprising given that both OS X and iOS are currently at their strongest in terms of user numbers and vitality. With a WWDC keynote titled "The epicenter of change," Apple is positioning iOS as a clear alternative to Android, emphasizing a new and different way of thinking about what makes a great user experience in mobile. Apple is not just doubling down on apps, but also looking to diminish its dependence on Google. Siri was given additional capabilities as a personal assistant in order to move us past traditional web search and begin to use data found on our iPhone in more creative ways. Apple Music is Apple's answer to get back in the streaming music game and while the product looks right, the pricing strategy for paid streaming does not guarantee an instant home run just yet against free alternatives. Overall, it was a strong WWDC, and Apple is well-positioned for new hardware announcements this fall.
(the entire note is 3,500 words)
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Key Power Brokers at Apple, Marc Newson's Role at Apple, WWDC "Preview"
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Key Power Brokers at Apple
- Marc Newson's Role at Apple
- WWDC "Preview"
We kick WWDC week off by discussing the current power structure within Apple and who holds the most power both internally and externally. We then shift over to Marc Newson's recently discovered interview that he gave last month, going over what I think the industrial designer is up to at Apple. Lastly, we conclude with my WWDC "preview," and the one thing I am most excited to see today and why.
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iPhone Sales Share Update, Odds of Apple Replacing Google for Search Going Up, Tim Cook's Stance on Privacy Isn't About Data
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- iPhone Sales Share Update
- Odds of Apple Replacing Google for Search Going Up
- Tim Cook's Stance on Privacy Isn't About Data
We kick things off today by going over the latest iPhone sales share from Kantar including some interesting observations about U.S. trends and the Android switcher rate. Next, we move over to why I think the odds of Apple replacing Google as the default search provider in Safari have gone up, concluding with a bit of different perspective on Tim Cook's discussion about data and privacy. I think many people are thinking about the topic in the wrong way.
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A Closer Look at Apple's Services Segment, The Chess Game Heading into WWDC, Shot on iPhone 6 Video Ads
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- A Closer Look at Apple's Services Business Segment
- The Chess Game Heading into WWDC
- New iPhone Ads
Happy Wednesday. I consider today's email as a type of WWDC preview. I wanted to start laying some of the framework for where iOS and Apple are positioned, heading into this year's developer conference. The first topic takes a closer look at Apple's Services business segment, which helps explain why Apple is rushing into music and video streaming. Next, we have an Apple strategy session for how I think Apple is thinking of the current environment in which one can argue iOS is at its strongest point since its inception. We conclude with a few words on Apple's latest "Shot on iPhone 6" marketing campaign.
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Apple Music Sounds More Interesting, Apple's Health Strategy, Apple Watch's Next Retail Phase
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Music Sounds More Interesting
- Apple's Health Strategy
- Apple Watch's Next Retail Phase
The WSJ is out with news on Apple's upcoming music streaming service and it is sounding quite a bit more interesting than previous reports have suggested. We then shift over to Jay Balnick visiting a few Apple Retail stores to talk health and fitness, which may shed some clues as to Apple's strategy towards health and wearables. Finally, we conclude with news on Apple Retail preparing for Apple Watch launch 2.0, when Apple Watch units will be available for sale in Apple Retail stores.
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Google I/O, Apple Acquires Metaio, IBM and MacBooks
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Google I/O
- Apple Acquires Metaio
- IBM and MacBooks
We kick things off with a recap of Google I/O, particularly from Apple's perspective. Next, we move over to Apple's acquisition of Metaio, which I think could be a game changer, indicating Apple's inevitable entry into augmented reality. Finally, we conclude with news of IBM's new policy towards Macs.
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Jeff Williams at the Re/code Conference, Additional Thoughts on Jony's Promotion, Snapchat and Apple's Video Streaming Plans
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Jeff Williams at the Re/code Conference
- Additional Thoughts on Jony's Promotion
- Snapchat and Apple's Video Streaming Plans
Jeff Williams spoke at the Re/code conference yesterday. After going over my takeaways from his talk, we shift over to a few additional thoughts I had on the Jony Ive promotion. Lastly, we go over some new Snapchat video viewing data and what it may mean for Apple's interest in video content.
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Samsung Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge Sales and Samsung's Turnaround, Calculating Apple Watch Adoption Rate in the U.S.
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Samsung Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge Not Showing Turnaround
- Calculating Apple Watch Adoption Rate in the U.S.
Today, we kick things off by taking a closer look at early Samsung Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge sales and what it may mean for the premium smartphone market. I then will shift over to calculating my first pass at Apple Watch adoption in the U.S. over the past month and then compare that to iPad adoption back during its first month on the market in 2010.
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