Apple's Involvement with Mission Motors, Updating FY16 iPhone Sales Estimate, iPhone Leasing Is a Game Changer
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Involvement with Mission Motors
- Updating FY16 iPhone Sales Estimate
- iPhone Leasing Is a Game Changer
We begin today's email by discussing Mission Motors and news that Apple is partly responsible for the company closing its doors early this year. Upon closer examination, we are able to reach a number of observations on how Apple is thinking about Project Titan and the automobile. We then discuss my updated FY2016 iPhone sales estimate including my revised methodology. We conclude by going over why leased iPhones are a game changer for Apple and three topics to consider when thinking about leasing and Apple's future.
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Tim Cook Gives Clues at WSJDLive, 4Q15 iPhone Sales Estimate, Estimating Historical iPhone Sales by Model (2007-Current)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Tim Cook Gives Clues at WSJDLive
- 4Q15 iPhone Sales Estimate
- Estimating Historical iPhone Sales by Model (2007-Current)
We kick off today's email by going over Tim Cook's talk last night at the WSJDLive conference. There were actually quite a few clues given dealing with Apple Music, Apple Watch, and the automobile. We then discuss my FY4Q15 iPhone estimate and the thought process behind my numbers. Today's final story takes a look at some work I've done on iPhone sales by model over time and a number of observations derived from the data.
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Motive Behind Apple's New RSU Program, Nissan's Mistake When Thinking About Apple Car
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Motive Behind Apple's New RSU Program
- Nissan's Mistake When Thinking About Apple Car
Today's email kicks off by taking a deep-dive into restricted stock units (RSUs) and why Tim Cook expanded the compensation incentive to all Apple employees. I suspect there are some clear motives underpinning the move. We next shift to Nissan's recent comments about some of the hot button topics impacting the automobile industry, including Tesla, Uber, Google, and Apple. Nissan appears to be making one grave mistake when it comes to Apple and when you take a step back, it's clear most of the automobile industry is running with the same incomplete logic. By focusing on this error, some of Apple's long-term goals with Project Titan become apparent.
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Dissecting Samsung's U.S. Smartphone Stronghold, Smartphone Changes Are Afoot in China, Thursday Q&A: Is Microsoft an Apple competitor?
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Dissecting Samsung's U.S. Smartphone Stronghold
- Smartphone Changes Are Afoot in China
- Thursday Q&A: Is Microsoft an Apple competitor?
We are quickly approaching Apple earnings (October 27th). Next week we will begin to move through Apple's product categories and my earnings model to discuss my 4Q15 estimates and outlook for 2016. Today's email takes a look at the smartphone market in the U.S. and China. Upon closer examination, they are incredibly different from each other. In the U.S., Samsung has quite the stronghold that shows few signs of falling apart. In China, there is much change taking place among the leading smartphone manufacturers. We take a look at where the easiest iPhone growth may come from in each market for 2016. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the topic of Microsoft vs. Apple compeititon.
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Apple's New Product Theory, Good Design at Apple
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's New Product Theory
- Good Design at Apple
Apple updated its iMac line yesterday and Phil Schiller sat down with Steven Levy to discuss the new products. In addition, Schiller also revealed a completely new theory for explaining how all of Apple's products fit together. We take a deep-dive into his comments and what they mean for Apple and future products. We then talk about good design at Apple and why it is so important when discussing Apple's success at marginalizing industries.
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The Full Jony Ive Talk at Vanity Fair, Dell Wants out of the PC Business, Lyft Partners with Hertz
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Full Jony Ive Talk at Vanity Fair
- Dell Wants out of the PC Business
- Lyft Partners with Hertz
We kick off today's email by discussing a few additional themes of Jony Ive's talk at the Vanity Fair New Establishment Summit. The full video of his talk was recently released and his comments on Apple design are quite valuable when analyzing how Apple thinks about the world. We then shift over to one recent piece of news related to Dell and the PC business that many may have brushed over when thinking about the Dell/EMC merger. We conclude with Lyft partnering with Hertz and why such actions are worth keeping an eye on when it comes to Apple's ambitions in the auto space.
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Elon Musk Is Frustrated by Apple, Mac Expected to Hold Its Own in Declining PC Market
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Elon Musk Is Frustrated by Apple
- Mac Expected to Hold Its Own in Declining PC Market
Today's email is focused on Elon Musk's latest public comments on Apple. When comparing his interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt to previous comments about Apple, it's clear something has changed between Tesla and Apple. I look at Musk's comments as containing frustration, indicative of how much change is about to hit the automobile industry. We conclude by briefly touching upon Gartner and IDC Mac estimates for FY4Q15 and what they may mean for actual Mac sales.
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Jony Ive Is Finding His Stride, Kantar Points to Continued iPhone Momentum in August, Thursday Q&A (Project Titan vs. GM and Uber)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Jony Ive Is Finding His Stride
- Kantar Points to Continued iPhone Momentum in August
- Thursday Q&A: With Project Titan, is Apple looking to disrupt GM or Uber?
We kick off today's email by looking at Jony Ive's talk at the Vanity Fair New Establishment Summit where he talked about lessons learned from Steve Jobs and his new role at Apple. We were able to get a few new ideas as to how Jony thinks about products and why his promotion may turn out to be one of the bigger improvements in his career. We then shift over to the latest Kantar smartphone report and dig through all of the numbers and percentages to see how the iPhone performed over the summer. We conclude with Thursday Q&A, which asks if Project Titan will ultimately disrupt auto manufacturers like GM or network companies like Uber.
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Microsoft's Sleight of Hand, Xiaomi Demonstrates Why a Cheap iPhone Makes Little Sense
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Microsoft's Sleight of Hand
- Xiaomi Demonstrates Why a Cheap iPhone Makes Little Sense
We begin today's email by going over Microsoft's event in NYC yesterday. While there was a lot of new hardware announced for Windows 10, the most intriguing aspect of the keynote was what wasn't said. Microsoft's sleight of hand was on full display. We analyze the event from Apple's perspective. We then shift over to Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun who recently did an interview with WSJ China. While his goal was to diffuse concerns over Xiaomi's future, he ended up validating Apple's strategy of bypassing the low-end of the smartphone market with a cheap iPhone.
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Thoughts on Apple Watch, Apple Watch Ads Are Getting Better, Apple Campus 3?
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Apple Watch (new monthly and quarterly sales projections as well as estimates on ASP and margins)
- Apple Watch Ads Are Getting Better
- Apple Campus 3 in Sunnyvale?
We begin today's email with Apple Watch, taking a deep-dive into why I think the Watch is being underestimated. We go over my new Apple Watch monthly and quarterly sales projections as well as thoughts on average selling price and margins. Sticking with Apple Watch, Apple unveiled new Apple Watch commercials last evening, and they are the best ads yet for the product. We take a closer look at why they are so good. We conclude by looking at Apple's most recent real estate transaction and a few observations I had on the deal.
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Business Insider Sells in Changing Online Media Landscape, Apple Music Risk Is Increasing, Apple Acquires VocalIQ as a Gift for Siri
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Business Insider Sells in Changing Online Media Landscape
- Apple Music Risk Is Increasing
- Apple Acquires VocalIQ as a Gift for Siri
We kick things off this week by looking at the Business Insider sale to Axel Springer and the broader implications to the online media space. Apple's bet with Apple News is built on two assumptions about online media, one of which appears to be taking place. We then shift over to Apple Music. Jimmy Iovine gave an interview with the LA Times and reading in between the lines, we can reach a few assumptions about how Apple Music is doing. We conclude with news that Apple acquired VocalIQ. Even though Siri has come a long way, Apple is just getting started with the personal assistant.
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Something Feels off with Google, iOS Adoption Trends, Thursday Q&A (Apple Watch vs. Ultra-Luxury Swiss Watch Industry)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Something Feels off with Google
- iOS Adoption Trends
- Thursday Q&A: How does the Apple Watch make the ultra-luxury Swiss watch industry irrelevant?
Google held its latest keynote this past Tuesday focused on new Nexus phones and other hardware initiatives. Something felt off about the event. When looking at recent smartphone trends more broadly, it's clear something is going on at Google. We then shift over to iOS adoption rates to see how things look with iOS 9 having been out for two weeks. We conclude with Thursday Q&A which takes a closer look at how Apple Watch will make the ultra-luxury watch market irrelevant.
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Tim Cook Speaks at BoxWorks, TAG Heuer and the $1,800 Connected Watch, Thoughts on the Tesla Model X
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Tim Cook Speaks at BoxWorks
- TAG Heuer Will Sell a $1,800 Connected Watch
- Thoughts on the Tesla Model X
Tim Cook spoke with Aaron Levie of Box yesterday at the BoxWorks conference. We go over his comments and discuss my latest observations on Apple's enterprise play more broadly. We then shift to Jean-Claude Biver of TAG Heuer who announced pricing for his connected smartwatch. TAG Heuer is shaping up to be a good proxy for the strategy the Swiss Watch industry wants to take against Apple Watch. We conclude with some thoughts about Tesla's Model X which was unveiled last night/earlier this morning.
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iPhone Opening Weekend Sales Verdict, Not Falling into the Big Company Trap, Two iPhone Tidbits
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- iPhone Opening Weekend Sales Verdict
- Not Falling into the Big Company Trap
- New iPhones Appear to be Water Resistant & Samsung/TSMC Share A9 Orders
We kick things off by going over Apple's press release yesterday indicating more than 13 million iPhones were sold over opening weekend. We take a deep dive into the numbers with some thoughts on iPhone sales numbers for the quarter just ended and Apple's FY1Q16. Next, we go over one way Apple is looking to avoid some of the pitfalls big companies make when coming up with new products and how this has already shaped Apple Car development to date. We conclude with a few iPhone 6s / 6s Plus tidbits including the devices being water resistant and Samsung/TSMC apparently sharing A9 processor orders.
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Nike's Strength in China Bodes Well for Apple, Pebble's Strategy Against Apple Watch, iPhone 6s Launch Observations
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Nike's Strength in China Bodes Well for Apple
- Pebble's Strategy Against Apple Watch
- iPhone 6s Launch Observations
We begin today's email by going over Nike's earnings report from late last week. The company reported strong results including strength in Greater China, which serves as the second bit of evidence that we have suggesting fears about Apple's performance in the country may be overblown. Next, we take a look at Pebble's strategy to compete against Apple Watch. There are a number of holes in the company's plan. We conclude with some observations from the iPhone 6s launch this past Friday, including additional thoughts on the iPhone Upgrade Program.
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