Apple’s U.S. Manufacturing Mess, Thoughts on Apple Bringing Manufacturing Back to the U.S., Apple Signs Peanuts
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple’s U.S. Manufacturing Mess
Thoughts on Apple Bringing Manufacturing Back to the U.S.
Apple Signs Peanuts
We kick off today’s email with Apple and manufacturing. The NYT recently published an article about Apple’s problematic past with building Macs in the U.S. We use the article as an opportunity to have a broader discussion about Apple’s current outsourcing strategy, which includes relying on contract manufacturers to assemble its products. We go over the three primary items Apple would need to address in order to have any chance of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple signing a deal to produce new Peanuts video content.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple Unveils U.S. Expansion Plans, Apple Expands Medical Staff, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Unveils U.S. Expansion Plans
Apple Expands Medical Staff
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on Apple’s U.S. expansion plans. We go over the differences between Apple’s and Amazon’s approach to finding and securing a new campus. The discussion also includes how Apple’s new campus and larger offices around the U.S. fit in with Apple Park and the broader Apple apparatus. The email then turns to news of Apple having dozens of medical professionals on staff. We go over why health intrigues Apple. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Is Apple promoting trade-ins for iPhone XR, XS, and XS Max as a tactical move to get customers off Qualcomm chips as fast as possible?
Is there a connection between Apple deciding not to disclose iPhone unit sales and announcements regarding reduced orders for iPhone components? Did Apple make the disclosure change knowing AAPL shares would decline, making the stock buyback cheaper? Does this open Apple up for potential legal issues?
Why does each individual supplier cut result in additional pressure on Apple shares? Aren’t all the reported cuts part of the same decline in sales/orders?
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Key Apple Production Partners Report OK Results, Scooter Companies Hit Speed Bumps, Ad-Based Publishing Is Imploding
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Key Apple Production Partners Report OK Results
Scooter Companies Hit Speed Bumps
Ad-Based Publishing Is Imploding
We kick off today’s email with a closer look at Foxconn’s and TSMC’s November results. In particular, we go over what the results say, and don’t say, about iPhone demand. The discussion then turns to scooter companies hitting an air pocket. We also go over the major developments unfolding in the transportation space. The email concludes with Verizon’s breathtaking filing regarding Oath, its digital content division. We go over why Verizon’s disaster with digital content ends up being a symptom of a much larger problem impacting the ad-based publishing industry.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
An Apple Watch Aha Moment, Apple Unveils Updated Beddit Sleep Monitor, Stress Test Scenarios for Apple in China
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
An Apple Watch Aha Moment
Apple Unveils Updated Beddit Sleep Monitor
Stress Test Scenarios for Apple in China
We begin today’s update with a closer look at what I thought was an aha moment for Apple Watch. The discussion then turns to Apple unveiling an updated Beddit sleep monitor. We go over why Beddit was such an unusual acquisition for Apple and how sleep monitoring fits within Apple’s broader strategy. The email concludes with financial stress test scenarios that assume Apple’s fortunes in China sour. The exercise is designed to discuss what could happen to Apple financials in the event of developments such as iPhone sales being banned in China and Apple having to move its supply and manufacturing apparatus out of China.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Deep Dive into Apple’s iPhone Trade-In Promotion, Diagnosing an iPhone Problem, Apple Acquires Platoon for Apple Music
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Deep Dive into Apple’s iPhone Trade-In Promotion
Diagnosing an iPhone Problem
Apple Acquires Platoon for Apple Music
We begin today’s update with a deep dive into Apple’s iPhone trade-in promotion. We go over Apple GiveBack’s background, then turn to financial implications found with the program, including how Apple is accounting for the program costs and promotions. The discussion also goes over my takeaways from analyzing Apple’s various trade-in promotions. The data caught me by surprise. We then look at what may be unfolding in the iPhone business to lead to these various promotions. The email concludes with why Apple bought Platoon and how the acquisition fits with Apple’s broader Apple Music strategy.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Additional Thoughts on Apple Music on Echo, Apple Is Emphasizing Hardware, The Wireless Headphone Wars
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Additional Thoughts on Apple Music on Echo
Apple Is Emphasizing Hardware
The Wireless Headphone Wars
We begin today’s update with additional thoughts on Apple’s decision to make Apple Music available on Amazon Echo speakers. In particular, we cover divergent opinions when it comes to Apple services vs. hardware. The email then turns to why I think moves like bringing Apple Music to Echo actually are a sign of Apple emphasizing hardware. The discussion concludes with why I think wireless headphones have the best shot of being the battle to watch in tech land next year.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple Pushing Additional iPhone Promos, Qualcomm Goes on PR Offense Against Apple, Inside the Battle for Streaming Video Content
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Pushing Additional iPhone Promos
Qualcomm Goes on PR Offense Against Apple
Inside the Battle for Streaming Video Content
We begin today’s update with my thoughts on Apple unveiling new sales tactics and promos for iPhone. We discuss how the moves aren’t necessarily a sign of weak iPhone demand. The email then turns to some questionable comments from Qualcomm and why I think it’s part of a PR battle against Apple. We conclude with the content wars and the two paths forward for a video streaming company.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
A Cheaper Apple Stock Buyback, Apple Supplier Cirrus Logic Issues Revenue Warning, Interest in AirPods Exploding Higher
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
A Cheaper Apple Stock Buyback
Apple Supplier Cirrus Logic Issues Revenue Warning
Interest in AirPods Exploding Higher
We jump into today’s update with additional comments on the latest Above Avalon article, “Leveraging Apple's Share Buyback.” In particular, we take a deeper look at the numbers and Apple’s overall philosophy when it comes to buyback. The discussion then turns to Cirrus Logic, an Apple supplier, issuing a revenue warning on smartphone weakness. We go over what the news says, and doesn’t say, about iPhone demand. The email concludes with AirPods and how customer interest in the product is exploding higher. We go over the data, including what I think is behind the surge in interest versus last year. We also discuss my AirPods sales estimates.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple Bringing Apple Music to Echo Speakers, Apple’s Services Goals, A More Confident Apple Music Strategy
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Bringing Apple Music to Echo Speakers
Apple’s Services Goals
A More Confident Apple Music Strategy
Today’s email is a deep dive into Apple’s decision to make Apple Music available on Amazon Echo speakers. We go over my thoughts on the news, and what it says and doesn’t say about HomePod sales, Apple Music, and Apple’s services strategy.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple Comments on iPhone XR Sales, A Sign of Apple Product Sales Disclosure to Come?, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Comments on iPhone XR Sales
A Sign of Apple Product Sales Disclosure to Come?
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email with a closer look at Apple VP Greg Joswiak’s comments about iPhone XR sales. We go over both what Joz said, and didn’t say, about iPhone XR demand. In addition, we look at what his comments suggest about the overall iPhone sales mix heading into 2019. The discussion then turns to the topic of how Apple may address false narratives regarding product demand mix without providing unit sales data. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Berkshire vs. Apple. Why has Berkshire Hathaway’s stock remained near its all-time high while its largest equity investment, Apple, has fallen by more than 20%?
iPhone 8 vs. iPhone XR. What is the implication for Apple’s iPhone strategy given an uptick in iPhone 8 sales after the XR launch? In a mature market with late adopters, does this limit Apple’s ability to push the market forward and take risks, such as with the Face ID/all-screen design?
Screen Sizes. The iPhone X performed very well at $999, although the XR doesn't appear to be selling any better at $749. Could Apple have been too aggressive with larger screens at the mid-priced segment? Is it possible that the mid-tier prefers more size options?
Buyback Pace. How much leeway does management have quarter to quarter for share buyback? Given the decline in Apple's share price, could we see an uptick in the buyback pace?
Buyback’s Impact on EPS. How would you think about Apple's share buyback and the lower share price when it comes to 1Q19 EPS expectations? How could a lower share price and/or larger buyback affect EPS?
Marketing. Why has there been such little marketing for some of Apple's new products?
iPhone Sales. What would a worst case scenario look like for iPhone sales?
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Inside the Apple News Machine, YouTube Backs Away from Paid Subscriptions, Apple Partners with A24 for Movies
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Inside the Apple News Machine
YouTube Backs Away from Paid Subscriptions
Apple Partners with A24 for Movies
We kick off today’s email by going over the NYT’s recent Apple News profile. The discussion includes why I think Apple News is a symbol of how Apple thinks differently about services. We then turn to the video space and YouTube backing away from paid subscriptions. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple partnering with indie studio A24 to produce movies.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Mosaic Theory for iPhone Order Cuts, Initial Thoughts on Apple’s iPhone Strategy in 2019, Apple’s Answer to Overserving iPhone Users
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Mosaic Theory for iPhone Order Cuts
Initial Thoughts on Apple’s iPhone Strategy in 2019
Apple’s Answer to Overserving iPhone Users
We begin today’s update by discussing my strategy for using the mosaic theory to come up with a good handle on the current iPhone demand environment. The email then turns to my initial thoughts on Apple’s iPhone strategy in 2019. We go over my stance on various iPhone models and pricing options. The discussion concludes with a closer look at how Apple has been planning for the era when iPhone users become content with less.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple Cuts iPhone XR Pricing in Japan, Apple Resumes iPhone X Production, Canary in an iPhone Coal Mine
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Cuts iPhone XR Pricing in Japan
Apple Resumes iPhone X Production
Canary in an iPhone Coal Mine
The iPhone news cycle continues to come in strong. Today’s email will be dedicated to discussing the latest developments.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Deep Dive into Apple Product Sales Estimates, Apple as a Toolmaker, Valuing a Toolmaker
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Deep Dive into Apple Product Sales Estimates
Apple as a Toolmaker
Valuing a Toolmaker
In today’s update, we continue the discussion about my new Apple financial estimates for FY2019 and FY2020. In particular, we look at my Apple product sales estimates and how Apple is positioned financially from a product viewpoint in 2019 and 2020. Above Avalon members have access to my working Apple earnings model. The discussion then turns to the idea of Apple as a toolmaker and what it means in terms of valuing the company.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
New Apple Financial Estimates, Thoughts on AAPL Valuation, Legacy Watchmakers Still Dragging Feet
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
New Apple Financial Estimates
Thoughts on AAPL Valuation
Legacy Watchmakers Still Dragging Feet
In today’s update, we will go over my revised Apple financial estimates for FY2019. I am also introducing my FY2020 estimates. Above Avalon members have access to my working Apple earnings model. The discussion then turns to AAPL valuation. Given the past few weeks of market volatility, there have been some noteworthy updates on the valuation front. We conclude with a look at the latest efforts from legacy watchmakers to compete with Apple Watch.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.