Above Avalon Episode 175: iPhone at a Billion

According to Neil’s estimate, Apple surpassed the billion iPhone users milestone last month. With the iPhone upgrade cycle approaching a plateau of four to five years, Apple is well-positioned to report record iPhone unit sales. In episode 175, Neil discusses the current state of the iPhone business as it surpasses a billion users. Topic include: iPhone unit sales, iPhone sales mix broken out by iPhone upgrades and new users, the iPhone installed base, Apple’s top priorities for iPhone, peak iPhone, and more.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

A Billion iPhone Users

The Number of iPhone Users / The iPhone Upgrade Cycle

Estimating Total Number of iPhone Users

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Above Avalon Episode 172: Hidden Acceleration

Apple’s underlying ecosystem strength has been gaining momentum for years - it’s just been masked by people holding on to their iPhones for longer before upgrading. In episode 172, Neil quantifies how much Apple’s ecosystem is growing. Additional topics include the problem found with using overall revenue trends to analyze Apple growth, the Apple Services myth, and why non-iPhone revenue growth matters so much.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Apple’s Ecosystem Growth Is Accelerating

Above Avalon Episode 170: Pulling Away From the Competition

Above Avalon Episode 171: The Apple Ecosystem

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Above Avalon Episode 165: The iPad's First Decade

There was no shortage of writers, pundits, and industry analysts using the iPad’s 10th anniversary las month to give eulogies for the product in terms of its inability to be revolutionary, grab momentum, or even just meet expectations. In episode 165, Neil discusses his perspective on the iPad’s first decade and why we shouldn’t feel bad for the iPad. Additional topics include a different way of looking at the iPad unveiling in 2010, how the iPad foreshadowed iPhone success, how Apple pivoted the iPad, the iPad’s primary problem today, and how the iPad’s value is found in letting the product be itself.

Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Don’t Feel Bad for the iPad (Above Avalon)

The iPad Awkwardly Turns 10 (Daring Fireball)

The Tragic iPad (Stratechery)

iPad at 10. An affair forever (Om)

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Above Avalon Episode 163: A Revolution on the Wrist

In addition to being a sales success, the Apple Watch has ushered in a paradigm shift in computing. In episode 163, Neil discusses how the Apple Watch is fundamentally changing the way we use technology. Additional topics include paradigm shifts, Apple Watch sales, Apple’s new Apple Watch Connected initiative, stationary smart speakers as extensions of existing products, and Neil’s new framework for recognizing paradigm shifts in computing. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

Apple Watch and a Paradigm Shift in Computing (Above Avalon weekly article)

Above Avalon Episode 118: Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future (Above Avalon podcast)

Apple Watch Unit Sales and Installed Base Calculations (Above Avalon daily update)

The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products (Above Avalon weekly article)

A Stationary Smart Speaker Mirage (Above Avalon weekly article)

Product Vision: How Apple Thinks About the World (Above Avalon report)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (163 episodes) is available here.

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Above Avalon Episode 162: The Apple Question

At the start of a new year, there is less value found in coming up with predictions than there is in looking at questions facing the company. In episode 162, Neil goes over his list of questions for Apple in 2020, and the discussion culminates with one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity. Additional topics include why predictions contain so little value, the number of Apple users, and Apple in emerging markets. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.   

Links:

The Big Question Now Facing Apple (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

Above Avalon Episode 160: Let’s Talk “Apple Tax” (Above Avalon Podcast)

Above Avalon Episode 143: Look at the Capex (Above Avalon Podcast)

Above Avalon Episode 161: Apple’s Spectacular Year on Wall Street (Above Avalon Podcast)

Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy (Above Avalon Report)

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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (162 episodes) is available here.

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