The New iPod Touch is an Updated iPod, AAPL Earnings Preview (Continued), Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • The New iPod Touch is an Updated iPod - After looking at the most recent iPod sales, it is clear why Apple updated the iPod touch. However, many are making errors when arriving at long-term implications from the change, including comparing the iPod touch to an iPhone.
  • AAPL Earnings Preview - Guidance, Capital Management, Wall Street Expectations - We conclude our detailed preview of Apple's earnings next week by discussing guidance, buyback, and how Wall Street is positioning itself ahead of earnings.
  • Thursday Q&A - We discuss two questions submitted by members. This week's topics include whether a higher dividend payout ratio would help Apple's valuation and what Apple can do to change investors' perception and a higher P/E multiple. 

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Expecting Another Strong iPhone Quarter, Live TV Will be Apple TV's Killer Feature, Burberry Executives in High Demand

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Expecting Another Strong iPhone Quarter - I discuss my latest iPhone sales estimate. China is shaping up to be the driving force of 40% iPhone unit growth year-over-year.
  • Live TV Will be Apple TV's Killer Feature - We take a closer look at how offering live TV via more than 850 affiliate stations could be a very big deal for Apple's new video streaming service. 
  • Burberry Executives are in High Demand - Following news that Tesla hired a senior Burberry executive, we look into what may be going on with technology luxury retail and how it will impact Apple.

We kick things off by going over my iPhone unit sales estimate for Apple's upcoming earnings. It is shaping up to be another strong quarter thanks to China. Next, we shift over to the latest report from the New York Post about Apple looking to position local TV programming as a key feature of its rumored TV/video services. We conclude by discussing why Burberry executives seem to be in such high demand in technology with news that Tesla has hired a senior Burberry executive to lead North American sales. 

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Apple Earnings Preview Part One - Apple Watch, Mac, and iPad

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Establishing Quarterly Apple Watch Sales Estimate - Even though Apple will lump in Apple Watch revenue with Other Products, there will be ways of reaching Apple Watch unit sales estimate. After discussing Apple Watch supply/demand, I provide an easy cheat sheet to convert Other Products revenue to Apple Watch sales estimate.
  • Setting Quarterly Mac Sales Expectations - The Mac continues to take share in a category that is struggling. We discuss Gartner/IDC reports and how they have matched up with actual Mac shipments and what the latest reports may point to for the latest Mac sales. 
  • iPad Sales Continue to Look Weak - We discuss the iPad line and where things may be headed from here. 

We kick off today's email by going over my thoughts on Apple Watch sales estimates for the quarter. I included a "cheat sheet" to easily distinguish Apple Watch sales from the Other Product revenue line item that Apple will report next week. We next shift over to the Mac category, in which all signs point to continued solid sales momentum this past quarter. We conclude with the iPad and a few reasons why sales will continue to be on the weak side. You will find that much of the discussion today involves the products themselves, which I think is more useful than strictly talking dollars and cents given the iPhone's oversized impact on Apple's earnings.

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The iPhone is Taking Over Apple, Apple is Producing Music Videos, The U.S. Government is Sniffing Around the App Store

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • The iPhone is Taking Over Apple (Inside Commentary) - Apple will be the iPhone company for the foreseeable future. Even though the product presents certain risks and benefits to the company, Apple's most significant risk factors aren't related to quarterly sales gyrations caused by the iPhone representing 80% of earnings. 
  • Apple is Producing Music Videos - We discuss the Pitchfork article that Apple is producing a few music videos in-house. What does this suggest about Apple's future plans and producing its own content?
  • The U.S. Government is Sniffing Around Apple's App Store - The FTC is taking a closer look at the complaints that Apple's App Store is uncompetitive to rivals.  We take a closer look at which restrictions some third-parties are not happy with.

Today, we start by going over how the iPhone is taking over Apple. While Apple faces risks associated with the iPhone, the company's largest risks have nothing to do with the iPhone. We next discuss Pitchfork's report that Apple is producing music videos and what that may mean about Apple's future in content creation. Finally, we conclude with the FTC looking at complaints from third-parties saying the App Store is uncompetitive and why it may be a tough argument to win when going up against Apple.

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Spotify Seems Desperate, Apple Plans Record iPhone Production, Q&A Thursday

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Spotify Seems Desperate - Not only is Spotify is seemingly battling Apple Music, but their latest move to go up against Apple's App Store smells of desperation. 
  • Apple Plans Record iPhone Production - We take a closer look at the WSJ report indicating Apple is planning on producing 85-90 million units of two new iPhone models and what it suggests for Apple's iPhone business. 
  • Q&A Thursday - I answer a few questions from members. This week's questions include what Wall Street looks for in AAPL to determine if it is a buy or sell, Apple's sensitivity to interest rates, ResearchKit, and why Apple is embracing human curation.

Today's first story deals with Spotify and what increasingly looks like moves of desperation being taken by the leading music streaming service. Next, we shift over to the WSJ story that includes the first supply data for the new iPhones expected to be announced in approximately two months. We conclude with the second installment of Q&A Thursday. 

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Quiet Apple Watch Tables (Continued), Chinese Stock Market Crash Impact on Apple, Showtime Arrives on Apple TV

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Quiet Apple Watch Tables in Apple Retail Stores (Continued) - After making one additional point about those quiet Apple Watch tables in Apple retail stores, we discuss the Marketwatch report saying Apple Watch is flopping and how to approach Slice Intelligence data. 
  • Chinese Stock Market Crash Impact on Apple - I discuss my experience with the 2008 and 2009 U.S. financial crisis, before going over the Chinese stock market crash and what the ongoing situation means for AAPL. 
  • Showtime Arrives on Apple TV - The future of TV is actually closer than one would expect and it is looking expensive. 

We kick off today's email with a few additional comments on those quiet Apple Watch tables and a new "report" from MarketWatch making the rounds indicating the Apple Watch is truly flopping. Next, we shift over to the developing situation in China as various stock indexes continue to crash. While one assumes this can't be a good situation for Apple given its exposure to China, there is much more to the story than what meets the eye. We conclude with Showtime coming to Apple TV and how a la carte TV is quickly becoming an expensive option for some consumers.

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App Store Economics, Empty Apple Watch Tables, Samsung Preannounces Weak Earnings

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • App Store Economics: Troubled Indie Business Models - We take a closer look at Brent Simmons' piece about the App Store becoming an environment in which it is too difficult for indie artists to compete. I use a real-world example of a funded app company to show what is really happening in the iOS ecosystem. 
  • Empty Apple Watch Tables in Apple Stores - I continue to have people tell me that they are surprised with the lack of people around Apple Watch tables. Is this something to be concerned about? What is going on?
  • Samsung Preannounces Weak Earnings - Samsung's issues may be deeper than just market dynamics.

We kick things off by diving into the topic of App Store economics and the recent string of posts from iOS developers, beginning with Brent Simmons, that look at the App Store environment and conclude the indie app business model is in big trouble. We then shift over to one topic that has been on my mind lately concerning empty Apple Watch tables in Apple retail stores. We conclude with a quick overview of Samsung's earnings preannouncement. 

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Apple Music is Very Apple, Casio Wants to Sell a Smartwatch

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple Music is Very Apple
  • Casio Wants to Sell a Smartwatch

Welcome to a new week. We kick things off closing up some loose ends with Apple Music after last week's launch. Think of this as looking at the big picture. Apple is taking a big risk with Apple Music, giving consumers something that they may want before they knew they wanted it. We next go over news that Casio is the latest watchmaker targeting the smartwatch market, which is somewhat ironic news given the company's past as one of the first to market a "smart" watch. 

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Apple is Growing Faster than Xiaomi, Trent Reznor Talks Apple Music, Q&A Thursday

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple is Growing Faster than Xiaomi
  • Trent Reznor Talks Apple Music
  • Q&A Thursday (answering questions from Above Avalon members about everything and anything)

We kick things off by looking at the latest sales numbers from Xiaomi and discovering an interesting development that has been occurring in 2015. Next, we take a closer look at Trent Reznor's interview about Apple Music with Pitchfork. We conclude with the inaugural Thursday Q&A, a list of questions submitted by all of you concerning various topics and subjects. 

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Apple Music Observations, Android Switcher Rates Bode Well for iPhone Sales

Today's Above Avalon stories:

  • Apple Music Observations
  • Android Switcher Rates Bode Well for iPhone Sales

We begin today's email with Apple Music and observations and notes about Apple's entry into the music streaming era. It is clear that Apple did their homework, but it is hard to ignore some of the risks and future problems. Then we will switch over to the latest report from Kantar, which contains data on Android switcher rates. With Apple earnings coming up, this data is quite useful when contemplating iPhone sales trends for the past three months.

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Apple Music's Problem, Reflections on iPhone's 8th Anniversary, Greece's Impact on Apple

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Apple Music's Problem
  • Reflections on iPhone's 8th Anniversary
  • Greece's Impact on Apple

Today, we kick things off by diving a bit deeper into my article about Apple Music's "problem" concerning the $10 per month price being too high. Next, we take a few moments to reflect on the iPhone's 8th anniversary, which led me to think of a few things about what the iPhone means to Apple and if Apple will ever have another "iPhone" in the future. We conclude by talking about Greece and how to think about ongoing economic turmoil in Greece and Europe when thinking about Apple.

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Attaching a Price to Apple's Free Music Trial, The Big Bet Behind Beats 1, New iPhones Entering Production

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Attaching a Price to Apple's Free Music Trial
  • The Big Bet Behind Beats 1
  • New iPhones Entering Production

We are still in Apple Music mode with tomorrow's launch. Apple signed deals with the indie labels after deciding to pay music rights holders during the three month trial period. With new information in hand, I wanted to dive a bit deeper and attach a price tag to Apple's music trial period. Next, Zane Lowe was profiled by the New York Times. Beats 1 is increasingly being positioned as a key aspect of Apple Music which has implications going forward. Finally, we have the first reports of new iPhones going into production, so we take a look at how this years's iPhone update cycle is looking.

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Apple's Stock Buyback Program Primer

Today's Daily Update is all about Apple's stock buyback. The email is broken into seven parts with the beginning dedicated much more to talking about share buyback in general terms, and then the ending focusing on Apple's stock buyback. With $194 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities on the balance sheet, Apple's stock buyback program is very important, and this email is meant to be used as a primer to become familiar with Apple's share buyback. 

The seven "chapters":

  1. What is Stock Buyback?
  2. Why Does a Company Buy Back Shares?
  3. Clues Found in Buyback Programs
  4. The Two Ways Apple Buys Back Stock
  5. Stock Buyback Disclosure
  6. Everything There is to Know About Apple's Stock Buyback
  7. My View on Apple's Stock Buyback

These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.

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Google's Early Approach to Take on Apple Watch, Improving iOS 9 Adoption is High Priority, One Drawback of Holding $194 Billion of Cash

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Google's Early Approach to Take on Apple Watch
  • Improving iOS 9 Adoption is High Priority at Apple
  • One Drawback of Holding $194 Billion of Cash

We kick things off today by talking about Google's new health-tracking wristband and why health is shaping up to be a potential competitive tool to go up against Apple Watch. We next discuss one new feature found in the second beta of iOS 9 yesterday focused on improving iOS 9 adoption rates. Evidence is adding up that management has placed improving OS adoption rates as a high priority. We conclude by discussing one drawback Apple faces by holding so much cash on its balance sheet.
 

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Just Doing What's Right, The Symbolism Behind the Gold iPhone

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Just Doing What's Right
  • The Symbolism Behind the Gold iPhone

With much of the weekend excitement surrounding Apple Music winding down, we first take a look at how the past two days have revealed quite a bit about how Apple leadership thinks about problems and mistakes, including what may be the driving force behind the management team these days. We then move over to a recent report that said Tim Cook confirmed the gold iPhone was made with China in mind. When you look back at the gold iPhone, it becomes clear how Apple ended up defying most critics and pundits and instead of selling cheap iPhones to gain market share, went in the opposite direction, embracing luxury with gold as the biggest symbol yet of that strategy.

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