Thinking About the Big Picture for Apple, iPhone Launch Weekends are Getting Silly
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thinking About the Big Picture for Apple
- iPhone Launch Weekends are Getting Silly
We kick off today's email by discussing the big picture for Apple. With Apple's 2015 event calendar winding down, it's a good time to take a step back and see where things stand and where the company is likely headed. We then shift over to iPhone launch weekend sales. Apple released a short statement regarding how iPhone pre-orders were trending. The practice of releasing pre-order and opening weekend sales is getting old and is actually a bit silly. We take a closer look at why opening weekend numbers are historically pretty useless from a financial modeling perspective.
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Apple Watch Hermès Collection is Intriguing, 3D Touch is a Game Changer
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Watch Hermès Collection is Intriguing
- 3D Touch is a Game Changer
Today's email is focused on two subjects from last week's keynote that Apple felt most compelled to comment on publicly: the Apple/Hermès partnership and 3D Touch. Although Apple Watch did not get too much post-keynote analysis, Apple's decision to partner with Hermès is quite intriguing and helpful when looking at how Apple thinks about the wearable category. We then shift over to the Bloomberg article on 3D Touch, which turned into an entire profile on how Apple is guided by design. 3D touch was the most important product feature announced last week with many long-term implications on Apple's product line.
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Apple's September Event: Thoughts and Observations
Today's Above Avalon story:
- Apple's September Event: Thoughts and Observations
Apple’s keynote certainly lived up to expectations with a great deal of information packed into a roughly two-hour presentation. Many of the themes presented yesterday matched very closely with what we have been discussing over the past few months. At the same time, I do think there were plenty of new insights that will help cultivate new perspectives on a number of topics.
I consider today’s email to be the start of a discussion that will transpire over a number of weeks and months. There really is that much to talk about. I wanted to focus today’s email on my list of notes and initial observations from the event as they are still fresh in my mind. We will continue this discussion next week.
Sections:
- Summary
- The Venue
- Attending the Keynote In-Person
- The Presentation
- iPhone
- iPad
- Apple Watch
- Apple TV
- Full Notes
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Periscope on Your TV, The $50 Amazon Tablet
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Periscope on Your TV
- The $50 Amazon Tablet
Today's email is focused on two news stories that have a connection to Apple's keynote and help to provide some perspective on Apple TV and iPad. The first story has to do with TechCrunch hearing that Periscope is developing an app for Apple TV. We discuss how such news can be a big deal for the idea of a video-consuming platform. We then focus on news that Amazon will ship a $50 tablet. After giving up at the high-end, Amazon wants to try again at the even more difficult low-end of the tablet market. The story goes to show why Apple feels much more comfortable selling premium experiences, rather than just low-priced gadgets, to consumers.
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Apple Keynote Preview
Today's Above Avalon story:
Apple Keynote Preview
- WWDC vs. September Keynote
- New iPhones
- New Apple TV
- New iPads (Maybe)
- Wall Street's Perspective
- Wildcards
- Big Picture
Today's email is all about setting the stage for tomorrow's keynote. It is important to take a step back and recognize Apple's goal for this September event. After discussing some observations and thoughts about the iPhone, iPad, and Apple TV, we take a closer look at several parts of the keynote that may impact AAPL on Wall Street. We conclude with a few wildcards to look out for and some overall themes.
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Global Smartphone Trends for July, Apple Event "Leaks," Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Global Smartphone Trends for July
- Apple Event "Leaks"
- Thursday Q&A (How is the premium email going? Spoiler: It's going great.)
We kick off today's email by discussing Kantar's latest report on smartphone trends for the three months ending in July, including new data comparing iPhone 6 and 6 Plus popularity to previous iPhone models. Next, we discuss a theory of mine concerning all of these leaks leading up to the Apple event next week. We conclude with this week's Q&A which is actually about Above Avalon Premium and how the premium email is doing after four months.
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The Apple/Cisco Partnership, Apple Watch's Biggest Competitor
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Apple/Cisco Partnership
- Apple Watch's Biggest Competitor
Today we begin by taking a closer look at the Apple/Cisco partnership. It is obvious Apple looks at this new relationship as a key factor to its success in enterprise. We then shift over to the topic of Apple Watch competition. After a few months on the market, it does seem like Apple may have its first genuine Apple Watch competitor.
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Apple's Original Programming Temptation, The Android Smartwatch Army
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Original Programming Temptation
- The Android Smartwatch Army
We begin today's email by discussing the Variety report on Apple considering producing its own original video programming. While the temptation is likely real, I hold long-standing doubt that owning content is the right strategy for Apple in this environment. We then turn to Android Wear and why the smartwatch platform reminds me of Android's early attempts at competing with the iPad. There are a few things to think about when competing with Apple Watch and I'm not convinced Android Wear has the answers.
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Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Intrigue, Apple in Washington
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Intrigue
- Apple Takes Washington
Apple sent out invites to its September 9th keynote. I will be attending the event. Accordingly, we kick things off by taking a closer look at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium, the venue for Apple's keynote. The building stands out from the type of buildings Apple has traditionally relied on to host Apple keynotes. We discuss a few things that may point to what kind of event is planned for the large venue. Next, we discuss the Politico Magazine article about Tim Cook and Apple once again embracing Washington and politics. There is much to keep in mind when thinking about Apple and Washington in the future.
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Jeff Bezos Raises the White Flag, The Allure of Cheap Smartphones, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Jeff Bezos Raises the White Flag
- The Allure of Cheap Smartphones
- Thursday Q&A (Why did Sprint's first bet with iPhone not work out?)
We kick things off with news that Amazon is scaling back its consumer hardware ambitions. I was always skeptical of the strategy. After going over a bit of history as to where Amazon went wrong, we discuss what this announcement suggests about the current state of the consumer hardware industry. Next, we talk about Obi Worldphone, John Sculley's smartphone start-up and the allure of cheap smartphones. The dream may be real, but reality is far from ideal. We conclude with Thursday Q&A which takes a look at why Sprint's first deal with iPhone didn't turn around Sprint's fortunes.
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Apple is Learning from Best Buy, The Cable Bundle's Future
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple is Learning from Best Buy
- The Cable Bundle's Futur
There was big news out of Best Buy yesterday as the company is accelerating its Apple Watch rollout due to strong demand. We take a closer look at this news and why I think Apple may be rethinking a few things about Apple Watch retail as a result. Yesterday I published an Above Avalon post about the idea of Apple destroying the big cable bundle with a leaner bundle. Today, we take a deep dive into why the video bundle is good for consumers, why I don't think bundle alternatives like direct to consumer or pay per episode will work, and what needs to be done to make the bundle relevant in a mobile world.
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The Tim Cook Email Read Around the World, Clues Apple Won't Buy Tesla, Apple Marketing to Embrace Vlogs
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Tim Cook Email Read Around the World
- Clues Apple Won't Buy Tesla
- Apple Marketing To Embrace Vlogs
Tim Cook emailed CNBC's Jim Cramer about China. We take a closer look at the email and why it was such a big deal. We then shift over to a growing number of clues that continue to point to Apple not buying Tesla (or any other legacy car manufacturer). Such deals not only make little sense, but would likely cause major problems for Apple. We conclude with a deeper look at news that Apple is planning to embrace vlogging by working with a well-known vlogger, Louis Cole. I think this is a great move by Apple.
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Thoughts on Friday's Stock Market Move and AAPL Drop, Apple Valuation Metrics, China Mobile Subscriber Numbers
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Friday's Stock Market Move and AAPL Drop
- Apple Valuation Metrics (Base and bear case using my 2016 estimates)
- China Mobile Subscriber Numbers
The stock market continues to undergo an incredible amount of volatility, and early indicators point to another wild week. We kick things off by taking a closer look at what is going on in this market and discussing some observations I'm seeing with AAPL shares. We then shift over to AAPL valuation metrics, going over both base and bear cases. We conclude with a closer look at recent China Mobile subscriber numbers. Data would suggest the iPhone is indeed a primary driver of China Mobile's 4G strength with 2015 looking like a pivotal year in terms of smartphone growth in China.
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The iPhone's Future, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
The iPhone's Future
- Too Much Focus on the Near-Term
- The iPhone's Changing Role in Our Lives
- Form Factor Optimization
- Addressing Price Layers
- Changing Resource Allocation
- About that Watch...
Along with covering the latest stories impacting Apple, one of my goals with this email is to discuss original topics and ideas that help understand how Apple looks at the world. One benefit of a daily email is we can then discuss these themes over time and not just as one-time stories. Along those lines, today's email is all about the iPhone's future. We then conclude with Thursday Q&A: Why do all of the U.S. mobile carriers seem to love the iPhone all of a sudden?
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More Evidence Apple Music is Doing Just OK, Comcast's Strategic Investments in BuzzFeed and Vox, A Closer Look at Mac Financials
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- More Evidence Apple Music is Doing Just OK
- Comcast's Latest Investment in BuzzFeed and Vox is Significant
- A Closer Look at Mac Financials
We begin today's email by going over MusicWatch's customer survey on Apple Music. There's a little bit of something for everyone in the results, but I do think we are starting to reach a general conclusion about how Apple Music is performing. We then shift over to Comcast investing in BuzzFeed and Vox in a rather significant strategic development for both companies (as well as for Comcast). There are implications here that will touch the entire media space, including Apple's plans for TV. We conclude with a closer look at the Mac business (revenue, unit sales, margin, EPS).
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