Elon Musk Is Frustrated by Apple, Mac Expected to Hold Its Own in Declining PC Market
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Elon Musk Is Frustrated by Apple
- Mac Expected to Hold Its Own in Declining PC Market
Today's email is focused on Elon Musk's latest public comments on Apple. When comparing his interview with German newspaper Handelsblatt to previous comments about Apple, it's clear something has changed between Tesla and Apple. I look at Musk's comments as containing frustration, indicative of how much change is about to hit the automobile industry. We conclude by briefly touching upon Gartner and IDC Mac estimates for FY4Q15 and what they may mean for actual Mac sales.
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Jony Ive Is Finding His Stride, Kantar Points to Continued iPhone Momentum in August, Thursday Q&A (Project Titan vs. GM and Uber)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Jony Ive Is Finding His Stride
- Kantar Points to Continued iPhone Momentum in August
- Thursday Q&A: With Project Titan, is Apple looking to disrupt GM or Uber?
We kick off today's email by looking at Jony Ive's talk at the Vanity Fair New Establishment Summit where he talked about lessons learned from Steve Jobs and his new role at Apple. We were able to get a few new ideas as to how Jony thinks about products and why his promotion may turn out to be one of the bigger improvements in his career. We then shift over to the latest Kantar smartphone report and dig through all of the numbers and percentages to see how the iPhone performed over the summer. We conclude with Thursday Q&A, which asks if Project Titan will ultimately disrupt auto manufacturers like GM or network companies like Uber.
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Microsoft's Sleight of Hand, Xiaomi Demonstrates Why a Cheap iPhone Makes Little Sense
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Microsoft's Sleight of Hand
- Xiaomi Demonstrates Why a Cheap iPhone Makes Little Sense
We begin today's email by going over Microsoft's event in NYC yesterday. While there was a lot of new hardware announced for Windows 10, the most intriguing aspect of the keynote was what wasn't said. Microsoft's sleight of hand was on full display. We analyze the event from Apple's perspective. We then shift over to Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun who recently did an interview with WSJ China. While his goal was to diffuse concerns over Xiaomi's future, he ended up validating Apple's strategy of bypassing the low-end of the smartphone market with a cheap iPhone.
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Thoughts on Apple Watch, Apple Watch Ads Are Getting Better, Apple Campus 3?
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Apple Watch (new monthly and quarterly sales projections as well as estimates on ASP and margins)
- Apple Watch Ads Are Getting Better
- Apple Campus 3 in Sunnyvale?
We begin today's email with Apple Watch, taking a deep-dive into why I think the Watch is being underestimated. We go over my new Apple Watch monthly and quarterly sales projections as well as thoughts on average selling price and margins. Sticking with Apple Watch, Apple unveiled new Apple Watch commercials last evening, and they are the best ads yet for the product. We take a closer look at why they are so good. We conclude by looking at Apple's most recent real estate transaction and a few observations I had on the deal.
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Business Insider Sells in Changing Online Media Landscape, Apple Music Risk Is Increasing, Apple Acquires VocalIQ as a Gift for Siri
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Business Insider Sells in Changing Online Media Landscape
- Apple Music Risk Is Increasing
- Apple Acquires VocalIQ as a Gift for Siri
We kick things off this week by looking at the Business Insider sale to Axel Springer and the broader implications to the online media space. Apple's bet with Apple News is built on two assumptions about online media, one of which appears to be taking place. We then shift over to Apple Music. Jimmy Iovine gave an interview with the LA Times and reading in between the lines, we can reach a few assumptions about how Apple Music is doing. We conclude with news that Apple acquired VocalIQ. Even though Siri has come a long way, Apple is just getting started with the personal assistant.
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Something Feels off with Google, iOS Adoption Trends, Thursday Q&A (Apple Watch vs. Ultra-Luxury Swiss Watch Industry)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Something Feels off with Google
- iOS Adoption Trends
- Thursday Q&A: How does the Apple Watch make the ultra-luxury Swiss watch industry irrelevant?
Google held its latest keynote this past Tuesday focused on new Nexus phones and other hardware initiatives. Something felt off about the event. When looking at recent smartphone trends more broadly, it's clear something is going on at Google. We then shift over to iOS adoption rates to see how things look with iOS 9 having been out for two weeks. We conclude with Thursday Q&A which takes a closer look at how Apple Watch will make the ultra-luxury watch market irrelevant.
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Tim Cook Speaks at BoxWorks, TAG Heuer and the $1,800 Connected Watch, Thoughts on the Tesla Model X
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Tim Cook Speaks at BoxWorks
- TAG Heuer Will Sell a $1,800 Connected Watch
- Thoughts on the Tesla Model X
Tim Cook spoke with Aaron Levie of Box yesterday at the BoxWorks conference. We go over his comments and discuss my latest observations on Apple's enterprise play more broadly. We then shift to Jean-Claude Biver of TAG Heuer who announced pricing for his connected smartwatch. TAG Heuer is shaping up to be a good proxy for the strategy the Swiss Watch industry wants to take against Apple Watch. We conclude with some thoughts about Tesla's Model X which was unveiled last night/earlier this morning.
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iPhone Opening Weekend Sales Verdict, Not Falling into the Big Company Trap, Two iPhone Tidbits
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- iPhone Opening Weekend Sales Verdict
- Not Falling into the Big Company Trap
- New iPhones Appear to be Water Resistant & Samsung/TSMC Share A9 Orders
We kick things off by going over Apple's press release yesterday indicating more than 13 million iPhones were sold over opening weekend. We take a deep dive into the numbers with some thoughts on iPhone sales numbers for the quarter just ended and Apple's FY1Q16. Next, we go over one way Apple is looking to avoid some of the pitfalls big companies make when coming up with new products and how this has already shaped Apple Car development to date. We conclude with a few iPhone 6s / 6s Plus tidbits including the devices being water resistant and Samsung/TSMC apparently sharing A9 processor orders.
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Nike's Strength in China Bodes Well for Apple, Pebble's Strategy Against Apple Watch, iPhone 6s Launch Observations
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Nike's Strength in China Bodes Well for Apple
- Pebble's Strategy Against Apple Watch
- iPhone 6s Launch Observations
We begin today's email by going over Nike's earnings report from late last week. The company reported strong results including strength in Greater China, which serves as the second bit of evidence that we have suggesting fears about Apple's performance in the country may be overblown. Next, we take a look at Pebble's strategy to compete against Apple Watch. There are a number of holes in the company's plan. We conclude with some observations from the iPhone 6s launch this past Friday, including additional thoughts on the iPhone Upgrade Program.
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Volkswagen and Customer Trust, This Year's iPhone Reviews Felt Weird, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Volkswagen and Customer Trust
- This Year's iPhone Reviews Felt Weird
- Thursday Q&A: Trying the iPhone Upgrade Program
We begin today's email with a look at the developing Volkswagen crisis involving years of lies and fraud related to its diesel engines. It's important not to miss the obvious themes at play in the auto industry, especially with technology companies running headfirst into the industry. We then shift over to iPhone 6s / 6s Plus reviews. Something felt off with this year's round of reviews. We conclude with Thursday Q&A about my plans for the iPhone Upgrade Program.
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Financial Observations from Apple's 'Hey Siri' Keynote
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Financial Observations from Apple's 'Hey Siri' Keynote
iPhone 6s / 6s Plus reviews were released yesterday. I have a few observations about them that we will go over tomorrow. Today, the topic is all about my financial observations from Apple's 'Hey Siri' event. We take apart each major product category and discuss various topics including sales estimates, average selling price (ASP) trends, and margins. Basically, we are taking a look at Apple's event with a financial eye. The email is broken up according to new product:
- iPhone 6s / 6s Plus
- Apple Watch Sport Bands / Apple Watch Hermès Collection
- iPad Pro
- Apple TV
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Apple Car Given the Green Light, Auto Executive Predicts Apple Car Will Fail Miserably, Rethinking the iPhone "S" Cycle
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Car Given the Green Light
- Auto Executive Predicts Apple Car Will Fail Miserably
- Rethinking the iPhone "S" Cycle
We kick off today's email with the big scoop from the WSJ about Apple giving the Apple Car the green light. I continue to think we have been on the right track when thinking about Apple's ambitions in the car market and want to take this opportunity to break apart the WSJ story and discuss the major implications from the piece. Soon after the WSJ published its Apple Car story, auto executive Bob Lutz went on CNBC to throw cold water on the idea of Apple doing a car. We take a closer look at his argument. We conclude with a few reasons why I think differently about the iPhone "S" cycle.
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Jony Ive's New Role at Apple, Angela Ahrendts's Impact on Apple
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Jony Ive's New Role at Apple
- Angela Ahrendts's Impact on Apple
Welcome to a new week. We take a break from some of the product discussion to focus on Apple management, specifically Jony Ive and Angela Ahrendts. Long-time readers will know that one of the best ways to understand what Apple is trying to do is to understand those in a leadership position. We are getting a clearer view of Jony's new role at Apple since being promoted to Chief Design Officer. Next, we discuss Fortune's recent article on Angela Ahrendts which went over her major accomplishments at Apple as well as how Tim Cook thinks of her performance. The article goes a long way in clearing up much confusion over what Ahrendts is actually doing at Apple.
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Apple Acquires Mapsense, Kardashian/Jenner Sisters Take on the App Store, Thursday Q&A (iPhone Grey Market)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Making Sense Out of Apple's Mapsense Acquisition
- Kardashian/Jenner Sisters Take on the App Store
- Thursday Q&A: Why Would the iPhone Upgrade Program Lead to a Larger Grey Market for iPhones?
We kick things off by going over news that Apple acquired mapping company, Mapsense. While everyone is saying this acquisition is just to boost Apple Maps, I think there may be a different motive behind the deal. We next switch over to the new Kardashian/Jenner apps, which have taken the App Store by storm this week. There are a number of intriguing aspects to these apps that deserve mentioning. We conclude with Thursday Q&A which goes over some of the math behind the iPhone Upgrade Program and why the iPhone grey market would see a boost from the program.
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Thoughts on the iPhone Upgrade Program
Today's Above Avalon story:
- Thoughts on the iPhone Upgrade Program
Today's email is dedicated to the iPhone Upgrade Program. I have been getting an increasing number of questions about the program and what it means for Apple. We begin by going over all of the details, including some of the information not widely known in the press. Next, we address the short- and long-term implications from the program on Apple and the mobile carriers. We conclude by discussing a number of general observations about the iPhone Upgrade Program and if it's actually a good deal for consumers.
I divided today's email into a few sections:
- The Details
- History
- Dollars and Cents
- Short-Term Impacts
- Long-Term Impacts
- Overall Observations
- Is It a Good Deal?
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