Key Apple Designer Joins GoPro, Dire Apple Watch Sales Projections, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Key Apple Designer Joins GoPro
- Dire Apple Watch Sales Projections
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email by discussing Apple designer Danny Coster joining GoPro as VP of Design. While there are only a few people that are in a position to know the full story, we go over some of Coster's background, observations about Apple's industrial design team, recent management changes regarding Jony Ive and Richard Howarth, and my theory on what happened. We then shift over to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo's dire prediction that Apple Watch sales will fall by 50% on an adjusted basis this year. We discuss Kuo's numbers and then go over my quarterly Watch unit sales estimates. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following question submitted by a member:
- Is Fitbit doing better than expected given recent Blaze sales disclosure?
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Facebook Underwhelmed Me, BuzzFeed Hits a Rough Patch
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Facebook Underwhelmed Me
- BuzzFeed Hits a Rough Patch
Today's email takes a closer look at Mark Zuckerberg's keynote at Facebook's F8 developer conference. For the first time, Facebook left me underwhelmed. We then look at the FT's report that BuzzFeed is missing internal revenue projections. There are renewed questions around BuzzFeed's business model and the broader topic of news consumption in a mobile world. It's looking increasingly likely that Apple News may take on an expanded role in this changing environment.
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Project Titan Buildings Revealed, The Mac's Resiliency
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Project Titan Buildings Revealed
- The Mac's Resiliency
We kick off today's email by taking a closer look at the Silicon Valley Business Journal report on Apple's web of Project Titan buildings spread across Santa Clara, Sunnyvale and San Jose. Upon closer examination, and using my previous research into Apple's land transactions, we have our clearest view yet of Apple's electric car project. We also discuss my thoughts on Titan R&D centers, testing ground facilities, and team HQ. The email then turns to the PC market and the disastrous 1Q shipment data. After briefly discussing the ominous trends, we look at the three likely reasons that explain Mac's resiliency.
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Samsung Shifting Smartphone Strategies, Recent Apple Advertising Buzz
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Samsung Shifting Smartphone Strategies
- Recent Apple Advertising Buzz
We begin today's email by taking a closer look at Samsung's latest strategy of competing on price to win back market share in the smartphone market. After setting the stage for why Samsung is looking to change strategies, we discuss the most likely outcome in the U.S., China and India. We then discuss Apple advertising, taking a closer look at two recent ads starring Taylor Swift and the Cookie Monster. While Apple's advertising is still a work in progress, one of the ads likely contains clues as to where Apple is headed in terms of refining its product messaging.
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Rethinking Apple Watch Collections, Apple Campus 2 Tables vs. Project Titan, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Rethinking Apple Watch Collections
- Apple Campus 2 Tables vs. Project Titan
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email by talking Apple Watch. Instead of recapping the highs and lows of Apple Watch's first year, I decided to mark the product's upcoming one-year anniversary by looking forward to where I think the product is headed. In today's email, I introduce new thoughts and observations that I have been toying with over the past few months regarding Apple Watch. It's time to rethink the overall concept of how Apple is selling Apple Watch and the various Watch collections. There is a better way going forward that emphasizes the Watch's most important feature.
The email then turns to an interesting story about how Apple selected 500 18-foot long tables for Apple Campus 2. There are similarities between how these tables were created and how Apple is approaching the auto industry with Project Titan. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following question submitted by a member:
- Why is Apple Pay adoption still so slow with consumers?
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Foxconn Buys Sharp, Foxconn's Next Big Bet, Twitter Wins NFL Streaming
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Foxconn Buys Sharp
- Foxconn's Next Big Bet
- Twitter Wins NFL Streaming
Today's email takes a deep dive into Foxconn's Sharp acquisition. We discuss some of the history leading up to the deal, why Foxconn has been interested in Sharp for years, and implications on Apple. Next, we discuss one takeaway from Foxconn/Sharp that has nothing to do with display technology but instead with Foxconn's motivation. I'm becoming increasingly confident that Foxconn is going to be a big player in the auto industry. The email concludes with a look at Twitter winning digital streaming rights to 10 NFL Thursday night games. We discuss why I'm hesitant in thinking this deal means a whole lot for the future of live sports.
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iPhone SE Opening Weekend Sales Estimate, Growing Backlash Against Apple's India Plans, Turmoil at Disney
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- iPhone SE Opening Weekend Sales Estimate
- Growing Backlash Against Apple's India Plans
- Turmoil at Disney
Today's email begins with estimating iPhone SE opening weekend sales and comparing this total to overall iPhone sales. Proper perspective is needed when viewing Apple's intended market for the iPhone SE. We then turn to an update regarding Apple's iPhone plans for India. There is growing backlash over Apple's request to import and sell used iPhones in India. We go over the latest development and discuss why there is growing backlash against Apple from the leading smartphone brands in India.
The email concludes with a look at Disney's big announcement that Disney COO Thomas Staggs, heir apparent to CEO Bob Iger, is leaving the company. Disney and Apple have a relationship involving content and it is important to track where Disney may be headed given what appears to be growing executive turmoil.
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Tesla Model 3, Elon Musk's Chess Game, Tesla vs. Apple
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Tesla Model 3
- Elon Musk's Chess Game
- Tesla vs. Apple
Today's email takes a deep dive into Tesla's Model 3 and Elon Musk's drive for sustainable transport. After discussing the path Tesla and Elon Musk have taken to get to today, we go over my initial impressions of Tesla's first mass-market vehicle, the Model 3. We also go over the number of Model 3 preorders and what it means not just for Tesla but the entire auto and tech industries.
Next, we shift to what I suspect Elon Musk's game plan is for the Model 3 and why this resembles a game of chess. The email concludes with a look at how Tesla's future automobile plans are different from what I suspect Apple wants to accomplish with Project Titan. We discuss how I suspect the next few years will pan out for these Model 3 preorders and how Tesla may be able to produce so many cars in such a short time frame.
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Estimating iPhone SE's Profit Margin, Microsoft Build & Conversation as a Platform, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Estimating iPhone SE's Profit Margin
- Microsoft Build & Conversation as a Platform
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email by estimating the iPhone SE's profit margin. After taking a closer look at Chipworks' iPhone SE teardown report, we discuss the primary drivers of iPhone SE's overall cost profile and how it relates to the iPhone 5s. We then compare the iPhone SE's profit margin to other iPhone models. Next, we look at the big picture coming out Microsoft's developer conference and the "conversation as a platform" subject. Where does Apple fit in this future? We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following two questions submitted by members:
- When will the iPhone Upgrade Program begin impacting Apple's financial results?
- Do you think Apple is working on a multi-room home audio system, similar to a cross between Sonos and Amazon Echo?
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Spotify Showing Signs of Trouble, Apple Partners with MLB for iPads
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Spotify Showing Signs of Trouble
- Apple Partners with MLB for iPads
We begin today's email by discussing why Spotify's $1 billion convertible debt transaction is yet another sign that music streaming is a complete mess right now. We take a closer look at Spotify and what I suspect is the company's biggest problem (and most likely path) going forward. Next, we shift to news that Apple will be partnering with Major League Baseball to put 12.9-inch iPad Pros in the dugouts. There are differences between this partnership and Microsoft's Surface/NFL multi-year deal. We conclude with a few takeaways as to why Apple is doing this partnership besides routine marketing.
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My iPhone SE Theory, Early iPhone SE Demand Trends in China, New Apple Watch Marketing
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- My iPhone SE Theory
- Early iPhone SE Demand Trends in China
- New Apple Watch Marketing
We kick off today's email by looking at my simple theory about the iPhone SE. Is it appropriate to assume the SE serves as a hint for future changes to the iPhone line? Next, we discuss some of the iPhone SE's financial implications on Wall Street. What do the early iPhone SE demand trends in China point to regarding sales and Apple's 3Q16 earnings? We conclude with a closer look at some of the marketing changes found with Apple's Apple Watch website overhaul. By tracking Apple Watch marketing changes, we can stay up to date as to how Apple is thinking about the product.
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No Signs of iPhone Tick-Tock Cycle, Apple's First Original TV Series, Trying to Transplant Apple Culture Outside Apple
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- No Signs of iPhone Tick-Tock Cycle
- Apple's First Original TV Series
- Trying to Transplant Apple Culture Outside Apple
We begin today's email by discussing the latest round of iPhone rumors and the fact that there are very few signs of the iPhone tick-tock cycle where a major design update every other year is followed by refinements in the 'S' years. After circling back to my "The Pixar iPhone" article where I theorized the iPhone tick-tock cycle died years ago, we go over two important implications related to an iPhone line that no longer follows the tick-tock "S" cycle. Next, we shift to reports of Apple developing its first original TV series. This builds off our email from Thursday where we discussed Apple quietly building a video streaming service. Today's email concludes with a look at Tony Fadell/Nest serving as the latest example of a former Apple executive trying to recreate the Apple culture outside of Apple. We look at why this is actually an impossible feat.
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Apple Is Quietly Building an Exclusive Video Content Service, Nike HyperAdapt Is a Big Deal, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Is Quietly Building an Exclusive Video Content Service
- Nike HyperAdapt Is a Big Deal
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email by looking at news that Apple is offering a new video series from Vice for Apple Music. It's becoming quite clear that Apple is going after exclusive video content and Apple Music membership is its vehicle of choice for building this new content strategy. We go over why Apple feels the need to get into video, including a look at the changing music streaming landscape. Next, we shift to Nike announcing the shoe industry's "iPhone" moment last week. We discuss adaptive lacing and my conviction that Apple's future includes adaptive clothing. The email concludes with Thursday Q&A (this week's Q&A relates to Liam the robot).
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Additional Musings from Apple's Keynote, iPhone SE Priced at a Premium Internationally
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Additional Musings from Apple's Keynote
- iPhone SE Priced at a Premium Internationally
Yesterday's update went over the five major themes from Apple's keynote. Today, we go over my full detailed notes and musings from Apple's presentation including everything that jumped out at me or seemed a bit unusual. In addition, we go over some of the math and numbers behind 4-inch iPhone sales and 9.7-inch iPad popularity. Next, we shift over to iPhone SE pricing and what appears to be a deliberate Apple strategy to price the iPhone SE at a premium internationally, even after taking into account taxes and exchange rates. We discuss what such a move suggests about Apple's iPhone SE strategy.
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The Apple Keynote: Thoughts and Observations
Today's Above Avalon story:
- The Apple Keynote: Thoughts and Observations
Yesterday's "Loop You In" keynote was unusual. We begin with an overview of why and how this event felt different from more recent Apple keynotes. We then break out the five most important topics from the event. There was plenty to discuss from a business analysis perspective.
Sections:
- Elephant in the Room
- The Apple Experience
- The "Why" Behind iPhone SE
- The Tricky 9.7-Inch iPad Pro
- Apple Watch Pricing
- Say Hello to Liam
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