Deep Dive into Apple's 2016 10-K, Jimmy Iovine Hints at Original Music Content, Disney Turns Bullish on ESPN
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Deep Dive into Apple's 2016 10-K
- Jimmy Iovine Hints at Original Music Content
- Disney Turns Bullish on ESPN
We kick off today's email with a closer look at Apple's 2016 10-K filing. The email goes over my notes (15 subtopics) from the filing. We then discuss a recent Jimmy Iovine interview with the WSJ that caught my attention. When the topic turned to the future of music streaming services, Iovine had a few interesting comments regarding original content. The email then turns to Disney's recent earnings call and the company turning remarkably more upbeat about ESPN's prospects. We go over Disney's change of tone and how it may fit into Apple's content strategy.
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The Perils of Being a Hardware Company, Preview of Apple Sales on Black Friday, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Perils of Being a Hardware Company
- Preview of Apple Sales on Black Friday
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with a closer look at Wall Street's skepticism about tech hardware companies. We go over Fitbit, GoPro, and Apple in terms of how each company is navigating the difficult path of relying on hardware-centric business models. The email then shifts to my thoughts and observations on this year's Black Friday sales on Apple products. While Apple won't likely directly participate in Black Friday sales, some of the major U.S. retailers released their promotions yesterday. There are a few takeaways related to Apple Watch and iPad. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Is it normal for Apple executives to hold few shares of AAPL?
- Would Apple realistically want to bring all of its foreign cash back to the U.S.?
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Initial Thoughts on U.S. Election Impact on Apple, More Evidence for Strong MacBook Pro Demand, Apple Now Selling Refurbished iPhones
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Initial Thoughts on U.S. Election Impact on Apple
- More Evidence for Strong MacBook Pro Demand
- Apple Now Selling Refurbished iPhones
We begin today's email by discussing the impact from the U.S. presidential election. Markets are jittery as a Trump presidency will usher in a new agenda and set of policies into Washington. We go over the major themes and topics to think about regarding the impact on Apple (both positive and negative). The email then turns to additional evidence of strong MacBook Pro demand. This has implications on gauging the fallout from the criticism pointed at the new MacBook Pro. We conclude with going over my thoughts on Apple selling refurbished iPhones in the U.S. There are some interesting takeaways from the move concerning global iPhone demand.
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The Microsoft Surface Strategy, Thoughts on Microsoft Surface Studio, NBCUniversal to Sell Ads in Apple News
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Microsoft Surface Strategy
- Thoughts on Microsoft Surface Studio
- NBCUniversal to Sell Ads in Apple News
We kick off today's email with a closer look at Microsoft's Surface Studio. The discussion begins with an overview of Microsoft's Surface strategy and then shifts to my thoughts on the Surface Studio. We also discuss my view on the Surface Studio representing compeititon for the Mac. The email then shifts to news of Apple partnering with NBCUniversal to sell ads in Apple News. We discuss the implications from the partnership and how it relates to the narrative of Apple wanting to become a services company. There are an increasing number of holes in the narrative.
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The Apple Innovation Feedback Loop, Apple Cuts USB-C Accessories Pricing, Early MacBook Pro Sales
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Apple Innovation Feedback Loop
- Apple Cuts USB-C Accessories Pricing
- Early MacBook Pro Sales
We begin today's email by continuing the discussion kicked off in my article last week, "Apple Is Placing a Big Bet with the New MacBook Pro." Specifically, we look at a new item that I coined, "The Apple Innovation Feedback Loop," which ends up revealing much about Apple's plans for the Mac and the main takeaway from the new MacBook Pro. The email then turns to Apple slashing pricing for USB-C/Thunderbolt 3 accessories. We go over why I think Apple is running this promotion. The discussion concludes with a few of my thoughts on Phil Schiller's comment that early MacBook Pro online sales are at a record. There are a few moving pieces to consider about the comment.
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Fitbit's Awful Earnings, Early Warning Sign for Apple Watch Sales?, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Fitbit's Awful Earnings
- Early Warning Sign for Apple Watch Sales?
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with a closer look at Fitbit's 3Q16 earnings report and conference call. Results were not good. After going over my thoughts and observations about Fitbit and it's bad quarter, we shift to the two ways to interpret Fitbit's results. Does a weak Fitbit serve as a warning sign for Apple Watch? We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Could Apple buy Sling TV?
- Is Apple announcing more than they can deliver on?
- Why didn't Apple announce new Mac desktops last week?
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Jony Ive on the New MacBook Pro, Jony's Absence at the Mac Keynote, Thoughts on Mac Criticism
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Jony Ive on the New MacBook Pro
- Jony's Absence at the Mac Keynote
- Thoughts on Mac Criticism
We begin today's email by discussing Jony Ive's interview with CNET regarding the new MacBook Pro. We go over Apple's goal with the Touch Bar, the ingredients that came together to create the Touch Bar, and the prospects of an iPad/Mac hybrid. The email then turns to Jony's absence at last week's keynote, which is becoming a trend. Is there anything to read into regarding his keynote absences? We conclude with my thoughts on the significant amount of MacBook Pro criticism. Upon closer examination, I don't think the criticism is just about the new MacBook Pro. It's much more.
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Apple's Mac Keynote: Detailed Thoughts and Observations
Today's daily update includes more granular thoughts and observations from attending Apple's Mac keynote. Yesterday's update was focused on the major themes (available here). Twenty-seven topics are covered in today's update.
The full update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple's Mac Keynote: Major Themes
Today's daily update is focused on reviewing Apple's Mac keynote. Along with a summary overview, the email covers five major themes from management's presentation and my time with the new MacBook Pro:
- Observations Attending the Event
- A MacBook Pro Event
- Rethinking the Keyboard
- Apple's (Confusing) Mac Line
- Apple's TV Problem
Tomorrow's daily update will include additional thoughts and observations from Apple's event.
The full update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 4Q16 Earnings Review: Details
Today's daily update is the second part of my Apple 4Q16 earnings review. Yesterday's update was focused on the major themes (available here). The email covers my perspective on the details from Apple's earnings release and conference call. Eighteen topics are covered, including iPhone channel inventory, iPhone pricing, App Store trends, and China weakness.
The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 4Q16 Earnings Review: Major Themes
Today's daily update is focused on reviewing Apple's 4Q16 earnings. Along with a big picture overall of the quarter, the email covers five major themes from the report and conference call:
- Apple 4Q16: Apple Met Elevated Expectations
- iPhone Growth Will Return
- iPad Improvement Continues
- Apple Watch Sales Look Light
- Apple Studios Gets the Green Light
- Apple Product Pipeline Doubt
Tomorrow's daily update will include additional thoughts and observations on Apple's quarter.
The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Previewing Apple's Mac Event, Mac Expectations, The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Previewing Apple's Mac Event
- Mac Expectations
- The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products
Today's update is dedicated to previewing Apple's upcoming keynote. We begin by setting the stage for this week's event, including the items I will be paying attention to on Thursday. The email then goes through my expectations for changes to the Mac line. We break apart the Mac line to discuss the six categories (11 total models). We also go over my thoughts on new Mac pricing. The email concludes with a revisit to The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products as we go over Apple management's goal for new Macs.
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Apple's Changing Tune on Original Content, Eddy Cue Talks Content at Vanity Fair, AT&T to Acquire Time Warner
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Changing Tune on Original Content
- Eddy Cue Talks Content at Vanity Fair
- AT&T to Acquire Time Warner
We begin today's email by discussing Apple management's changing tone towards original content. In the span of three years, Apple has become much more open to the idea of doing its own original video programming. We go over my thoughts and observations on the subject, including taking a closer look at management's commentary on the topic. The email then turns to Eddy Cue's recent talk at the Vanity Fair's New Establishment Summit. Cue had some interesting things to say about Apple's current philosophy on original video content and how he looks at Netflix in terms of competition. We conclude with my thoughts on AT&T/Time Warner acquisition news. The deal is about one thing and Apple won't be able to escape the fallout.
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AAPL 4Q16 Earnings Preview (iPhone and Guidance), Tesla's Autonomous/Ridesharing Strategy
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 4Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPhone)
- AAPL 4Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - Guidance)
- Tesla's Autonomous/Ridesharing Strategy
We begin today's email with the second half of my AAPL 4Q16 earnings preview. (The first half is available here.) We discuss my thoughts on iPhone sales expectations heading into next week's earnings report. The email then turns to mangement's 1Q17 guidance. We discuss the most likely revenue guidance ranges, as well as how Wall Street will react to each range. The email concludes with a deep dive into Tesla's new product announcement related to autonomous driving. There is a lot to discuss, including a very interesting clue about how Tesla plans to launch its own ridesharing network. We also bring Apple's Project Titan into the discussion to see where Apple's best opportunity to add something new to the mix can be found.
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AAPL 4Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 1 and Part 2), Additional Thoughts on Project Titan
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 4Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Methodology)
- AAPL 4Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Services, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch)
- Additional Thoughts on Project Titan
We begin today's email with the first half of my AAPL 4Q16 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on expectations heading into next week's earnings report. The email then turns to a closer look at Services, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch. We go over my unit sales and revenue estimates, as well as an overview of each product line heading into earnings. The email concludes with a continuation of the discussion found in yesterday's update about Project Titan. There were three additional points worth going into more detail, including an interesting theory about Bob Mansfield's role with Project Titan.
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