Apple Weighing Investment in SoftBank Fund, Apple Music Passes 20M Users, Microsoft Is Going After Apple
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Weighing Investment in SoftBank Fund
- Apple Music Passes 20M Users
- Microsoft Is Going After Apple
We kick off today's email with news of Apple weighing a $1B investment in SoftBank's $100B technology fund. We go over why such an investment would mark a significant change in strategy for Apple. The discussion then turns to news of Apple Music passing 20M paying subscribers. We go over a few of my thoughts and observations on the milestone. The email concludes with a discussion on Microsoft's latest PR tactic focused on going after Apple and the Mac. There are signs of the Microsoft vs. Apple relationship changing as Microsoft becomes increasingly more aggressive in its pursuit for Mac users.
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Thoughts on the AirPods Delay, An AirPods Speed Bump, Apple Watch Ads Getting Better
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on the AirPods Delay
- An AirPods Speed Bump
- Apple Watch Ads Getting Better
We begin today's email by going over my thoughts and observations regarding the AirPods delay. We discuss how "manufacturing issues" and "connectivity issues" may be related. The email then turns to the question of whether the AirPods delay signals much larger issues within Apple. We conclude with a closer look at Apple's new Apple Watch ads and why they are much more effective than previous Watch ads.
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Signs of iPhone Sales Benefiting from Samsung Recall, iPhone Trends in China Remain Weak, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Signs of iPhone Sales Benefiting from Samsung Recall
- iPhone Trends in China Remain Weak
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with a closer look at smartphone data for the month of October. Specifically, we take a deep dive into U.S. and China results. There is evidence of the iPhone benefiting from fallout related to the Samsung Note 7 recall. We go over my thoughts and observations on the latest data trends. The email also covers the latest iPhone trends in China, which tells a very different story compared to the U.S. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Is there any new data regarding Apple Watch band sales? How about Hermès bands?
- Should Apple sell Spectacles in their stores?
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Additional Thoughts on Milking the iPhone, Foxconn to Invest in U.S.
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Additional Thoughts on Milking the iPhone
- Foxconn to Invest in U.S.
We begin today's email by continuing the discussion kicked off in my article, "Milking the iPhone." Specifically, we discuss the article's background and Apple product implications arising from the article's conclusions. The email then turns to reports of Foxconn planning to invest in the U.S. We go over my thoughts and observations on this development and its potential impact on Apple.
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Apple Expects Record Apple Watch Sales, Deep Dive into 3Q16 Wearables Market, Motorola Is Done with Smartwatches
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Expects Record Apple Watch Sales
- Deep Dive into 3Q16 Wearables Market
- Motorola Is Done with Smartwatches
Today's email has a wrist wearables theme. We begin by taking a closer look at Tim Cook's latest comments about Apple Watch sales. We discuss the various implications related to his commentary, including what Cook's strong statement suggests for Apple Watch unit sales during the holiday quarter. We then take a deep dive into the 3Q16 wearables market. We go over my thoughts and observations on all of the moving parts including Apple Watch's place within the industry. The email concludes with a discussion on Motorola exiting the smartwatch industry and what it may mean for Google's smartwatch ambitions.
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Deep Dive into NHTSA Guidelines for Autonomous Vehicles, Apple Confirms Project Titan, Apple Building a Drone Team
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Deep Dive into NHTSA Guidelines for Autonomous Vehicles
- Apple Confirms Project Titan
- Apple Building a Drone Team
We begin today's email by taking a deep dive into the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) recently published guidelines for autonomous vehicles. Specifically, my notes on the guidelines are written with Apple in mind. This deep dive allows us to properly analyze Apple's recent letter to NHTSA commenting on the guidelines. Apple's intentions are becoming clear. The email concludes with a closer look at news of Apple building a drone team to "improve mapping." I suspect there is a bit more to this story than just to "improve mapping."
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Amazon Developing New Alexa Tablet, Fitbit Planning to Buy Pebble, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Amazon Developing New Alexa Tablet
- Fitbit Planning to Buy Pebble
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with a closer look at Amazon planning to unveil a tablet for Alexa. There is a lot of irony found in this story. We go over my thoughts and observations on Amazon Echo, Alexa, voice assistants, and screens. The email then turns to news that Fitbit is planning to buy Pebble. We discuss Fitbit's motivation for acquiring Pebble and what the acquisition would suggest about Fitbit's product strategy and the broader wrist wearables space. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Why doesn't Apple increase its advertising budget in the face of falling unit sales?
- Are there any signs of Tor Myhren contributing to Apple marketing/advertising?
- Would it make sense for Apple to have "CarPlay AR" (ability to have your iPhone work with a head-up display that places data on a car's windshield)?
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New FY2017 and FY2018 Apple EPS Projections, The iPhone's Monopoly, Apple Partnering with Ola
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- New FY2017 and FY2018 Apple EPS Projections
- The iPhone's Monopoly
- Apple Partnering with Ola
Today's email continues our focus on FY2017 and FY2018 Apple financial estimates. We go over my Apple revenue, operating income, and EPS projections. The discussion builds on previous updates focused on my revised iPhone unit sales estimates (available here), and iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac (available here). The email then turns to new data regarding Apple's significant share of operating income found in the smartphone industry. We go over a few of my thoughts and observations regarding the data and what it may mean for future iPhone pricing. The email concludes with a look at Apple partnering with Ola, the largest ridesharing company in India. We discuss the rationale for the partnership and the clues that hint at Apple's broader motive for working with Ola.
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New FY2017 and FY2018 Apple Watch, iPad, and Mac Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Watch Sales Estimates
- iPad Sales Estimates
- Mac Sales Estimates
Today's email is focused on my new Apple Watch, iPad, and Mac unit sales estimates for FY2017 and FY2018. The discussion builds on yesterday's look at my revised iPhone unit sales estimates (available here). We begin by discussing my methodology for deriving Apple Watch unit sales estimates. The email then turns to the iPad business. Evidence is mounting that the iPad business has turned a corner in terms of unit sales growth. We go over my thoughts and observations as to the factors driving this change. The email ends with discussion on Mac sales estimates.
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Methodology for Estimating iPhone Sales, iPhone Installed Base Estimates, New 2017 and 2018 iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Methodology for Estimating iPhone Sales
- iPhone Installed Base Estimates
- New 2017 and 2018 iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's email is focused on iPhone sales. We begin by discussing my methodology for deriving iPhone unit sales estimates. The email then turns to the iPhone installed base. I share my estimates for the number of new iPhone users per year from 2007 to 2016, including my current estimate for the size of the iPhone installed base and user base. We conclude with my revised iPhone unit sales estimate for FY2017 and the introduction of my FY2018 iPhone unit sales estimate. We also go over my thoughts and observations on the concept of "Peak iPhone" and how the iPhone sales landscape looks over the next few years. FY2018 and FY2019 look very intriguing from an iPhone sales perspective.
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Apple Disbands Wireless Router Division, Amazon Chasing Live Sports, Apple's Texas Pawn
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Disbands Wireless Router Division
- Amazon Chasing Live Sports
- Apple's Texas Pawn
We begin today's email by discussing Bloomberg's article about Apple shutting down its wireless router team. We go over my thoughts and observations on the scoop and why I think Apple disbanded the group. The email turns to Amazon's quest for live sports programming. While the company is clearly showing remarkable ambition, Amazon is in a unique position to approach sports content differently than Apple and others. We conclude with The New York Times taking a closer look at Apple's Austin, Texas campus. Apple's desire to shine light on its Austin campus provides clues as to Apple's strategy for going up against Washington's new "putting America first" agenda.
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The Electric Car Ownership Head Fake, McLaren Confirms Talks with Apple, Odds of Apple/Tesla Partnership are Increasing
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Electric Car Ownership Head Fake
- McLaren Confirms Talks with Apple
- Odds of Apple/Tesla Partnership are Increasing
We begin today's email by expanding on the discussion kicked off in my article last week, "Skating to the Apple Car Puck." We go into greater detail on why I think there will be an electric car ownership head fake. The future of transportation is increasingly looking like a shared model. The email then turns to McLaren confirming it was in talks with Apple. We break down the latest news of a major McLaren management shakeup, with a focus on what it may mean for Apple. The email concludes with my thoughts on how Tesla's SolarCity acquisition will impact the probabilities of Tesla being an acquisition target for Apple. We also go over why the probability of Apple partnering with Tesla in the future has increased following Tesla's SolarCity deal.
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Snap's Intriguing Spectacles Rollout, Apple Cuts App Store Fees for Video Services, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Snap's Intriguing Spectacles Rollout
- Apple Cuts App Store Fees for Video Services
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with a closer look at Snap's Spectacles rollout. We go over my thoughts and observations on the unique rollout and how Snap is trying to position Spectacles differently compared to the average tech gadget. We discuss what it may mean for the product going forward. The discussion then turns to news of Apple cutting App Store fees for video services that integrate with Apple's new TV app. We go over the implications such a move will have on Apple's video ambitions and Services business. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- If tariffs are added to all imported goods from China, is Apple prepared to start manufacturing the iPhone in the U.S.?
- Is it possible that Apple delayed AirPods to avoid overshadowing the Apple Watch Series 1 as this holiday season's top gift?
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Apple Releases New Design Book, Nostalgia vs. Inspiration, This Is Jony's Apple
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Releases New Design Book
- Nostalgia vs. Inspiration
- This Is Jony's Apple
Today's update is dedicated to discussing Apple's new design book, "Designed by Apple in California." We begin by going over the book's details, including how Apple treated the book like any other Apple product. We then go over my thoughts and observations about Apple's motivation and reasoning for such a book. The discussion includes the debate as to whether such a book is a sign of Apple embracing nostalgia or rather a form of inspiration. We then go over why I think this book reinforces the theory that we are watching Jony's Apple take shape. The email concludes with a discussion as to how Jony is influencing Apple, why I suspect Jony wanted to publish this book now, and what the book tells us about Apple design's future.
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Apple Exploring Smart Glasses, Phil Schiller Confirms Apple Innovation Feedback Loop, Samsung Buys Harman
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Exploring Smart Glasses
- Phil Schiller Confirms Apple Innovation Feedback Loop
- Samsung Buys Harman
We begin today's email by discussing Bloomberg's new report that Apple is developing a pair of smart glasses. We discuss a few issues that I had with the report and the big picture concerning Apple moving into AR glasses. The email then turns to MacBook Pro reviews and Phil Schiller's new comments about the Touch Bar. Schiller confirmed my Apple Innovation Feedback Loop theory. We look at what this means for the Mac going forward. We conclude with news of Samsung buying Harman, a U.S. automative technology manufacturer. We go over why I think the deal is a Samsung head fake.
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