A Cellular Apple Watch Isn't a Stretch, Apple 3Q17 10-Q Takeaways
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- A Cellular Apple Watch Isn't a Stretch
- Apple 3Q17 10-Q Takeaways
We begin today's email with my thoughts on why it is not a stretch for Apple to unveil a cellular Apple Watch next month. In yesterday's email, we discussed Apple's plans to unveil a cellular Apple Watch. Reactions to the topic contained much skepticsm. We go over the hesitation and then break down how it's plausible that Apple is ready to announce a cellular Apple Watch. The email then shifts to the key takeaways from Apple's quarterly 10-Q filing for 3Q17. We cover 10 financial topics.
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Apple to Sell Cellular Apple Watch, Apple Watch to Follow iPhone "S" Cycle, My Theory on Intentional Apple Leaks
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple to Sell Cellular Apple Watch
- Apple Watch to Follow iPhone "S" Cycle
- My Theory on Intentional Apple Leaks
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Apple planning to unveil a cellular Apple Watch next month. We go over how such a product would fit within an iPhone world. The email then turns to the WSJ article reporting that Apple plans to update the Apple Watch like the iPhone going forward. We go over what such an update schedule would look like. The discussion concludes with my theory that news of a cellular Apple Watch is an intentional Apple leak a few weeks ahead of the company's largest product unveil in years. We go over controlled leaks, how the cellular Apple Watch reports display the characteristics of an intentional leak, and why Apple would be motivated to leak news about a cellular Apple Watch.
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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Review: Details
Today's daily email includes the second half of my Apple 3Q17 earnings review. Yesterday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 26 different topics.
The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Review: Major Themes
Today's Above Avalon email is focused on reviewing Apple's 3Q17 earnings. Along with a big picture overview of the quarter, the email covers five major themes from the report and conference call:
- A Huge September iPhone Event Is Coming
- iPad's Blowout Quarter
- Cook's AR Exuberance
- Apple Cash Builds
- Punting the China Question
The second half of the earnings review (sent tomorrow) will go over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call.
The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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The End of the iPod Era, Tesla Model 3 Deliveries Begin
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- The End of the iPod Era
- Tesla Model 3 Deliveries Begin
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Apple updating the iPod line. We have seen the unofficial end of the iPod era at Apple. Our discussion goes over iPod's history, including why it was such a remarkable product from a business perspective and how the iPod led to the iPhone. The email then turns to Tesla's recent Model 3 delivery event. We go over four items that jumped out at me about the Model 3 and the event. We also address whether success with Model 3 production means Tesla makes a better acquisition target for Apple.
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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Expectation Meters, Apple Glasses Timing, Apple Pulls VPN Apps in China
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple 3Q17 Earnings Expectation Meters
- Apple Glasses Timing
- Apple Pulls VPN Apps in China
We begin today's email with my 3Q17 Apple earnings expectation meters. Instead of relying on single-point sales estimates, these expectation meters contain sales ranges that can be used to judge Apple's quarterly performance. By using the expectation meters in conjunction with the earnings preview found in last week's emails (available here), we will be all ready for tomorrow's earnings. The discussion then turns to my "Apple Glasses Are Inevitable" article from last week. In particular, we go into the topic of timing in greater detail. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple pulling VPN apps from the App Store in China. We go over why the move was predictable and Apple's approach to governments (and regulations) around the world.
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Jony Ive Is Leading Apple, Inside Samsung's Culture, Facebook Working on Smart Speaker
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Jony Ive Is Leading Apple
- Inside Samsung's Culture
- Facebook Working on Smart Speaker
We kick off today's email by going over my thoughts and observations on the Jony Ive profile in the WSJ Magazine. There were quite a few important takeaways regarding Jony's role at Apple. The discussion then turns to Bloomberg's interesting look inside Samsung during a tumultuous time for the company. We go over my view on the piece and what it says about Samsung's culture. The email concludes with a discussion about Facebook reportedly planning to sell its own smart speaker for the home.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (4Q17 Guidance Discussion), Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales, The Rock Sells Siri
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (4Q17 Guidance Discussion)
- Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales
- The Rock Sells Siri
Today's email concludes my Apple 3Q17 earnings preview. (The first two parts of the preview are available here and here.) We go over my thoughts on Apple's 4Q17 guidance. The discussion includes my rationale for taking a conservative stance regarding timing around the upcoming iPhone keynote. The keynote's timing has significant implications on Apple's 4Q17 revenue guidance. The email then turns to estimating Microsoft Surface unit sales during CY2Q17. We conclude with a closer look at Apple's new Siri ad with The Rock. There were six items that jumped out at me about the ad and The Rock's partnership with Apple.
These stories, including the full Apple 3Q17 earnings preview, are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, Services Estimates)
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 2)
- iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, Services Estimates
Today's email continues my Apple 3Q17 earnings preview. (The first part of the preview is available here.) We discuss my iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. Tomorrow's email will go over my thoughts on what Apple will report for 4Q17 guidance next week.
The full Apple 3Q17 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (Setting the Stage, iPhone Sales Estimate)
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
Apple 3Q17 Earnings Preview (Part 1)
- Setting the Stage
- iPhone Sales Estimate
Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 3Q17 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into next week's earnings report. The email then turns to my iPhone unit sales estimate. We go over the methodology and data behind my estimate. Tomorrow's email will go over my iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, and Services estimates for 3Q17.
The full Apple 3Q17 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Gauging Apple's Share Buyback Effectiveness, Netflix 2Q17 Earnings, Content's Value in Silicon Valley
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Gauging Apple's Share Buyback Effectiveness
- Netflix 2Q17 Earnings
- Content's Value in Silicon Valley
We kick off today's email by going deeper into the discussion found in this week's Above Avalon article ("Wall Street Has Begun to Think About Apple In a New Way"). We gauge how effective Apple's share buyback program has been since the company began buying back shares in FY2013. The email then turns to my thoughts and observations on Netflix's 2Q17 earnings. The discussion concludes with a closer look at a recent article by Benedict Evan about music and video content's value to Silicon Valley firms. After reading his article, it would be natural to scratch your head and ask why Apple is even bothering with its own original content. However, there is a reason for Apple's interest in the space not mentioned in Evan's post. We also go over a key aspect of the paid streaming market not mentioned in the article.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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WSJ Trashes Apple Design, Apple Appoints VP of China
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- WSJ Trashes Apple Design
- Apple Appoints VP of China
We begin today's email by going over the WSJ's article comparing Samsung and Apple design. There were numerous issues found in the article. We break down the article to get a clearer understanding of how Samsung and Apple approach design very differently. The email then turns to news of Apple appointing Isabel Ge Mahe as VP and managing director of Greater China. I have four observations about the announcement.
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Amazon Working on Better Echo Speakers, Smart Speaker Innovation, Estimating Amazon Echo Sales
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Amazon Working on Better Echo Speakers
- Smart Speaker Innovation
- Estimating Amazon Echo Sales
We kick off today's email by going over the recent Engadget report regarding Amazon working on a new Echo device with a better design and speaker system. We use the report to dive into a deeper discussion about innovation in the smart speaker space. The discussion covers my current position on a number items regarding stationary smart speakers and microphones, voice interfaces, and where wearables enter the discussion. The email concludes with my estimate of how many Echo devices Amazon is selling. We go over my methodology and the thought process behind my sales estimate.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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New iPhone Production Delay Rumors Build, Production Rumors Hint at New iPhone Pricing
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- New iPhone Production Delay Rumors Build
- Production Rumors Hint at New iPhone Pricing
We kick off today's email by going over the latest rumors pertaining to new iPhone production delays. All three new iPhone models are now reportedly delayed to a certain extent. We connect the dots regarding these latest rumors, which provides us three key takeaways. The email then turns to a report from The Korea Herald detailing Apple propping up a few of its suppliers for the new OLED iPhone (iPhone X). We go over my thoughts on the report and the clues hidden in the report that hint at OLED iPhone pricing.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Deep Dive into 2Q17 Mac and PC Sales, Additional Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Deep Dive into 2Q17 Mac and PC Sales
- Additional Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on IDC's and Gartner's 2Q17 PC shipment data. We then take a closer look at their Mac shipment projections and how they compare with my expectations. We also look at Michael Dell's odd comments about PC trends. The discussion then turns to my previous iPhone pricing projections. Specifically, we discuss what may happen at the lower end of the iPhone pricing spectrum. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- What do I think of Gene Munster's five-year model for Apple?
- How far out does my Apple earnings model go?
- What do I think could happen to Apple from a performance perspective over the medium term?
- What will happen if Tesla sees disappointing Model 3 demand?
- Why don't other Apple analysts buy the same reports out of Foxconn as Ming-Chi Kuo?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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