Above Avalon Episode 57: The iPhone 5s Successor

Episode 57 is dedicated to the iPhone SE. After a few comments on Apple's "Let us loop you in" keynote, we begin to address the "what" behind the iPhone SE. We look at Apple VP Greg Joswiak's primary goals in announcing Apple's new 4-inch iPhone on stage and who Apple is targeting with the iPhone SE. Next, we look at how the iPhone SE is manufactured, finding clues that explain the rationale behind the device's $399 price. The episode concludes with a look at Apple's broader iPhone strategy based on screen size differentiation. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 55: Let's Talk 4-Inch iPhones - Above Avalon

iPhone SE Is Apple's $30 Billion Bet on 4-Inch Screens - Above Avalon

Apple March Keynote (video) - Apple

Apple iPhone SE Teardown - Chipworks

The Apple Keynote: Thoughts and Observations (Above Avalon member email) - Above Avalon

Additional Musings from Apple's Keynote (Above Avalon member email) - Above Avalon

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Neil Cybart

Above Avalon (weekly posts)

Above Avalon (daily updates for members)

Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 56: Competing with Facebook

In this episode, we discuss the rivalry between Facebook and Apple and the degree to which Facebook is an Apple competitor. We begin by discussing my Facebook experiment. I stopped using Facebook properties for six months in order to analyze the product. After going over my five primary observations from the experiment, we tackle the debate about whether or not messaging apps will eventually threaten mobile operating systems. Next, we look at Facebook and Apple's relationship and why they are not competitors, but actually partners. The episode concludes with a look at how the Facebook vs. Apple relationship could change in the future based on each company's mission. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

A Facebook Experiment - Above Avalon

Quartz's first news app for iPhone - Quartz

Samsung (and Facebook) at Mobile World Congress - Above Avalon (member email)

More information on Above Avalon memberships - Above Avalon

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Neil Cybart

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Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 55: Let's Talk 4-Inch iPhones

In this episode, we discuss the "why" behind Apple releasing a new 4-inch screen iPhone at its upcoming product event. We take a closer look at the changing iPhone user base and the two primary factors contributing to a more diverse base with varying opinions and attitudes towards small screen iPhones. The episode then shifts to why things changed once the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus launched, making the case for a 4-inch iPhone that much more compelling. We conclude by briefly discussing the iPhone's future and what it means to have screen size be the primary differentiating factor. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

The Changing iPhone User Base - Above Avalon

Calculating the iPhone Installed Base and User Base (Above Avalon member email) - Above Avalon

Introducing New Above Avalon Memership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 54: Tim Cook's Legacy

We have learned a great deal about Tim Cook's motivation and leadership these past two weeks from following the FBI iPhone case. In this episode, we take a closer look at what is becoming Tim Cook's legacy as Apple CEO. After giving various examples of Cook's defining moments, we shift and talk about how Cook works with Jony Ive to create products that push Apple forward. The episode concludes with a look at who holds the most power in and out of Apple and how Cook is literally defining the Apple CEO position. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

The Tim Cook Legacy - Above Avalon

The New York Times "iEconomy" series - NYT

Tim Cook/ABC News interview - ABC News

Tim Cook on Privacy (Charlie Rose) - YouTube

Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade Info - Wikipedia

The Jony Ive Promotion - Above Avalon

The Key Power Brokers at Apple (story sent to members) - Above Avalon 

Information on Above Avalon Memberships - Above Avalon

Introducing New Above Avalon Memership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Neil Cybart

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Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 53: Learning from Tesla

After a few brief words on Tim Cook's message to customers regarding iPhone security and the San Bernardino case, Episode 53 is dedicated to the car industry. Beginning with a look at Tesla's most recent earnings report, we discuss the progress Tesla has been making as an auto manufacturer and why the company has a balance sheet dilemma. Next, we take a closer look at why suggestions that Apple should buy Tesla are off base. The second half of the podcast is focused on the car and why auto production is the single biggest factor to watch in the changing auto industry. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

Standing on Tesla's Shoulders - Above Avalon

Tim Cook's "A Message to Our Customers" - Apple

Tesla 4Q15 Shareholder Letter - Tesla  

Apple Expands Autonomous Driving Team - Above Avalon (member email)

Introducing New Above Avalon Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 52: The iPhone Reality Distortion Field

In this episode, we take a closer look at how the iPhone has changed the definition of success for Apple. Using three examples (Apple Watch, Apple Music and Apple accessories), we highlight how the iPhone business has been able to twist reality when it comes to the judging of Apple's newest products and how much success the company is actually seeing. The secret to understanding Apple success is to focus on the product. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

The iPhone Reality Distortion Field - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Episode 51: Apple's Broken Narrative - Above Avalon

The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Episode 48: People Love Accessories - Above Avalon 

Introducing New Above Avalon Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 51: Apple's Broken Narrative

Apple's Wall Street narrative is broken. The metrics long used to judge Apple's success are now turning negative, and management is trying to use new data points as a way to measure Apple's progress. In this episode, we take a closer look at why narratives are important on Wall Street and why Apple's old narrative is no longer effective. We then take a deep-dive into management's new narrative, including how Apple looks at its service revenue. The episode concludes with a look at what a new Apple narrative needs in order to be effective. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

Apple's Broken Narrative - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Episode 50: iPhone Turbulence - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Episode 48: The Two Apples - Above Avalon

AAPL Is Trading Like a Junk Bond (Above Avalon Premium) - Above Avalon

1Q16 Earnings Supplemental Material - Apple

Introducing New Above Avalon Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 50: iPhone Turbulence

In this post-Apple earnings episode, we discuss what happened to the iPhone business at the end of 2015. Taking a closer look at Apple management's comments on the conference call and analyzing a few new iPhone platform data points, we arrive at the most likely cause for the latest amount of iPhone turbulence. We then look ahead at the near-term strategy Apple is most likely to use for navigating the iPhone business through this turbulence. Finally, we mark the 50th episode of the Above Avalon podcast by discussing the most pleasantly surprising Apple product to have come out since the start of the podcast in 2014.  More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

Apple 1Q16 Earnings Recap and Observations (sent to Above Avalon members) - Above Avalon

Apple Earnings Release - Apple

1Q16 Earnings Transcript - iMore 

Introducing New Above Avalon Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Neil Cybart

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Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 49: Moving Beyond the iPhone

Apple has spent the past four years planting the seeds for doing the seemingly impossible: moving beyond the iPhone. In this episode, we discuss what it means to Apple to be the iPhone company and the strategy Apple has undertaken to position itself as the driver of the next technological era. After analyzing how the wearables market performed in 2015, we conclude with how Apple is thinking about the iPhone's future and the danger of losing relevency. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

Apple Is Moving Beyond the iPhone - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Episode 48: The Two Apples - Above Avalon / Overcast / iTunes

The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products - Above Avalon

Apple Watch Is Being Severely Underestimated - Above Avalon

Introducing New Above Avalon Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Podcast

Above Avalon Episode 48: The Two Apples

There are two Apples: AAPL, the stock, and Apple, the company. In this episode, we discuss the difference between the two Apples. What are the parameters guiding Wall Street's view of AAPL in comparison to Apple management's long-term goals for the company? We discuss AAPL's remarkable underperformance in 2015 and why Apple, the company, had a much more successful year. We conclude with one way Apple management can take this divide between Wall Street and Silicon Valley and use it to their advantage. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.

Show Notes:

The Two Apples - Above Avalon

Apple Is Building Its Largest Startup Ever - Above Avalon

What's next for Apple? - CBS News

Apple Won't Look the Same after Monday's Apple Watch Keynote - Above Avalon

Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow - Above Avalon 

Apple's Cash Dilemma - Above Avalon

Introducing New Above Avalon Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Podcast

Neil Cybart (producer)

Above Avalon Episode 47: Apple Questions for 2016

In this episode, we discuss Apple's business prospects for 2016. By focusing our attention on 20 different topics including Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Music, AAPL financials, management, and product wildcards, we embrace the unknown to reach a better assessment of Apple's priorities and opportunities. We then discuss new Above Avalon features for 2016, including an Above Avalon team in Slack and a new archive for members. 

Show Notes:

Apple Questions for 2016 - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Episode 7: Apple Questions for 2015 - Above Avalon

Above Avalon Episode 46: Selling Apple Watch Buzz - Above Avalon 

Apple Is Building Its Largest Startup Ever - Above Avalon

Decoding Apple's North San Jose Land Mystery - Above Avalon

Calling an iPhone Timeout  (daily update from January 7th to Above Avalon members) - Above Avalon  

Introducing New Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon

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Above Avalon Podcast

Neil Cybart (producer)

Above Avalon Episode 46: Selling Apple Watch Buzz

The Apple Watch and iPad are being positioned as the top tech gadget gifts of the season. In this episode, we take a closer look at Apple's fourth quarter and why third-party retailers are betting on Apple products. With Best Buy and Target offering significant discounts on Apple Watch and iPad, we go over the rationale behind such sales and why retailers want access to tech gadgets with the most buzz. We conclude with a look at where Apple products are sold and how product promotions impact the Apple brand.  

Show Notes:

Strategy Behind Retailers Discounting Apple Watch and iPad - Above Avalon

Where Apple Products are Sold (daily update from August 4th sent to Above Avalon members) - Above Avalon  

Above Avalon membership information (access to a daily email including exclusive Apple analysis and perspective) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

Subscribe to Above Avalon in Overcast

Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon (posts) on Twitter

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart (producer) Twitter

Above Avalon Episode 45: People Love Accessories

In this episode, we take a closer look at the accessory market and the driving factors behind Apple's decision to continue down the path of selling iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch accessories. We then tackle the debate that has been building in recent months over questionable Apple design decisions when it comes to certain accessories including the Magic Mouse 2, Apple Pencil, and iPhone Smart Battery Case. Upon further examination, we end up with an explantation for what may really be going on inside Apple. These accessories serve as a vital piece to a puzzle involving Apple, Jony Ive, design, and personal technology. 

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Episode 6: Jony Ive - Above Avalon

Above Avalon membership information (access to a daily email including exclusive Apple analysis and perspective) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

Subscribe to Above Avalon in Overcast

Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon (posts) on Twitter

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart (producer) Twitter

Above Avalon Episode 44: The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products

Apple management has relied on various product theories over the years to explain its product portfolio. In this episode, we go over these theories, including Apple's newest product theory as recently explained by Phil Schiller. This "Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products," as I term it, gives both goals and descriptions for each of Apple's product categories. We use this theory to reach three important takeaways about Apple's future product plans. We conclude with a brief discussion of my "Peak iPad Mini" theory and why the product has seen its best days. 

Show Notes:

The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products - Above Avalon

Peak iPad Mini - Above Avalon

Marc Newson Interview (includes Apple Watch comments) - Australian Financial Review

Marc Newson on Apple Watch - Above Avalon (daily update from November 5th exclusively for Above Avalon members)

Above Avalon membership information (access to a daily email including exclusive Apple analysis and perspective) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

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Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon (posts) on Twitter

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart (producer) Twitter

Above Avalon Episode 43: Apple TV Is Different

The new Apple TV stands out from Apple's other products. In this episode, we discuss the Apple TV and the path taken to get to today's version, its three most important features from a strategic perspective, and where it can fit into our lives in the future. Additional discussion topics include why it's not likely Apple will change its mind and ship an Apple-branded television and where Apple obtains the most value from an Apple TV box.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 17: My Perfect TV  - Above Avalon

Behind Apple's Move to Shelve TV Plans - WSJ

Making the Case Against an Apple Television Set - Above Avalon

Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

Subscribe to Above Avalon in Overcast

Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon (posts) on Twitter

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart (producer) Twitter

Above Avalon Episode 42: The North San Jose Investigation

Over the past four months, Apple has spent more than $300 million quietly purchasing or leasing land in North San Jose. In this episode, we review these land transactions and possible reasons behind the deals. We then discuss why all signs point to an Apple Car R&D facility as the most likely reason for Apple's North San Jose activity. After going over some of the data used to reach this conclusion, we take a broader look at Apple's growth trends and what they may mean for Apple's culture. We conclude with how a North San Jose R&D facility may fit structurally within Apple's organization as well as its connection to Apple Campus 2. 

Show Notes:

Decoding Apple's North San Jose Land Mystery - Above Avalon

Apple Targets Electric-Car Shipping Date for 2019 - WSJ

Above Avalon Episode 36: Apple's Largest Startup - Above Avalon

Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

Subscribe to Above Avalon in Overcast

Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart on Twitter

Above Avalon Episode 41: Apple's Record Stock Buyback

Tim Cook and Luca Maestri were busy buying back AAPL shares this past summer. In this episode, we take a closer look at Apple's share buyback program. We answer three questions: Why is Apple buying back its stock? How is Apple buying back stock? Does it make sense for Apple to buy back its stock? We then focus on Apple's record pace of stock buyback this past August and September and what it suggests about management's view on Apple's future.  

Show Notes:

Apple Is Buying Shares Like There's No Tomorrow - Above Avalon

Large M&A Is Not in Apple's DNA: Case Study of Why Apple Won't Buy Tesla - Above Avalon

Apple's Cash Dilemma - Above Avalon

The New Apple Era - Above Avalon

Apple's Stock Buyback Program Primer (seven chapters meant to be used as a primer to become familiar with Apple's share buyback - member email) - Above Avalon

Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

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Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart on Twitter

Above Avalon Episode 40: How Is Apple Doing?

An Apple's earnings report represents a snapshot of how business has performed over the previous three months. In this week's episode, instead of going over all of the numbers and details from Apple's 4Q15 earnings report, we ask a very simple question: How is Apple doing? By looking at the iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch, we reach some conclusions regarding how Apple is doing in its quest to make technology more personal. We also briefly discuss 2016 financial trends, including slowing growth metrics. We conclude with my grand theory on what is happening to Apple in today's society and where the most risk to Apple resides.

Show Notes:

Apple 4Q15 Earnings (member email) - Above Avalon

Leasing Solves Apple's Cheap iPhone Dilemma - Above Avalon

Finding iPad's Future - Above Avalon

Apple Watch Is Being Severely Underestimated - Above Avalon

The New Apple Era - Above Avalon

Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

Subscribe to Above Avalon in Overcast

Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart on Twitter

Above Avalon Episode 39: The iPhone Mission

The smartphone industry is once again showing signs of change. The speed at which the U.S. has embraced annual smartphone upgrades, in addition to the new smartphone landscape in China, show that the market is neither static nor set in stone. In this episode, we go over the three goals that comprise Apple's iPhone mission. What are the things that drive Apple's long-term vision for iPhone? We discuss how Apple thinks about personal technology, cheap vs. used iPhones, and keeping the iPhone experience alive. We conclude with a brief discussion on Apple's upcoming earnings and why these quarterly reports have taken on a different feel lately. More specific expectations for iPhone and Apple Watch unit sales are also referenced. 

Show Notes:

Leasing Solves Apple's Cheap iPhone Dilemma - Above Avalon

Complete 4Q15 AAPL Earnings Estimate, Expanded Thursday Q&A (member email) - Above Avalon

Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

Subscribe to Above Avalon in Overcast

Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart on Twitter

Above Avalon Episode 38: Good Design Changes the World

Apple has thrust the topic of design into today's society. In Episode 38, we take a closer look at how design can marginalize industries and in the process change the world. After briefly discussing what constitutes good design, we use the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch as case studies for how Apple positions design as a way to alter an industry's value proposition. We also connect good design to the start-up mentality found with Project Titan (Episode 36) to explain Apple's secrets to success. Additional commentary found in this episode includes Dieter Rams' 10 principles of good design, Elon Musk's recent criticism of Apple resulting from frustration, and reasons why good design needs to include a high level of risk.  

Show Notes:

Apple Uses Good Design to Marginalize Industries - Above Avalon

Dieter Rams: ten principles for good design - Vitsoe

Jony Ive and Marc Newson discuss the design, usability, and materials of Apple Watch - 9to5Mac

Apple Is Building Its Largest Startup Ever - Above Avalon

All Charged Up in Berlin (Elon Musk interview) - Handelsblatt

Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon

Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes

Subscribe to Above Avalon in Overcast

Podcast RSS (for your favorite podcast player)

Above Avalon Podcast on Twitter

Neil Cybart on Twitter