AirPods Are the Anti-Apple Watch, Mixed Signals for Early iPhone 7 Demand, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AirPods Are the Anti-Apple Watch
- Mixed Signals for Early iPhone 7 Demand
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's update with a continuation of the discussion found in my "AirPods" article. Specifically, we go over my observations that Apple is using a completely different strategy in terms of unveiling and selling AirPods compared to the initial Apple Watch. The email then turns to T-Mobile and Sprint saying iPhone 7 demand is breaking records. There is evidence to suggest it is premature to draw conclusions about overall iPhone 7 demand from their announcements. We end the email with this week's installment of member Q&A where I answer the following question from an Above Avalon member: Why did Apple expand the number of iPhone launch countries when they are never able to meet demand at launch?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
New Project Titan Details, The Project Titan "Reboot," Project Titan Is a Platform
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- New Project Titan Details
- The Project Titan "Reboot"
- Project Titan Is a Platform
We begin today's update with a closer look at the Autocar article about Project Titan. There were a number of new details concerning Apple's plans for Titan that caught my attention. We also discuss my theory about Apple's fleet of "mapping" vehicles. The email then turns to The New York Times article focused on Project Titan running into issues, including a reboot. There are a few reasons why I disagree with the The New York Times' assessment of the situation. We conclude with my thoughts on how I view Apple's electric car plans and why it is incorrect to think of Project Titan as just one product.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Apple Ends Opening Weekend iPhone Sales Disclosure, iPhone Upgrade Program Turmoil, A Black Eye for "Apple as a Service"
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Ends Opening Weekend iPhone Sales Disclosure
- iPhone Upgrade Program Turmoil
- A Black Eye for "Apple as a Service"
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Apple's announcement that it will no longer disclose opening weekend iPhone sales. We take a deep dive into this long-standing tradition including what opening weekend iPhone sales reflected and why they were actually useful for Apple investors. I also share the reasoning behind Apple's move to end the disclosure practice. The update then shifts to the iPhone Upgrade Program and what is turning into a big problem for Apple. The company was hit with a class action lawsuit yesterday regarding the iPhone Upgrade Program. I discuss my experience with the Upgrade Program, the problems seen with preordering the iPhone 7 Plus, and also the changes that are needed. We conclude with why the iPhone Upgrade Program is giving the "Apple as a Service" theory a big black eye.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Apple Keynote: Detailed Thoughts and Observations
Today's story:
- The Apple Keynote: Detailed Thoughts and Observations
While Thursday's daily update was focused on the major themes from Apple's keynote, today's update includes more granular thoughts and observations from the presentation.
This story is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read this story and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Apple Keynote: Major Themes
Today's daily update is focused on reviewing the Apple keynote. Along with a big picture overview and observations from attending the event, the email covers five major themes from Apple's presentation:
- Apple Buzz
- The Apple Watch Balancing Act
- The New Normal for iPhone
- AirPods: Apple's Second Wearable Device
- Apple's Unusual Strategy with Beats
Monday's daily update will include additional thoughts and observations on Apple's WWDC keynote.
The full daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read this daily update and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Previewing Apple's September 2016 Keynote, Thoughts Heading into the Event, Surprises and Wild Cards
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Previewing Apple's September 2016 Keynote
- Thoughts Heading into the Event
- Surprises and Wild Cards
Today's update is dedicated to previewing tomorrow's Apple hardware keynote. We begin by putting tomorrow's event in context and why this annual September event is still incredibly important for Apple. The email then turns to my expectations and thoughts about what to expect tomorrow. We go into detail about Apple's plan for iPhone and Apple Watch. We conclude by discussing a few potential surprises and wild cards, including my thoughts on where the Mac and iPad currently stand. Thursday's daily update will be dedicated to going over the Apple keynote in detail.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read this daily update and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Fitbit Announces Charge 2 and Flex 2, The Samsung Gear S3 Smartwatch, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Fitbit Announces Charge 2 and Flex 2
- The Samsung Gear S3 Smartwatch
- Thursday Q&A (iPhone Financials Edition)
We kick off today's update with a closer look at the new Fitbit health and fitness trackers. The company unveiled the Charge 2 and Flex 2. After going over some of the details for each product, I share my thoughts on the new products and what they mean for Fitbit and Apple in the wearables space. The email then turns to Samsung's new Gear S3 smartwatch. There were a few things about the watch that caught my attention. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Why did you update iPhone estimates right before next week's iPhone event?
- If this year's iPhone update seems lackluster, which metric do you think that would affect the most - new users or the upgrade rate?
- Can you rate your conservatism with these iPhone estimates?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The European Commission's Ireland/Apple Decision, Tim Cook's Blistering Response, Google Is Going After Uber
Today's Above Avalon stories:
The European Commission's Ireland/Apple Decision
Tim Cook's Blistering Response
Google Is Going After Uber
We begin today's update by going into detail about the European Commission's decision regarding Ireland giving illegal state aid to Apple. We go over near-term and long-term Apple implications, including how the decision relates to Apple's current tax rate, accrued taxes, and overall EPS. The email then turns to Tim Cook's response to the European Commission. I also share my view on this entire situation involving Ireland, Apple, taxes, and the EU. The email concludes with a closer look at how Google is going after Uber in the U.S. by expanding its Waze carpooling service. I share my thoughts on the move and the major themes becoming visible in the transportation industry in recent months.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 950 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Calculating the iPhone Installed Base, Segmenting iPhone Users by Upgrade Cycles, New 2016 and 2017 iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Calculating the iPhone Installed Base
- Segmenting iPhone Users by Upgrade Cycles
- New 2016 and 2017 iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's update is focused on iPhone financials. We begin by going over my new financial model for estimating the iPhone installed base. We discuss my methodology, the growth in the installed base over time, and my estimate for the iPhone installed base as of September 2016. The email then goes over one method to segment iPhone users according to iPhone upgrade cycles. We conclude with a look at my new iPhone sales estimates for FY2016 and FY2017 and a few overall thoughts about the iPhone business given my new financial models.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Industrial Design Is Gaining Power at Apple, Preparing for EU's Decision on Apple/Ireland Tax Deal, Apple Working on New Social Features
Today's Above Avalon stories:
Industrial Design Is Gaining Power at Apple
Preparing for EU's Decision on Apple/Ireland Tax Deal
Apple Working on New Social Features
We kick off today's update by continuing the discussion found in my article "Jony Ive Is Making People Uneasy." Specifically, we look at the Apple Industrial Design (ID) group's major initiatives for the next five years. We also discuss how a more powerful ID can exist within a company moving more into services and content. The email then turns to what appears to be an imminent ruling from the European Commission concerning Ireland's tax dealings with Apple. We discuss my expectation for the ruling and how it may impact Apple. We conclude with a look at Bloomberg's new report on Apple developing new social features for iOS, including possibly a stand-alone app to rival Snapchat. There were a few aspects of the article that didn't sit well with me.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 950 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple Opens Up About AI, Apple Changes Retail Branding, Thursday Q&A (Car Edition)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Opens Up About AI
- Apple Changes Retail Branding
- Thursday Q&A (Car Edition)
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Steve Levy's piece about Apple AI. Needless to say, the article has received quite the polarizing reaction. The email then shifts to news that Apple is removing "Store" from its retail branding. We go over my thoughts on the change and why I think this is the latest sign of continued shift in Apple Retail strategy. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Who would realistically buy Lyft for $9 billion?
- Which is most important: autonomous driving, electric vehicles, or ridesharing networks?
- Can you describe your daily transportation usage? Do you think your routine impacts the way you are thinking about the transportation industry?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Frank Ocean Exclusive, Apple's War Against Music Labels, The Spotify Squeeze
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Frank Ocean Exclusive
- Apple's War Against Music Labels
- The Spotify Squeeze
We kick off today's daily update with a closer look at Apple Music's Frank Ocean exclusive. Apple just pulled off one of the best marketing campaigns I have seen in the music industry. We go over some of the interesting details behind the exclusive and what it means for Apple's music streaming ambitions. The email then turns to why I think Apple has declared war on the music labels. Apple's end goal: Control the music industry. We conclude with my thoughts on how Spotify is being squeezed by the record labels because of Apple's presence in music streaming.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Uber Buys Otto, Partners with Volvo; Apple Passes on Lyft Acquisition; Ford's New Master Plan
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Uber Buys Otto, Partners with Volvo
- Apple Passes on Lyft Acquisition
- Ford's New Master Plan
We begin today's transportation-focused update with a look at Uber's announcement that it acquired Otto and will partner with Volvo in order to have an autonomous vehicle by 2021. We then discuss the various reports indicating that a number of tech companies, including Apple, were approached by Lyft for acquisition talks. We go over this news from the perspective of Apple. The email concludes with a deep dive into Ford's new master plan for the next five to 10 years involving autonomous driving and ridesharing. We go over my thoughts on the plan and what it means for the other major transportation players.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Tim Cook Interview, An Inside Look at Apple, Berkshire Hathaway Increases AAPL Stake
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Tim Cook Interview
- An Inside Look at Apple
- Berkshire Hathaway Increases AAPL Stake
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Tim Cook's extensive interview with The Washington Post. After discussing the major theme from the interview, we go over the parts that I found most interesting. The email then turns to Bob Messerschmidt's inside account of what it was like to work with Jony Ive on Apple Watch. The former sensor technologies manager shared eight lessons he learned about Apple. I share my perspective on his comments and the disagreements I have with some of his conclusions. We finish with news of Berkshire Hathaway increasing its AAPL stake and why I continue to think Berkshire's AAPL purchases symbolize a new era for AAPL shares.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Eddy Cue's Interesting Interview with Fast Company, Apple Working on New Health Device, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Eddy Cue's Interesting Interview with Fast Company
- Apple Working on New Health Device
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Eddy Cue's interview with Fast Company. I provide perspective and reactions to the parts of the interview that stood out to me. Needless to say, it was an intriguing interview. The email then shifts to news that Apple is working on an entirely new hardware device focused on health. We break down the report, ending with what I think is the most likely explanation for what kind of product is under development. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following question from an Above Avalon member:
When it comes to Project Titan, will Apple look to launch a level 4 autonomous car at the beginning or settle with a transitional product at launch?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.