Above Avalon Episode 89: The iPad Asterisk

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Grading Tim Cook (Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 88: Grading Tim Cook

January 20, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Tim Cook is a different type of CEO leading a different kind of company. In episode 88, we tackle the difficult task of grading Tim Cook's performance as Apple CEO. The discussion includes a broader look at Apple's leadership structure and evidence that Cook relies on an inner circle to lead Apple's operations and corporate strategy. The episode concludes with a closer look at seven key criteria used to judge Apple's performance, including a report card for Cook's inner circle. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

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Shape of Things to Come - The New Yorker (Jony Ive profile)

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The Battle Lines in Tech are Being Redrawn

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Above Avalon Episode 87: Change Is in the Air

January 13, 2017 by Neil Cybart

Episode 87 is focused on how the competitive landscape in tech is changing. As Apple celebrates the tenth anniversary of the iPhone unveiling, the battle for our attention is broadening into a massive land grab for the most valuable real estate in our lives. After going over the winners in the current tech landscape, we look at some of the key factors that are redrawing the competitive lines. We then spend time focused on the three main areas of competition: the body, automobile, and home. The episode concludes with a discussion of this new landscape from the perspective of Apple. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

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Apple Questions for 2017 (Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 86: Apple Questions for 2017

January 06, 2017 by Neil Cybart

January is a great time to embrace the unknown found with a new calendar year. One way of doing this is to come up with a list of questions for the new year. In episode 86, we discuss my list of Apple questions for 2017. Topics include iPhone, Apple Watch, AirPods, Mac, iPad, Apple TV, iOS 11, Apple Music, Services, Project Titan, Wall Street, Apple Industrial Design, and a few wildcards. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 83: Milking the iPhone

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 85: AirPods and the Battle for Our Ears

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 79: Apple's Trojan Horse into Hollywood

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 74: Jony Ive Is Making People Uneasy

Thoughts and Observations on Apple's 2016 (daily update for members)

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AirPods Kick off Apple's Battle for Our Ears (Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 85: AirPods and the Battle for Our Ears

December 23, 2016 by Neil Cybart

In episode 85, we go over how AirPods kick off Apple's battle for our ears. After discussing Apple's motivation behind AirPods, we go over my initial impressions from using AirPods for the past week. We then follow a few additional points, including my thoughts on AirPods sales estimates and how AirPods represent a window into a wearables world. The episode concludes with a look at how AirPods are Apple's flagship weapon in its quest for our ears. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 76: A irPods

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The Elephant in the Smartwatch Room (Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 84: The Elephant in the Smartwatch Room

December 16, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 84 is focused on analyzing the smartwatch industry. Apple is consolidating power within the smartwatch industry at an alarming rate. We begin with a refresher as to the motivation and rationale for smartwatches in a smartphone world. The discussion then turns to smartwatch industry sales data with a closer look at the winners and losers. Next, we go over the four factors that best explain why Apple Watch is the best-selling smartwatch. The episode concludes with my thoughts and observations on new developments that will impact where the smartwatch market is headed. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 78: Apple Is Going After Fitbit

New FY2017 and FY2018 Apple Watch Estimates (Daily Update)

Apple Expects Record Apple Watch Sales (Daily Update)

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M ilking the iPhone - Above Avalon Weekly Article

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Above Avalon Episode 83: Milking the iPhone

December 09, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Apple is betting now is the time to double down on the iPhone to build one of the world's most formidable tech ecosystems. Episode 83 begins with a discussion of Apple's iPhone strategy. The company has learned from mistakes made with the Mac in the early 1990s. We then discuss Apple's quest for new users and why Tim Cook shouldn't be judged as a product visionary or salesperson. The episode then discusses the cracks forming at Apple's edges and why it feels like something is off with Apple. Additional topics include the major risk Apple is facing by doubling down on the iPhone and the company's need to attack itself in order to remain relevant. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 5 7: The iPhone 5s Successor

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 5 4: Tim Cook's Legacy

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 6 7: Apple's Post-iPhone Era

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Above Avalon Is Officially Sustainable

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Above Avalon Episode 82: Above Avalon 101

November 25, 2016 by Neil Cybart

In this special edition episode, the focus is on Above Avalon. I recently celebrated the second-year anniversary of launching Above Avalon. Topics include the motivation behind starting Above Avalon, business models, and my philosophy on Apple analysis. The episode then covers my top five Apple observations since launching Above Avalon in 2014. We conclude with a brief discussion on the changing media landscape, including the Apple rumor/news cottage industry. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Turns Two

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Skating to the Apple Car Puck - Above Avalon Weekly Article

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Above Avalon Episode 81: Skating to the Apple Car Puck

November 18, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 81 is focused on Apple's changing Project Titan strategy. We begin by discussing Apple's initial car strategy and early momentum. The episode then discusses the various problems that began to appear with Project Titan at the end of 2015. We introduce the infamous "skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been" quote and how it can be applied to electric cars. The episode concludes with a look at all of the change taking place within the car industry and how Project Titan has been impacted. Apple miscalculated the car puck and is in the process of resetting its goals to reflect the changing environment. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 63: Speed Dating Didi

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 62: Apple Is Going to Pivot

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 60: The Car's "iPhone" Moment

iPhone Introduction - 2007 (Video)

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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 44: The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products

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Above Avalon Episode 80: Let's Talk the New MacBook Pro

November 04, 2016 by Neil Cybart

I am back from Cupertino and Apple's Mac keynote. Episode 80 is focused on the new MacBook Pro. We begin the episode with a few observations I had after attending the presentation. The conversation then turns to defining the Mac within Apple's product line. The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products is revisited to assess how the Mac has been doing in relation to the iPad and iPhone. After going over three possible paths forward for the Mac, we spend time discussing which option Apple chose and why the new MacBook Pro is such a big bet for Apple. After discussing Microsoft Surface Studio, the episode concludes with a look at The Apple Innovation Feedback Loop that ties everything together. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Apple Is Placing a Big Bet with the New MacBook Pro (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Apple's Trojan Horse into Hollywood (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 79: Apple's Trojan Horse into Hollywood

October 21, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 79 is focused on Apple's video content strategy. Signs point to Apple building its own Hollywood arm dedicated to original content. After going over Apple's long history of trying to rethink TV and video content, we discuss why video content is so important to Apple. We then discuss Apple's current video strategy, which includes a twist involving Apple Music and a dedicated Apple Studios division within Apple. The discussion then turns to the question of whether or not Apple should acquire Netflix to kick its video strategy into high gear. We conclude with a big picture view of how Apple looks at original video content within its boarder product lineup. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

The Apple Services Myth

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Apple Is Going After Fitbit (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 78: Apple Is Going After Fitbit

October 08, 2016 by Neil Cybart

There is only one genuine battle for the wrist, and it is between Fitbit and Apple Watch. Episode 78 is all about Apple Watch Series 2 and Apple putting Apple Watch on a fitness detour. We begin by going over the impressions I get from using Apple Watch Series 2 for the past few weeks. The discussion turns to the strategy behind the new Apple Watches. We then take a deep dive into the Apple Watch's competitive landscape and why Fitbit is being underestimated. The episode concludes with a closer at why Fitbit is succeeding and Apple's goal in going after Fitbit. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

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Above Avalon Podcast Episode 73: The Art of Simplicity

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iPhone 7 (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 77: Let's Talk iPhone 7

September 30, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 77 is all about iPhone 7. Since the iPhone 7 should not be discussed in isolation, we begin the episode by going over some of the major themes impacting the iPhone business over the past year. The discussion turns to the impressions I get from using a Jet Black iPhone 7 Plus for the past two weeks. We then take a deep dive into the dual-camera system found with the Plus model and go over why I think the feature is such a big deal. The episode concludes with some big picture ideas as to how we will look back at the iPhone 7 in a few years. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 55: Let's Talk 4-Inch iPhones

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 57: The iPhone 5s Successor

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 67: Apple's Post-iPhone Era

Estimating Opening Weekend iPhone 7 Sales (Above Avalon member daily update)

Early Estimates for iPhone Sales Growth (Above Avalon member daily update)

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AirPods (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 76: AirPods

September 16, 2016 by Neil Cybart

I am back from San Francisco. In episode 76, we discuss the most intriguing new product to be unveiled at Apple's keynote. AirPods are not just a pair of bluetooth headphones or an iPhone accessory. Instead, AirPods represent Apple's second wearables platform. After going over my experience using AirPods, we dive into the strategy behind the product. We discuss how Apple will likely expand AirPods into a platform as they did with Apple Watch. The discussion then turns to my view on the upcoming Apple Experience era and where AirPods fit into Apple's future product portfolio. To become an Above Avalon member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

WWDC Clues Hint at Apple's Post-iPhone Era

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 67: Apple's Post-iPhone Era

AirPods Are the Anti-Apple Watch (Above Avalon member daily update)

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The Apple Services Myth (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 75: The Apple Services Myth

September 02, 2016 by Neil Cybart

The narrative surrounding Apple Services has taken on a life of its own. In episode 75, we dispel the myth that Apple is becoming a services company. After discussing how this myth began, we take a closer look at the actual story involving Apple services. The episode then covers Apple's long-standing goals for services and why Apple will end up doubling down on hardware in order to grow its services business. Additional topics include the logic behind Apple getting involved with music and video, "Apple as a service," and Project Titan's potential involvement with services down the road. To become an Above Avalon member, visit: AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 51: Apple's Broken Narrative

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Jony Ive Is Making People Uneasy (Above Avalon Weekly Article)

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Above Avalon Episode 74: Jony Ive Is Making People Uneasy

August 26, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 74 is dedicated to discussing how Jony's power and control within Apple is increasingly making people uncomfortable with the company's direction. Apple has doubled down on its design-led philosophy. We go over the history of why Steve Jobs gave power to Apple's industrial designers and why this is now leading to Apple receiving a growing amount of criticism from some of its most loyal users. We then take a closer look at Apple's product line to see how some of the most widely-held points of criticism ultimately lead back to Jony. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 6: Jony Ive

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 45: People Love Accessories

Above Avalon Podcast Episode 54: Tim Cook's Legacy

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Apple Watch Is Already a $10 Billion Business

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Above Avalon Episode 73: The Art of Simplicity

August 12, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Apple Watch and Apple Music shared something in common with each other in the beginning. They lacked simplicity. After going over the definition of simplicity, we dissect where Apple Watch and Apple Music lack simplicity and what I suspect contributed to this situation. We then look at Apple's WWDC keynote this past June to see how Apple plans on addressing this lack of simplicity. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

The Art of Simplicity

Apple Uses Good Design to Marginalize Industries

Above Avalon Episode 38: Good Design Changes the World

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The iPad's Dark Days Are Over

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Above Avalon Episode 72: Let's Talk iPad

August 05, 2016 by Neil Cybart

The iPad has turned the corner. In episode 72, we take a look at the iPad business and the factors that give me confidence that fundamental elements of the business are beginning to improve. The episode begins with an overview of the iPad's early days and vast promise. This is followed by a discussion of why the iPad mini marked a turning point that kicked off the product's dark days. After going over the iPad's problems in recent years, we discuss the three reasons that give me confidence the iPad is moving to a point of stabilization. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Thoughts on iPad

Finding iPad's Future

Peak iPad Mini

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Above Avalon Episode 70: The Wall Street Expectations Game

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Above Avalon Episode 71: Apple's Earnings Surprise

July 30, 2016 by Neil Cybart

In this special edition episode, we discuss the primary theme from Apple's 3Q16 earnings. Even though Apple reported its weakest quarter in 15 years, AAPL shares increased as the company beat Wall Street expectations. Upon closer examination, it would appear that this expectations surprise had more to do with near-term results than 2017 trends. We then look at the iPhone business with a focus on the company's channel inventory drawdown and 4Q revenue guidance to reach a deeper understanding of how Apple management may be navigating Wall Street's expectations. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

iPhone Warning Signs

Apple 3Q16 Earnings Review: Major Themes

Apple 3Q16 Earnings Review: Details

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The Great Apple Expectations Reset

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Above Avalon Episode 70: The Wall Street Expectations Game

July 22, 2016 by Neil Cybart

Episode 70 takes a closer look at how expectations guide Wall Street. We discuss AAPL's transformation from a growth stock to a value stock, focusing on the contributing factors that led to the reset. We then discuss the framework underpinning Wall Street's expectations game and how management teams have a better chance at succeeding in the game. We conclude with implications resulting from Apple becoming a value stock. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com/membership.

Show Notes:

Above Avalon Episode 51: Apple's Broken Narrative

Above Avalon Episode 67: Apple's Post-iPhone Era

Examining Apple's Dividend Strategy

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